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Damian Lillard
Jaime Valdez-USA TODAY Sports
Odds and Ends

Lillard vs Mavs, Spurs and Hornets

by Vaughn Dalzell
Updated On: February 14, 2021, 7:37 pm ET

Top Game to Bet: Spurs (-2) at Hornets

If you missed the Hornets versus Timberwolves on Friday, you missed one heck of a game. The Hornets had a lot of energy in the 120-114 home win over the Timberwolves as the No. 1 (Anthony Edwards) and No. 3 (LaMelo Ball) overall picks matchup up.

The Hornets will not have much to look forward to in this matchup as the Spurs are one of the NBA's best road teams this season. San Antonio is 8-3 SU on the road this season, winning their last two over Atlanta and Houston. In the Spurs 11 road games, they allow 109.5 points per game (7th) and score 113.2 per contest (11th). 

Between the Hornets and Spurs, the Under has hit in four of the last five meetings. In the previous 14 trips to Charlotte, the Under is 9-4-1. Before the Spurs 125-114 win over the Hawks, they had four straight games finish Under 220 total points.

For the Hornets, two of their last three home games have gone Under 217 point. The Under 229 has hit in five of the last eight home games in Charlotte this season. The Under is 5-1-1 in the Hornets' last seven games versus a team with a winning road record. 

The Hornets added Gordon Hayward to the injury report with lower back discomfort, deeming him probable then out versus the Spurs. P.J. Washington, Caleb and Cody Martin are all out due to health safety protocols. San Antonio enter this meeting healthy but 1-4 ATS in the last five trips to Charlotte. 

While this game was a toss-up, now pointing to San Antonio with Hayward out, you can expect both teams to come out slow. The Hornets rank 19th with 56.0 points per first half and the Spurs 21st at 55.5 points. If the first half Under 112.0 total hits, expect the full game to be a breeze. Play the Under down to 225.

Bet Locked In: Under 228.5 (1u), Spurs ML (0.5u)

 

Top Team to Fade: Memphis Grizzlies

This game all depends on whether or not De'Aaron Fox suits up for Sacramento. Memphis is 0-4 ATS in the last four games in Sacramento and 1-5 ATS in the last six meetings overall. The Grizzlies have lost five of their last six games entering this matchup. On the other hand, the Kings are streaking at 7-3 SU over the previous 10 games but 0-2 in the last two.

Memphis allows the second-highest opponent field goal percentage (51.7%) in the last five games and third-highest three-point percentage (42.5%). The Grizzlies also allow 118.0 points per game in that span, 25th overall. The Kings offense has ranked top 12 over the last 10 games in an array of categories but most importantly, field goal percentage (12th), rebounds per game (T-7th), field goals made per game (7th) and assists per game (8th). 

Fox is a key piece to the teams' success and over the last five games as he has lit it up on more than one occasion. Fox averaged 31.6 points, 9.0 assists and 3.4 rebounds per game during that span and has scored 30 or more in four of his last six games. Fox has three double-doubles in the previous five games and scored 22, 25, 26 and 27 points in four meetings against Memphis last season --three wins.

Since February has hit, Memphis is 2-5 SU over the last seven games and 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall. I am backing the Kings ML (-106) if Fox plays to cover against the Grizzlies once again.

Bet Locked In: Kings ML (1u) - IF De'Aaron Fox plays

 

Sunday Betting Notes:

Pelicans at Pistons: Pelicans -4.5

New Orleans is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings in Detroit. In the last 16 overall, the Pelicans are 11-5 ATS. Pelicans bettors should be excited. Detroit is much better than their 7-19 record on the season indicates, and New Orleans needs a win after losing two straight after four consecutive wins.

Detroit is 2-5 SU in the last seven and 2-1 over their last three games. New Orleans has allowed 129 and 143 points per game over the previous two outings, while Detroit has scored 95 and 108. The Pelicans have won five of the last seven games versus the Pistons and I like that to continue today.

Brandon Ingram has scored 20 or more points in seven straight games for the Pelicans and nine of the last 10. Zion Williamson has scored 20 or more in five of the previous six games and eight of the last 10 overall. I like both of them to continue their scoring streaks against Detroit. On FanDuel, you can same game parlay the two Pelicans stars to score 20 points in this matchup for -116 odds.

 

Blazers at Mavericks: Blazers +5

The Mavericks are coming off four straight wins and 143 points scored in their previous outing. Dallas is 6-10 ATS after scoring 130 or more points since Doncic has been drafted. They are 0-1 this season, failing to cover versus Minnesota (127-122) on Monday. The Over is 5-0 in the last five meetings between Dallas and Portland. Dallas is on a six-game Over run, while Portland is 4-1 to the Over in the last five road games.

Damian Lillard scored 28, 34, 47 and 61 points in four meetings with the Mavericks last season. In 2018-19, Lillard scored 30, 33, 33 and 33 points yet again on Dallas. In 2017-18, 29, 29 and 31 points. Lillard has scored at least 28 points against Dallas in 14 of the last 15 meetings, an insane number. 

Dallas allows the sixth-most three-pointers made to point guards (23.35) on the season. The Mavs allow the most points per game to teams over the last five games (129.6), and the second-highest three-point percentage to opponents in that span (44.2%), plus the third-highest field-goal percentage (51.5%). Lillard should eat once again. I grabbed Lillard at 31.5 points and would play him up to 32.5. Lillard has scored 30 or more in three of his last five games and six of his previous 10.

Bet Locked In: Damian Lillard Over 31.5 Points (1u)

 

Timberwolves at Raptors: Raptors -8.5

The Raptors have won five of their last seven games entering this home matchup versus the Raptors. In the last 11 meetings, the Over has gone 8-3, while historically, the Timberwolves have struggled against the Raptors. In the last 31 meetings, Minnesota has only covered nine times.

Toronto is coming off a 14-point loss at Boston, while Minnesota has lost four straight and six of the last seven games. Pascal Siakam and Karl-Anthony Towns is a matchup to watch. Siakam has averaged 27.0 points over the last three games and Towns scored a season-high 25 points in his previous contest.

 

Lakers at Nuggets: Lakers -4

The Lakers are 2-6-1 ATS in the last nine meetings in Denver, but there is action moving L.A. from -3 to -4. Denver is 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall and struggling to score at 109.8 points in that span (19th). The Lakers are 11th in the last five games holding opponents to 110.4 points per game and Denver 109.6 (9th). 

The Lakers have won three straight and four of the previous five meetings between the two. Anthony Davis and LeBron James are both expected to suit up. LA has won four games by the skin of their teeth with three OT victories and a comeback for the ages against Memphis on Friday. Denver has won two straight over Cleveland and Oklahoma City after three consecutive losses. 

Vaughn Dalzell

Vaughn Dalzell is a former Division I SID, two-time IUP Alumnus and also a contributor on numberFire, FantasyPros and Bet The Prop. You can follow him on Twitter for more insight @VmoneySports.