"Whatever his point prop is, I'm hammering the Over."
Everybody has that buddy. You know, the one who thinks blind betting Overs at Coors Field is a great idea because of the altitude. The one that thinks it's a stone cold lock when the Packers are laying only 3.5 points on the road. The one that doesn't realize that oddsmakers clearly build public perception into their numbers.
This specific buddy is blind betting Jamal Murray's Over in Game 7 tonight – and he can't be convinced it's not a sure thing.
So far in this amazing Nuggets-Jazz series, Donovan Mitchell has poured in 57, 51 and 44 points while Murray has had outbursts of 36, 50, 42 and 50 points. They are both high volume scorers that get plenty of opportunities to put the ball in the basket.
Sportsbook staffs around the country have paid very close attention to the series. They've watched and rewatched the performances by Mitchell and Murray over the last couple weeks. And they've adjusted the numbers accordingly.
PointsBet is dealing O/U 33.5 points for Mitchell and O/U 32.5 for Murray tonight. For context purposes, their props in Game 6 were 30.5 and 29.5 respectively. Three points might not sound like a lot, but that's a pretty decent adjustment.
Interestingly enough, the game total has dropped from 220 down to 217.5.
Somebody somewhere is betting a decent amount of money Under the total. Betting an Under in a Game 7 is a subconscious belief in defense, physicality, double teams and maybe even fatigue. Perhaps those variables could effect Mitchell and Murray too. I guess we'll find out soon enough.
So while those point props may still seem low to you, please understand that the proper adjustments have been made in calculating these numbers. Bookmakers have definitely shaded accordingly.
Don't think because you watched Jamal Murray score 50 last game that O33.5 is a sure thing.