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Dallas Goedert
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Odds and Ends

NFL Bets you Need to Make in Week 17: (12/28)

by Covers.com
Updated On: December 28, 2019, 8:06 pm ET

MIXON MIXING IT UP

Cincinnati Bengals running back Joe Mixon has seen at least 20 carries in each of his last four games and has averaged nearly 22 totes a game since Week 10. On deck for the league’s seventh-most used rusher is the Cleveland Browns who gave up 243 yards on the ground last week and are surrendering a league-high 216 yards a game over the last four weeks.

Just four weeks ago, Mixon gashed the Browns for 186 total yards (146 rushing) on 23 carries and four targets. The Browns have allowed a 100-yard rusher in three straight weeks and we hope that trend continues into Week 17.

With Mixon getting in on the passing game (109 rec yards last four games), we are going to double down on his rushing total of 85.5 and his total yards of 105.5 in a plus-matchup against a team that can’t wait for the off-season.

 

LAST MAN STANDING

We backed the wrong Philadelphia Eagles tight end last week as it was Dallas Goedert and not Zach Ertz (injured) that went off. Even when Ertz was on the field, Carson Wentz looked Goedert’s way more often, targeting the tight end 12 times which he turned into a 9/91/1 in a must-win game.

This week, the Eagles will need a win to secure a playoff berth (or a Cowboys loss) and that path leads through the Giants in the Meadowlands. With Ertz a true game-time decision, Goedert will play an every-down role Sunday and will be the focal point of the offense, even if Ertz guts it out.

With a JV roster of wideouts, the Eagles are still throwing the ball 44.3 times a game (2nd-most) over the last three weeks and we expect Goedert to be the biggest beneficiary of the air yards. We are taking the Over on Goedert’s total on any number below 65 yards.

 

 

SHOOTING FOR A CENTURY

The Kansas City Chiefs could finish in second, third or fourth in the AFC depending on the outcome of their Week 17 match versus the Los Angeles Chargers and the winner of New England and Miami. TE Travis Kelce leads the team in receptions and receiving yards and sits at 94 catches on the year — six short of the century mark and back-to-back seasons with 100 catches.

The Chargers saw plenty of the K.C. TE in Week 11 as Kelce saw 10 targets which he turned into seven grabs and 92 yards and a score. Kelce’s reception total sits at 6.5 which could leave us one short if he is shooting for 100 and no more, but with K.C. needing a big game from its star pass-catcher, we are taking the Over 6.5 as Kelce has seven grabs or more in six of his last seven games.

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PLAYOFF PATH: OAKLAND RAIDERS

The Raiders have one the lowest probability to make the playoffs, but they still have a chance. Oakland needs four games to go its way which ESPN gives a 12.8 percent chance of happening.

First and foremost, the Raiders need to take care of business and beat the Broncos in Denver as three-point dogs. The Broncos have played well at home of late, winning four of their last five — beating the Lions, Chargers, Browns and Titans. Oakland has struggled in the thin air, winning just once in seven trips to Colorado.

If the Silver and Black can squeak out a victory, they will still need the Ravens, Colts and Texans to pull out a win. After all that nonsense, they STILL need one of the Bears, Patriots, Lions or Chiefs to win. Not confusing at all.

Looking at the first four games, if we put those Money Lines together (OAK, BAL, IND and HOU) we get +2000 and assume one of those final four teams can pull off a victory, especially the Pats. So, if you have faith in Gruden’s troops, put your money down and you can turn $100 into $2000.