Maryland at Michigan (-10)
What a game this should be, Michigan fresh off their first loss of the season, and Maryland is currently riding a two-game winning streak. Michigan won 11-straight before their loss on the road at Minnesota, and Maryland was on a three-game losing skid before coming away wins versus Illinois and Non-DI program Wingate.
Maryland is hoping scoring 100 points on Wingate will roll over into playing Michigan on the road. I doubt it, but I wouldn't be shocked by a quick start from the Terps. Maryland is looking to record three road wins against opponents ranked in the AP Top-25 for the first time in program history.
Maryland beat No. 6 Wisconsin and No. 12 Illinois this season already. Maryland is 4-1 in its last five road games against ranked teams dating back to 2018-19. Michigan has been excellent at home this season, going 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games. The road team has been the primary squad to bet on in this series, going 6-2 ATS in the previous eight meetings.
Michigan at home off a loss sounds pretty scary, so I don't know how much stock I can put into Maryland. The Terps do receive starting guard Eric Ayala back, but he's likely to come off the bench and play limited minutes based on his conditioning. Ayala is averaging 14.0 points, 3.0 rebounds and 2.5 assists per game this season.
If you have player props available, Maryland's Aaron Wiggins is a solid bet. He has scored at least 12 points in six of his last seven games and averaging 14.3 points, 6.0 rebounds and 2.9 assists during that span. Wiggins scored 12, 17, 21 and 22 over his last four and scored double-digits in eight of the last nine overall games.
On the road, Wiggins has averaged 13.8 points compared to 11.9. Versus BIG 10 opponents, Wiggins averages 13.0 points per game, and against Top 25, 11.0 per game. He scored only five versus Michigan, his lowest output on 2-of-11 from the field. Wiggins scored 15 points in last season's win over Michigan and 15 in his first-ever appearance versus the Wolverines.
Wiggins is averaging 10.0 points per game in four career appearances versus Michigan with five points in each of the other two games. What could be his last game versus Michigan and a dud earlier in the year, I expect Wiggins to lead the team in scoring tonight.
Michigan has won five of the last six meetings, with the Wolverines winning by seven or more in the previous three wins. Maryland beat Michigan at home 83-70 last season but lost on the road this year (84-73).
The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings, and Michigan is 7-2 ATS at home this season while Maryland is 2-3 ATS on the road. Michigan is also 3-1 ATS versus ranked opponents this season with a +12.2-point differential or win margin, while Maryland is 2-3 with a -6.7-point differential. While the -10 is semi-appealing for Michigan coming off a loss, I'll stick to live betting to garner a better value. As I wait for player props, Aaron Wiggins is going to be my play up to 14.5 points versus the Wolverines.
Game Pick: Aaron Wiggins Over Points - Playable up to 14.5 (1u), Live Betting Michigan spread or ML
Winthrop (-16) at Presbyterian
Winthrop comes into this game at an impeccable 13-0, scoring at least 70 points in every game this season. With one win inside the top 100 on the season (Furman), Winthrop hasn't garnished much respect in the Top 25 Polls.
Presbyterian is 3-5 with back-to-back losses to Campbell and a split, with Radford giving them a 1-3 mark in the last four. They've suffered three double-digit losses in five games this season and are 3-1 at home with a two-point win over Radford, and a six-point win over South Carolina State as the only DI wins this season.
The defense of Presbyterian has been subpar, ranking 332nd in defensive adjusted efficiency. The offense hasn't been great either, with two starts eating up over 50% of the minutes at their position but ranking below average in offensive rating. All 12 of Winthrop's players hold a 95 offensive rating or higher, while Presbyterian has seven-of-12.
In the last four meetings, Winthrop has won three straight and 13 of the previous 14 games. Winthrop has only won by more than 15 points in four of those 13 wins and by double-digits in eight. Winthrop has scored 72, 89, 91 and 93 points versus Presbyterian during the last four meetings.
Presbyterian returns two starters from last season's one-point and 15-point losses. One return, Zed Graham, averages 2.6 points in his previous five games and the other, Owen McCormack, recorded 11 or more points in three of his last five with one double-double.
Winthrop returns three starters, none among more impressive than Chandler Vauldrin. He recorded at least 11 or more points, five rebounds and five assists in four straight games for the Eagles.
The Over is 5-0 in Winthrop's last five road games, and when Presbyterian has been home dating back to last season, they are 9-3-1 to the Over. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the previous five meetings.
Presbyterian may have only allowed one opponent to go over 80 points this season (The Citadel, 94), but three more teams have scored 70-plus. I'm finding hard ways to come up with Presbyterian being able to stop Winthrop from scoring as the Eagles will be the highest-ranked opponent Presbyterian has faced all season — and the most talented.
Winthrop's offense is similar to The Citadel's in retrospect to numbers, which leads me to believe they can post in the ball-park numbers. The Citadel leads the entire NCAA and adjusted tempo (77.6), meaning they play fast, fast and fast. Winthrop ranks fourth in the country (76.7) and has the shortest average possession length (14.10) — The Citadel is second (14.11).
Winthrop has posted top 100 numbers in effect field goal percentage (54.5%), three-point percentage (35.7%), two-point percentage (55.1%) and top 35 in both offensive (34.0%) and defensive (21.3%) rebounding percentage. On the other hand, Presbyterian ranks 273rd or worse in all of those categories outside being 49th in offensive (33.3%) and 107th in defensive (26.0%) rebounding percentages.
