It pays to pay attention to the opening lines.
You truly get a real sense of where the first big market positions are made. Many people wait until lunch time or even their commute home to dig into their baseball bets. It's the same thing with NFL bettors that wait until 10 minutes before kickoff to get wet.
I was hoping for a big favorite price on the Chicago White Sox for tonight's matchup against the Detroit Tigers. The Sox have won three straight scoring 24 runs over that span with countless home runs while the lowly Tigers have lost seven straight. It's a pair of first round draft picks making their Major League debuts on the mound – righty Dane Dunning against righty Casey Mize.
The first offshore line popped at White Sox -180 and that lasted all of about five minutes. Boom. They were moved to -165 almost immediately. Then this morning, when Vegas casinos posted a consensus line of Chicago -165, there was another move to Detroit. Boom. The Sox are now sitting -160 and some shops have moved them as low as -152 at Circa Sports.
Why is the line moving nearly 30 cents to a team that has lost seven straight?
Makes you wonder, doesn't it?
The markets clearly respect Mize a lot more in this spot and I definitely agree. He's got an ace caliber repertoire and he'll get to face a free-swinging Sox offense that has the fourth most strikeouts in the league. It also doesn't hurt that Chicago phenom Luis Robert is day-to-day with a wrist injury. (Edit: Robert is not in Wednesday's starting lineup).
I'm going to play the run line here for extra cushion. Play on the Tigers +1.5 runs -140.