Tis the season for ghost and goblins... and gambling! Week 9 of the NFL is here and we provide our pick predictions and best bets, from sides and totals to props and derivatives, including Lamar Jackson's rushing yards versus the Patriots and a very scary bet on the Dolphins - if you dare! Trick or Treat!
BETTING ON THE BEST
Lamar Jackson went into Seattle in Week 7 and knocked off the league’s frontrunner for MVP on the back of 116 yards rushing on 14 carries. Jackson is doing things on the ground that have never been done in the NFL, averaging 101 yards on 14 carries and 0.5 TDs over his last four games. This stretch has seen the Baltimore Ravens quarterback go 4-0 Over/Under for his rushing-yard total.**video
Jackson will have his toughest test this year versus the New England Patriots in Baltimore on Sunday night. The Pats haven’t allowed more than 18 rushing yards to a QB since Week 5, but New England hasn’t faced a talent like Jackson, who leads the league in yards per rush at 6.9 with that number jumping to 7.7 at home.
Buffalo’s Josh Allen ran for 26 yards on five carries and a score in just over two quarters in Week 4 versus the Pats, an indicator that New England can be susceptible to QB running. Grab the Over on Jackson’s rushing total on any number below 73 yards.
PRIMETIME 6-POINT TEASER
SAN FRANCISCO AT ARIZONA (SF -4): Although we think it will be difficult for San Francisco to cover double digits on a short week, four points are much more realistic against an Arizona team that is crippled at running back. The Cardinals also don’t match up well versus the Niners defensively as Kliff Kingsbury’s defensive unit ranks 26th in rush DVOA defense, giving up 130 yards on the ground per game.
NEW ENGLAND AT BALTIMORE (NE +2.5): The Pats come into Sunday night’s game as 3.5-point road favorites — their smallest spread of the year. Tom Brady & Co. have traveled well going 3-1 ATS on the road with the only ATS loss coming against the Bills. The Ravens have held opponents to just 18.7 points a game over their last three and won’t run up the score against the league’s top DVOA defense.
DALLAS at N.Y. GIANTS (DAL -1): Dallas is coming off its bye, helping the receiving corp heal up as they face a New York Giants team giving up over 30 points a game in its last three outings. The Cowboys have won the last five meetings by an average margin of 12.4 points. The Giants have to find a way to stop Dak Prescott, who is averaging 287 yards passing with seven rushing touchdowns in his last 16 games.
SELLING THE SACK STREAK
We are 3-0 in the month of October with our Over sack props and looking to push that streak to four in a game we are expecting to see quarterbacks face down.
The Carolina Panthers have gotten to opposing QBs at a league-best rate of 4.3 sacks per game while also struggling to keep Kyle Allen horizontal, surrendering seven sacks last week and eight in the previous three games.
Tennessee Titans QB Ryan Tannehill won’t fare any better come Sunday as the veteran has been sacked nine times in 10 quarters since taking over the starting job.
This total will most likely be set at 6.5 as opposed to the usual 5.5 but is still a recommended play for any bettor looking to change things up. Hit the Over.
SWIMMING WITH DOLPHINS
The New York Jets are bad. That’s not surprising. But opening as 1-point underdogs against the Miami Dolphins is a big slap to the face for Adam Gase’s squad, which has since been bet up to -3.
The New York offense has looked putrid since the Cowboys game, putting up just 15 points and 367 yards in their last two games. Over that same stretch, QB Sam Darnold’s unit has converted 4 of 20 third downs leading to a time of possession of only 24 minutes, which would rank as the worst mark in the league.
As bad as the offense is, the defense might be in worse shape heading into the Dolphins’ game. Middle Linebacker C.J. Mosley is out and defensive captain Jamal Adams seems to have lost his motivation, taking issue with being shopped at the trade deadline and had some choice words for the Jets’ GM
The spread scares us a bit considering the Dolphins’ second-half woes, but this Ryan Fitzpatrick-led offense has a great chance to top its team total of 18.5 points after getting the taste of competitive football over the last two week. Take the Dolphins team total Over 18.5.
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