NEW YORK METS VS ATLANTA BRAVES BETTING PREVIEW
Jacob deGrom RHP (0-0, 1.64 ERA) vs Mike Soroka (0-0, 1.59 ERA)
New York’s Jacob deGrom has continued his dominance on the mound that has netted him two-straight NL Cy Young awards. As good as he has been, the righty has amassed just 21 wins in his last 66 starts as his teammates have oddly struggled to give the hurler any run support. The Braves’ Freddie Freeman is one of a small group of hitters who have had success against deGrom as the first baseman is hitting .292 over 48 at-bats with three home runs.
Mike Soroka will make his third start of the year as the young pitcher has allowed just eight hits over 11.1 innings of work with eight punchouts. One of those starts was versus this same Mets team that managed just four hits (zero walks) against Soroka in a 1-0 Braves’ win back on July 27. The Braves have also struggled to give Soroka any run support this year, scoring just two runs over the winless Canadian’s 11-plus innings.
Rain is expected in Atlanta before first pitch but should give way to clear skies around 8 PM ET. The temperature will be sitting in the low-80s at game time but with 73% humidity, it could feel four-to-five degrees hotter.
The wind won’t be much of a factor with 6 mph winds blowing from left to right field. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info
Home plate umpire
Mets: Yoenis Cespedes OF (out - personal), Marcus Stroman SP (out - calf), Noah Syndergaard SP (out - elbow), Robert Gsellman RP (out - tricep), Jake Marisnick (questionable - hamstring), Brad Brach RP (out - illness)
Braves: Ozzie Albies 2B (questionable - wrist), Will Smith RP (out - illness), Nick Markakis OF (out - personal), Cole Hamels SP (out - arm)
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The home team Braves opened as plus-money dogs (+110) which has us liking Soroka and Co. The Braves have dominated the Mets over the first three games of the series; outsourcing the New York club 22-11 and includes a five-run eighth-inning comeback to open the series.
Soroka has already proven he can go inning for inning versus deGrom as he went six innings in a 1-0 win back in the opener. The Atlanta pitcher has thrown 69 and 82 pitches in his first two starts meaning the righty should get closer to 100 pitches on Monday. We are fading the NL Cy Young winner for a club that is good at losing and has some internal problems with the Cespedes situation.
PREDICTION: Braves ML (+110)
Monday’s total of 7.5 is almost as low as it goes, but we will be watching the line and hoping it drops to 7 with two stud pitchers on the mound. deGrom is 1-1 O/U on the young season but went 18-14 O/U (7.5 totals) in 2019. The Mets are averaging nine hits per game which puts them in the league’s top three, but New York is also top three in runners left on base at over 18 a game.
We don’t see them stranding runners at such a high rate all season and as a handful of Mets players do have success versus Soroka (in limited at-bats), what better time to start cashing guys on base than now.
Even without their No.2 hitter in Ozzie Albies (questionable - wrist), there is a lot to like in the Braves’ lineup as SS Dansby Swanson slides into Albies’ spot with his .368 batting average and 1.005 OPS.
If the bottom of the order can keep the line moving and get to the potent top-of-the-order bats, Atlanta should be able to pot a few runs. We’re waiting for the total to move to 7 and then will pounce as even a 3-3 is a push at minimum, but we still like it at 7.5.
PREDICTION: Over 7.5 (-110)
FIRST FIVE INNING PICK
This may seem counterproductive to our Over 7.5 bet, but when deGrom is on the hill, you always have to give serious consideration to the first five Under. In 2018, deGrom had a run of cashing the F5 Under in 21 of 24 consecutive starts. Last year wasn’t as rewarding but still turned a profit for backers. The Mets’ ace is 1-0-1 O/U on F5 Unders to start the year and we like it again on Monday.
PREDICTION: First five innings Under 3.5 (+118)
METS VS BRAVES BETTING CARD
- Braves ML (+110)
- Over 7.5 (-117)
- First five innings Under 3.5 (+118)
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