Welcome to the Sunday (and Saturday) Prop Shop.
Every weekend, we'll dive inside the thousands of NFL props from our friends over at PointsBet Sportsbook. All prop bets will be tracked for accountability at the bottom of every write-up. Let's go.
Kyler Murray UNDER 258.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Murray is an incredible player and on most weeks betting his unders feels like a fool’s errand. However, the Carindal’s opponent may not be able to push Murray to greatness in Week 16. Murray has played in nine games decided by more than a field goal this year. He has topped this prop in under half of them and has clocked in at two yards per game less than his prop. His attempts per game also drops in less competitive games and he still has to contend with San Francisco’s top-ten coverage unit, per Pro Football Focus.
D.J. Chark to Get 100+ Receiving Yards (+400)
Chark is fairly unlikely to reach 100 receiving yards but +400 odds are too long to pass on. The Jaguars get Chicago this week and although that may seem like a difficult matchup, the Bears have gotten bit on big passing plays this year. They are allowing the tenth-highest rate of pass plays to go for 20 or more yards. Chark is the perfect player to take advantage of that this week. Since he returned to the field in Week 9, Chark is 11th among receivers in air yards on the back of a 14.1 average depth of target. His chances of breaking off multiple long plays are slim but not as minuscule as the odds make them out to be.
Melvin Gordon to Get 75+ Rushing Yards (+150)
The Broncos aren’t always in a position to run the football, but when they are, it’s one of their favorite pastimes. When within a touchdown of their opponents, Denver runs on 47 percent of their plays. That is the sixth-highest rate in the league. This week, the Broncos are only 3.5-point dogs to the Chargers. In Denver games that have been decided by less than ten points, Gordon has averaged 72.8 rushing yards. That puts him right in line with this prop but you are getting far better than even money on it.
Rob Gronkowski OVER 33.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Antonio Browns joined the Bucs in Week 9. Dating back to that game, Gronk’s volume metrics have actually gone up. Before Brown, he was averaging five targets per game. Post-Brown, he’s averaging 5.3 targets per game. Gronk is also fifth among tight ends in average depth of target this year, further increasing the value of each look he sees. His opponent, the Lions, is allowing the seventh-most passing yards this season.
Jeff Wilson OVER 64.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
With Raheem Mostert out, Wilson is in line for a massive role versus the Cardinals this week. Wilson logged 16 carries in the game that Mostert left last week while Tevin Coleman saw all of three carries. Jerick McKinnon and Coleman combined for 24 of a possible 84 snaps. If last week taught us anything, it’s that Kyle Shanahan plans on using Wilson as his primary runner.
Last Week: 2-3, +.1 units
Season: 13-6, +6.5 units