COWBOYS VS. THE MAFIA
The Buffalo Bills have faced one team with a winning record this year. Playing the likes of Miami, the New Yorks and Washington hasn’t done them any favors in the power rankings. This Thanksgiving, Josh Allen and boys in blue will head down to Jerry’s World and take on the 6-5 Cowboys.
Dallas loves the play action and sits ninth in the league in PA plays at 27 percent and is getting nine yards per play-action call. The Bills will be up to the challenge as they have the league’s third-best play-action defense. Dallas has played three Top-10 play-action defenses and lost each of those games (Saints, Jets, and Patriots) while not hitting their team total in all three.
Only one team has scored more than 26 points against the Bills this year and Buffalo ranks third in total yards allowed on the road at just over 300. We are taking the Cowboys’ team total Under 26.5, and with the Over currently at -135 that total might slip higher towards game day.
Do you want to be the talk of Thanksgiving dinner? It all starts with you telling everyone that Mitch Trubisky is a great quarterback all day leading up to the Bears and Lions kickoff at 12:30 pm ET. We all know that Mitchell is a below-average signal caller, but with his career stats versus the Lions, you could look like a genius by tooting the Trubisky horn.
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“Mediocre Mitch” has six touchdowns and zero interceptions over his last two games versus the Lions and has averaged 255 yards passing in his four starts against Detroit. That should help his confidence, but also the fact that Matt Patricia’s defense is allowing more passing yards at home than any other team in the league also helps the cause.
Hitting the Over 228.5 Trubisky passing yards prop will get you credibility for the remainder of the football day – and maybe right into Christmas. If you’re really greedy (and deep down, we all are), the Over 1.5 TDs has value at +120.
We were tricked about the Atlanta Falcons Defense over Weeks 10 and 11. Even though it allowed just 12 points in two games and zero TDs in 10 quarters, Atlanta still gave up 612 yards passing and 63 completions which would put it in dead-last in both of those categories. Jameis Winston and the Bucs proved those two games were anomalies as Tampa Bay passed for 313 yards and put up 35 points.
Drew Brees has averaged 296 passing yards and 31 completions against three Bottom-10 DVOA pass defenses over the last four weeks. We are getting on the Over on Brees’ 26.5 completions - a number he has topped in every game he has finished this year.
ZEKE AND DESTROY
The Bills are 24th in rushing TDs allowed per game this year as they sit 26th in DVOA rush defense. Ezekiel Elliot has just one rushing touchdown in his last four games, so Zeke is due to cross the plane especially with an offensive game plan that should feature the run.
Last year on Thanksgiving, Elliott rushed for 121 yards and scored twice - one rushing and one receiving. He missed the 2017 Thanksgiving Day game but scored four TDs in 2016 - two rushing and two receiving.
We’re putting our money on the Thanksgiving Day money-maker and taking the Over 0.5 Elliott rushing TDs at -104.
TURKEY TIME 6-POINT TEASER
We hit our prime-time six-point teaser last week for +160 and keep things rolling with our holiday version of the three-team, six-point teaser for +160, as well.
Chicago (+3) will face either Jeff Driskel and his injured hamstring or … David Blough. The Bears already have a victory over the Lions in November while the Lions haven’t won by more than four points all year.
Buffalo (+12.5) has had an easy schedule to date with their two most difficult matchups both losses. But QB Josh Allen has traveled well and has his team 4-1 on the road this year with the only blemish a 16-13 loss in Cleveland. It’s tough to get up two TDs versus the Bills’ Top-5 pass defense.
New Orleans (-0.5) has over 1,000 yards of offense over its last three games and will face the Falcons without their No.1 TE and possibly their No.1 WR in Julio Jones. The Falcons were slapped back to reality after getting spanked 35-22 by the Bucs and proving that this is a Bottom-5 defense.