De'Aaron Fox O/U 29.5 Points vs. Timberwolves
The Timberwolves allow the most points per game (PPG) over the last five contests (121.8) and the most in the previous 10 outings (124.3). Fox has been on a tear, going for 30-plus points in five of the last seven games and 23 and 27 in the two Unders.
Fox scored 31 points in the only meeting with Minnesota this season, plus 22 and 31 points in 2019-20 against the Timberwolves. Fox posted 31 points and nine assists in the last meeting and averaged 28.0 points and 7.3 assists in the previous three.
NBC's model projects Fox to score 28.3 points in 37 minutes. However, on the month, Fox has played eight straight games of 37 or more minutes and averaged 30.5 PPG. He has gone Over 29.5 in five of those eight games. Fox is projected to be the second-highest scorer behind Zion Williamson tonight.
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The Timberwolves allow opponents to hit 49.6% of field goals (27th) and the Kings are last (50.5%). Minnesota is 29th in opponent three-point percentage in that span (44.2%) and the most assists in the league at 30.2.
Fox's Points and Assists prop has moved from 34.5 in his last game to 37.5 for this contest. While that is too high despite him going Over in five of the last eight, I do not want to get caught chasing.
On the other hand, his point total has steadily increased from 26.5 to 29.5 over the last eight games. Fox should go for at least 26 points in this matchup, which would be his lowest total in six games.
The Wolves allow the seventh-most PPG to point guards (25.0) and sixth-most to shooting guards (23.93), so there will be plenty of scoring chances. I like the chances Fox goes for 30-plus points again.
In the last five games, Minnesota allowed the Clippers' Paul George to score 23 points in 27 minutes and the Heat's Jimmy Butler did 30 points in 39 minutes. The Bucks' Khris Middleton dropped 27 points in 25 minutes, the Nets' Kevin Durant scored 31 points over 27 minutes and the Bulls' Zach LaVine had 30 points in 36 minutes against the Timberwolves.
Fox should be the next in line to hit the 30-point mark in a more competitive game. He will also play more minutes than all of those listed players, besides Jimmy Buckets, who played 39 minutes.
Fox has scored 27, 33, 37 and 32 points in his last four games of 40 or more minutes. If Fox does play more than the previously mentioned players, he should be starting a new 30 point streak against Minnesota.
Pick: De'Aaron Fox Over 29.5 Points (1u)
Karl-Anthony Towns O/U 11.5 Rebounds vs. Kings
Karl-Anthony Towns has a very favorable matchup heading into tonight's contests with the Sacramento Kings. We hit a similar bet on Deandre Ayton Over 10.5 Rebounds versus the Kings and the books have prepared for the same outcome.
The Kings allow the second-most rebounds per game over the last five games (48.0) and 10 games (49.0). Towns recorded 10 or more rebounds in 12 of the last 14 games and 12 or more in 10 contests.
The game totals set for 237.0, so expect a fast pace, tons of shots and nobody on Sacramento to contend in the paint with Towns. Minnesota allows the most PPG over the last five contests (121.8) and the most in the previous 10 (124.3) and Sacramento 26th or worse in that span.
This season, Towns totaled 13 boards against the Kings in addition to 23 points. In his previous six games versus Sacramento prior to this season, Towns has had a roller-coaster of performances with 8, 10, 11, 14, 19 and 21 boards in those contests.
Towns averages 11.2 boards when he plays 30-39 minutes and he has only played 25 and 26 in his last two. Not once has he played that low of minutes in two straight games this season, so expect a dosage of 35-plus minutes against a Kings team that lost nine straight before its last outing.
The Kings allow the most rebounds per game to centers (16.97) and have steadily been getting wrecked on the boards to opposing big men.
The Mavericks' Kristaps Porzingis grabbed 11 boards, the Suns' Ayton had 11, the Wizards' Alex Len posted 10 and Pelicans' Steven Adams recorded 16 in the last four games. Add in the Jazz's Rudy Gobert (11), the Pistons' Isaiah Stewart (13) and, of course, Towns (13). There has been plenty of success in backing the opposing center to go over his rebounding total or fading Sacramento in general.
I took Towns Over 11.5 Rebounds for one unit and would play 12.5 for 0.5u or less once the line moves.
Pick: Karl-Anthony Towns Over 11.5 Rebounds (1u)
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