If Winthrop plays at their pace, they should ideally win this game by double-digits and score 80-plus versus Presbyterian. The Team Total opened at Over 80.5 (-114), which I was all over for a 1u wager, but by the time this article was submitted, the line moved to 82.5.
At that number, It becomes more of a lean for me. If you have BetMGM, you can get the line at 79.5 (-190) and parlay it with another play or Ohio Over 69.5 (-300) Team Total bought down for +103 odds together.
Game Pick: Winthrop Team Total Over 82.5 (Lean)
Tuesday's Top Games
Purdue at Ohio State (-3.5)
Purdue has won three of the last four meetings and won two of the last three in Columbus. Ohio State is coming off a high after beating Illinois on the road without two key players in C.J. Walker and Jimmy Sotos.
This could be a letdown spot for the Buckeyes versus a Purdue team that recently had OSU's number. This series has featured six single-digit games in the last nine overall between the two. Purdue and Ohio State are on a three-game winning streak headed into this BIG 10 matchup, so all eyes will be on this nationally televised game.
In the last three home games versus Purdue, Ohio State has only mustered up 65, 67, 68 and 75 points. Ohio State is 2-2 SU in those games, and in the last 10 overall, the scores have combined to go Under the 137 total today eight times.
The Boilermakers are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games overall this season and Ohio State 4-1 ATS in their previous five. Both teams are on a roll right now, and the favorite is 3-0-1 ATS in their last four meetings pointing to Ohio State. I'd feel more comfortable live betting or taking an O/U side, but expect a close game in terms of the spread.
Tennessee (-6.5) at Florida
All of the talk centered around the Tennessee Vols died down a bit when they lost to Alabama, but since then, they've rattled off three-straight wins by five, 14 and 20. Florida is trying not to drown in the SEC after going 5-1 to start the season. The Gators have lost three of their previous four games and are currently 6-4.
This isn't an ideal spot for Florida without Scottie Lewis Jr. and Keyontae Johnson. The favorite is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings, and the Vols have covered in eight of their previous 11 this season. Florida has covered five of the previous six games following a SU loss, but they're at the butt-end of the toughest stretch in their schedule.
I would look at the Vols to cover the spread or find a way to go over 71.5 points versus the Gators. Florida has allowed six of their last seven opponents to surpass the 70-point mark.
Three Great Games to Watch for the Rest of the Week
Providence at Creighton - Wednesday, 8:00 PM ET
Creighton has won four of the last five meetings between these two programs, and surely the Blue Jays will open up as -6 point favorites or higher. Providence is playing the third of four consecutive road games, and they are 1-3 overall in their four.
Shots have not been able to drop for the Friars, going 48% (37-77) from three-point land in those games. Providence is playing at a slow pace, too, 301st in adjusted tempo (66.4) compared to Creighton's 122nd ranked mark (70.2).
Providence Head Coach Ed Cooley is 10-9 mark all-time versus Creighton and lost the last three in a row in Omaha, Nebraska. Creighton is 7-1 at home this season, with the only loss to Marquette. Providence has lost three-straight games overall and three-straight road matches headed into the second meeting of the season.
Creighton barely escaped 67-65 in the first meeting up in Rhode Island. Providence outrebounded Creighton 45-35 in that game, and that's what kept them fighting. This time around, Creighton has had two blowout wins since then and a four-point loss in OT last time out. I expect Creighton to get back in the win column, but don't count this Providence team out around March. They'll quietly get better as all six losses are against impressive squads.
Rutgers at Penn State - Thursday, 7:00 PM ET
Rutgers has had off since Friday's 60-54 home loss to Wisconsin. Rutgers is 6-3 at home this season after 18-1 last season, while one thing has stayed the same, losing on the road. Rutgers finished the season 2-8 on the road and 0-2 on neutral courts last season, while they're 1-2 this year and losers of four-straight.
Penn State has also lost four straight games and will have a date with Illinois on Tuesday, so Rutgers will have the advantage in rest, practice and film study. Rutgers lost by one at Penn State last year and split the season series the past two seasons. Penn State has only beaten VMI and VCU at home this season and has started 0-4 in conference play. Most models project it as a -1-point spread, so you can expect a low line or a pick 'em to continue betting against Rutgers on the road or with them in this head-scratcher.
Indiana at Iowa - Thursday, 8:00 PM ET
This could be one of the most thrilling games of the week as Iowa shows its dominance. The Hawkeyes are winners of five straight and projected to beat Indiana by double digits, according to most models.
Indiana is 8-6 with two losses in their last three games overall. Iowa lost to Indiana, 89-77 last season, but swept them in the 2018-19 season. Indiana has won three of the last five in this series, and all five matchups have been high-scoring. You should expect to jump on the Over when this game becomes available Thursday.
The game totals have finished at 141, 146, 149, 165 and 168 points in the last five meetings. I'm expecting a total of 150.5 to 152.5 for Iowa versus Indiana, and I would play it up to 154.5 as Iowa has scored 86 or more points in four of their last five games. Luka Garza is averaging 26.9 points, 8.7 rebounds, and 62.5% from the field in 29.5 minutes per game.