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Odds and Ends

PL Prop Bets - Picking the Provider

by Sean Sullivan
Updated On: May 3, 2021, 1:22 pm ET

Burnley enter the final month of the Premier League season nine points clear of the relegation zone. The Clarets host West Ham United on Monday on the heels of an impressive victory over Wolverhampton, with Chris Wood netting a hat trick in a 4-0 success. The timely win snapped a three-match losing skid and moved them up to 14th in the table. While the Clarets’ season has seen them struggle to score, the club is in good shape for their encounter with the top-four hopefuls. Based on how Burnley will attack West Ham, this article outlines why bettors should look to capitalize on the assist market wagers PointsBet Sportsbook has to offer for Monday’s clash at Turf Moor.   

 

Picking the Providers

Unsurprisingly, players that are involved in the most goals are the best bet. The most important indicators for success when it comes to creating goals are key passes and chance created. A key pass is a statistic that counts passes that lead to a shot attempt that does not achieve a goal. They are the base of calculating chances created, which tracks the total key passes and assists a player provides. The higher volume of opportunities a player makes, the higher the likelihood they will be involved on a goal on a match-to-match basis.  

When evaluating assist potential, it is essential to look at a few other statistics. The way a player records a key pass is critical in differentiating the quality of chances a player creates, with allegiance to other tangible statistics and the eye test. For example, the kind of players you want to target make things happen in multiple match situations. A player who takes corners or set pieces will have a higher chance of assisting than a player that only creates during open play. If a player does both, then there is value to be found in the assist market.  

Prop Tip – Dwight McNeil to Assist A Goal (+320)

McNeil checks all the boxes. The wide midfielder is a primary chance creator in open play, he takes corners, and his numbers have been great in recent weeks. Burnley generate most of their chances via the wings and crosses, which makes McNeil essential in the execution of their direct style of attacking football. A consistent and predictable approach to scoring goals makes it easy to predict which players will be involved when they do score.  

The last seven matches have seen Chris Wood (6) and Matej Vydra (3) account for 75 percent of Burnley’s goals. Looking at chance creation numbers, we see McNeil at the top of the charts in all the key areas. The left midfielder leads the club in key passes (17), crosses (59), and accurate crosses (10). In terms of consistency, McNeil has supplied two or more key passes as well as five or more crosses in six of his last seven appearances. He has averaged 2.4 key passes, 8.4 crosses, and 1.4 accurate crosses per match during that span. These splits are noteworthy when considering comparing his current production levels with per match leaders so far this season. The league leader in key passes averages 3.4 per game. The leader in crosses averaged 7.7 per match, and the leader in accurate crosses average 2.0. 

McNeil is also coming off one of his best performances this season. The 21-year-old assisted twice to Wood in the win over Wolves. His first assist was a low cross across the box after stepping up to intercept a pass, while the second came from a well-placed corner just before halftime. His current form makes him a great bet to assist against a West Ham side that have conceded multiple goals in four of their last six games. Only three clubs have conceded more goals (12) than West Ham during that span.  

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Sean Sullivan

Sean Sullivan is a Soccer Betting Analyst for NBC Sports Edge.  He is also a diehard Manchester United supporter.  You can find Sean on Twitter @Sean_Sullivan_1.