Welcome to the Sunday Prop Shop.
Every weekend, we'll dive inside the thousands of NFL props from our friends over at PointsBet Sportsbook. All prop bets will be tracked for accountability at the bottom of every write-up. Let's go.
Russell Wilson UNDER 28.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Wilson’s season-long average is slightly over this line but his rushing production has come in Seattle losses. This year, Wilson has averaged 28.9 rushing yards in wins. That number jumps to 48.5 yards in losing efforts. The spread has been important for Wilson’s rushing prop as well. In games that ended within seven points, Wilson has averaged 45.3 rushing yards. In wins or losses of eight or more points, that number plummets to 15.5 yards. Vegas has the Seahawks as 13.5-point favorites this week so we can safely expect Wilson to shred them through the air without taking many chances on the ground.
Giovani Bernard OVER 16.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Bernard has five starts with Joe Mixon sidelined this year. He has averaged 4.3 targets for 3.3 receptions and 24.2 receiving yards in those starts. Bernard has topped his current receiving line in four of six starts this year and should have no problem doing so again this week. The Bengals are 3.5-point underdogs to the Cowboys this week and his quarterback, Brandon Allen, has the 38th-highest average depth of target among passers with at least 30 throws.
Andy Dalton UNDER 248.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Dalton has topped this propr in two of five starts and even removing the game he exited early in, he’s only averaging 242.3 passing yards per game. He isn’t reaching that number through efficiency either. Both of his games over 250 yards required at least 48 pass attempts. Both outings were also losing efforts. With the Cowboys favored versus an offense that has put up 24 points in their previous two games combined, Dalton won’t have the brute force of passing volume to push him past this line.
Dalvin Cook OVER 74.5 Rushing Yards (-143)
The juice is steep on Cook’s prop but he has been obliterating this line all season. Removing the game Cook left with an injury, he has eclipsed 74.5 rushing yards in seven of ten games. Two of his three busts came in the Vikings’ opening pair of games. The best part about betting Cook is how high his floor has been. The Vikings run on 40 percent of their plays when trailing which is the sixth-highest rate in the league. Cook has four games with under four yards per attempt. Minnesota still jammed him into the backs of his lineman 30 times in two of those games.
Dallas Goedert OVER 38.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Goedert returned in Week 8 but looked limited and didn’t do much. Since then, he’s become the No. 1 receiver in Philadelphia. He has a 21 percent target share and a 23 percent air yards share in the Eagles’ previous four games. That role has translated to 62.8 yards per game and now he gets an upgrade at quarterback, going from Carson Wentz to Jalen Hurts. This prop is far too low for any ream’s top receiver, even if that player happens to be a tight end.
Last Week: 4-1, +2.5 units
Season: 7-2, +4.1 units