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Odds and Ends

Prop Preview: Expect overtime in Phoenix

by Will Gray
Updated On: February 10, 2021, 3:49 pm ET

The bevy of prop bets available this week isn't just limited to the game being played Sunday night in Tampa.

Yes, the Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers will draw plenty of attention (and action) this weekend. But there's also some golf being played out west, with some of the biggest names showing up to TPC Scottsdale for the Waste Management Phoenix Open which, during non-pandemic times, is one of the most electric stops on Tour.

This week marks the debut of NBC Sports Edge BetCast, a fully betting-centric, second-screen viewing experience. Streaming all four days of the tournament on Peacock, it will give viewers a new perspective on some of the bets and numbers surrounding the event, with live odds powered by PointsBet Sportsbook.

With that in mind, the oddsmakers at PointsBet have beefed up some of their prop bet offerings for this week's event, which will include Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy and Justin Thomas among others. Here's a look at some of the notable lines, as well as a few plays to consider:

Tournament ends in a playoff (+350)

Ride the streak. This event has a recent history of going long on Super Bowl Sunday, with playoffs in four of the last five years. The outlier in that run, Rickie Fowler's 2019 triumph, came perilously close to extra holes. Maybe it's something about the risk-reward dynamic of the closing four-hole stretch on the Stadium Course, but leaders tend to bunch up as the action winds down. Don't be surprised if it happens again this week and the golf action bleeds well into the first quarter of football.

Field (-118) over the Big 6

This line gives you 126 out of the 132 players in the field at less juice than you might need to take the Chiefs -3. The only issue is that you're essentially fading the top six players on the odds list: Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas, Xander Schauffele, Webb Simpson and Daniel Berger. That's a lot of firepower to consider, but you're still left with plenty of weapons including former champs like Fowler, Brooks Koepka and Hideki Matsuyama. This course has also produced some unexpected winners like Kevin Stadler in 2014, and Gary Woodland's win three years ago came before he was a major-winning household name. Safety in numbers here, and a good price to grab all but the upper echelon of the field list.

Winning Score Under 267.5 (-105)

There should be plenty of birdies this week at TPC Scottsdale, with an initially chilly weather forecast replaced by more pleasant temperatures and calm winds. The Stadium Course plays to a par of 71, which means a winning score of 267 would equate to 17 under. That's been the minimum score to win each of the last four years and once again feels like a viable target. Recent minor renovations have added subtlety to the look and feel of the venue, but they've done little to damper the scoring ability of some of the best players in the world. Don't expect anyone to reach the stratosphere of Phil Mickelson's 28-under total in 2013, but it's a safe bet that players will need to reach at least 17 under to have a chance to lift the trophy this week.

And of course, what would a WMPO prop discussion be without a mention of the 16th hole? The iconic par 3 won't have the coliseum seats surrounding it this year, but it'll still be a focal point of the action down the stretch. While there have been nine all-time aces on the hole in tournament play, only two have come since 2003.

Here's a look at the odds of a hole-in-one on No. 16 this week:

No ace: -455

Ace any day: +300

Round 1 ace: +700

Round 2 ace: +700

Round 3 ace: +1000

Round 4 ace: +800

PointsBet is our Official Sports Betting Partner, and we may receive compensation if you place a bet on PointsBet for the first time after clicking our links.

 

 

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Will Gray

Will Gray joined Golf Channel in 2007 and currently serves as a staff writer for GolfChannel.com. Gray has been covering fantasy golf since 2012 and is a regular contributor to the Golf Central blog and covers several PGA Tour events each year. He's also a regular contributor to several digital properties on GolfChannel.com, including Stat Man, On the Clock, Fantasy Central, Grill Room and the Monday Scramble podcast.