Welcome to the Sunday (and Saturday) Prop Shop.
Every weekend, we'll dive inside the thousands of NFL props from our friends over at PointsBet Sportsbook. All prop bets will be tracked for accountability at the bottom of every write-up. Let's go.
Russell Wilson UNDER 26.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Wilson’s rushing prop headlined last week’s Prop Shop and it will continue to do so as long as he’s playing in games that the Seahawks are expected to win with little resistance. He has averaged 48.5 rushing yards in Seattle losses this year and 25.4 yards in wins. The line of Wilson’s matchup with Washington gives Seattle a six-point edge. This season, when Seattle has won by six or more points, Wilson has posted just 18.9 rushing yards per game.
Dalvin Cook to get 125+ Rushing Yards (+220)
Betting gaudy rushing totals is generally a losing bet because of the relatively minimal likelihood of any player reaching some absurd total versus the odds that any book will give out. Cook may be the exception to that rule. He has played in 12 games this year and has topped 125 yards in a third of his contests. The Vikings won in three of Cook’s four games reaching this prop line. With a 3.5-point spread in their favor this week, Cook’s odds of hitting 125 yards are better than these odds indicate.
Carlos Hyde OVER 26.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Hyde has played in seven games with Chris Carson active this year. He is posting nine carries for 30.6 rushing yards in those games. Two of his three biggest days by carries have come in decisive Seattle wins. He racked up 12 carries while the Seahawks decimated the Jets last week and logged another 15 totes in Week 12 when his team handled the Eagles. As six-point favorites this week, Hyde should have the chance to cover this line in mop-up duty.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire OVER 15.5 Receiving Yards (-125)
After ceding work to Le’Veon Bell in the middle part of the season, CEH has reemerged as the primary runner and pass-catcher out of the backfield for Kansas City. In his previous three games (removing Week 13 when he was active but did not play a snap while sick), he has commanded 74.1 percent of the Chief’s running back rush attempts. He also leads all of their backs in routes run and targets. The Dolphins managed to keep things close last week and it gave us a glimpse into how CEH might be used in a tight contest with the Saints this week. He logged six targets and brought down five of them for 59 yards.
Melvin Gordon UNDER 13.5 Receiving Yards (-122)
Gordon has topped this line three times in 12 games this year. He has as many games with zero targets. His weekly average has been 10.1 receiving yards. Drew Lock’s style simply doesn’t allow for his running backs to excel, even when they are forced to throw frequently. His aDOT of 9.5 yards is second-highest among all receivers. Lock has four games with at least 40 pass attempts and Gordon only beat this receiving line in one of those matches.
Last Week: 4-1, +2.3 units
Season: 11-3, +6.4 units