MLB picks for July 30
“Bieber Fever” began the 2020 Big League season with a bang, as Bieber shut out K.C. over six innings allowing, just four hits in an eventual 2-0 Cleveland win in the opener.
For those who don't know, Cleveland games have stayed Under the first-five inning total in 22 of Bieber’s 33 starts last season, with a 22-9-2 run for the Under (a near 71 percent winner). Now, the Twins are not the Royals, but Bieber handled them well last season, pitching to a 3.86 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in five games against them.
This trend will also get a boost with Minnesota countering with Jose Berrios. The Twins right-hander was roughed up in his first start, but he was excellent at Target Field in last season and in four starts against Cleveland, pitched to a 2.55 ERA and a 0.89 WHIP. The Fever continues.
PREDICTION: First five innings Under 5 (-123)
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It has been a tough start to the season for everyone’s favorite darkhorse team, the Cincinnati Reds. But Mike Moustakas and Nick Senzel returned to the Reds lineup Wednesday and they immediately unloaded on the Cubs.
It won’t get any easier for the North Siders Thursday, as they face Reds’ ace Luis Castillo. The 27-year-old right-hander is coming off an excellent 2019 and continued that to open the season, allowing just one run on six hits with 11 punchouts over six innings against the Tigers.
Castillo also has pitched well at the Great American Ball Park, despite it being known as a hitter’s park. On top of all that, he pitched very well against the Cubbies last season, posting a 3.24 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in four starts.
Meanwhile, will it be another year of Good Yu Darvish, Bad Yu Darvish for Cubs fans? Well, it seemed like a mix of both in his first start, giving up three runs on six hits in just four innings, but he managed five strikeouts with no walks. He had the same theme against the Reds last year with a 4.60 ERA but a 1.02 WHIP in five starts.
With the Reds bats breaking out and Darvish’s inconsistencies, we like the value with Castillo on the mound.
PREDICTION: Reds (-120)
Dylan Bundy was one of my favorites to win Comeback Player of the Year in 2020 (is that a thing in the MLB?) after being freed from Baltimore. And he sure got his Angels career off on the right foot, allowing just one run on three hits while striking out seven in 6 2-3 innings in the Halos lone win over the A’s in their previous series. Now, Bundy will look to keep that going against the Mariners.
Seattle looks like it will be one of the worst teams in the Bigs even just a few games into the season. They’ve been mediocre offensively and strike out a bunch (not a great thing against Bundy). The pitching has been equally ugly, ranking near the bottom of the MLB in team ERA and opponent batting average.
Marco Gonzales gets the call for the M’s in this one. Gonzales gave up four runs in 4 1-3 innings to the Astros and had a 5.61 ERA against the Angels in four starts against them last season. The Halos by a couple of runs is good value.
PREDICTION: Angels -1.5 (-102)
Yesterday's MLB record: 3-0
Season MLB betting record: 13-5, +6.63 units
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MLB betting card for July 30
- Cleveland vs. Minnesota First five inning Under 5 (-123)
- Reds ML (-120)
- Angels -1.5 (-102)
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