Milwaukee Bucks vs Dallas Mavericks betting preview
Betting trend to know
Over is 7-1 in Mavericks last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Get the best NBA betting trends for Bucks vs. Mavericks.
Against the spread pick
If you’ve been betting on Milwaukee games so far in the bubble, please take this time to collect yourself.
The Bucks are 2-2 ATS so far, with the last two games providing massive highs and lows for Milwaukee faithful. First, the team loses outright to the Brooklyn Nets as an 18.5-point favorite then, as mentioned above, sparks thousands of Undertaker GIFs on Twitter with a second-half surge versus the Heat.
Granted, that comeback win over Miami was against a team missing two of its top players (Jimmy Butler and Goran Dragic out) and the No. 1 seed in the East has looked far from dominant four games into the seeding schedule.
Dallas enters the weekend gasping with desperation. The Mavericks (0-4 ATS) have just one win inside the bubble – an overtime victory against the Sacramento Kings – and sit seventh in the West, where they’ll likely finish the seeding schedule.
The Mavericks do have the length and versatility to keep pace and slow the Bucks’ transition game, while Milwaukee has struggled to make quick shots in the bubble, most notably from outside. Dallas’ defense is a little better than it looks at first glance due to two overtime finishes, giving up 119.25 points in regulation time.
PREDICTION: Dallas +5.5 (-110)
Milwaukee’s once-formidable defense has taken a step back in the bubble, most notably when it comes to protecting the 3-point arc.
Before the COVID-19 shutdown, the Bucks limited foes to an average of 13.7 made triples on 35.6 percent shooting. But, in the four seeding games, opponents are jacking more than 50 attempts and knocking down 18.5 of those looks from long range.
The Mavs are one of the most trigger-happy offenses from distance, launching 41.5 looks from outside and making 15.2 of those 3-point shots per game. Milwaukee watched its last two opponents knock down 21 3-pointers each and Dallas could build on that blueprint Saturday.
PREDICTION: Over 232.5 (-110)
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Player prop pick
The Bucks may not be able to keep pace with the Mavs’ 3-point firepower but have an opportunity to pick up second-chance buckets on the offensive glass.
Dallas was bullied by a bigger and stronger Clippers team on Thursday, allowing 45 rebounds including nine offensive boards. Los Angeles poured in 18 second-chance points which bodes well for the Bucks and more specifically, Giannis Antetokounmpo.
He pulled down 12 rebounds in the comeback against Miami and opened the bubble schedule with 15 and 18 boards versus the Boston Celtics and Houston Rockets. Antetokounmpo posted a 48-point, 14-rebound effort versus Dallas back in December.
The Mavericks rank 28th in the NBA in average rebounds allowed to forwards (31.1) on the season, and that’s up to 33.4 boards per game in the bubble.
PREDICTION: Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 13.5 rebounds (-135)
Bucks vs Mavericks betting card
- Dallas +5.5 (-110)
- Over 232.5 (-110)
- Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 13.5 rebounds (-135)
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