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Odds and Ends

Sunday Prop Shop: Week 17

by Kyle Dvorchak
Updated On: February 10, 2021, 2:15 pm ET

Welcome to the Sunday Prop Shop. 

Every weekend, we'll dive inside the thousands of NFL props from our friends over at PointsBet Sportsbook. All prop bets will be tracked for accountability at the bottom of every write-up. Let's go.

Andy Dalton UNDER 252.5 Passing Yards (-115)

Dalton has started eight games for the Cowboys this year. Even excluding the game he left with an injury (which is generous because that is always a hidden benefit when betting unders), Dalton has topped this prop less than half of his seven healthy games. His average in games he has finished is 248.6 passing yards. The Giants are only allowing 240.5 passing yards per game this season and the game has a 45-point total. That number has dropped two points since opening earlier in the week. This looks like the ideal game to be hammering unders in and that starts with Dalton.

Kendrick Bourne to Get 75+ Receiving Yards (+200)

The 49ers are going to be without Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel for this game which makes Bourne their top wide receiver. He'll split that role with Richie James but before last week, Bourne was clearly the receiver to target when the 49ers were down to the reserves. Bourne was on a streak of six games with at least four targets. He averaged 6.2 targets per game over that span. James had two games with over six targets in that same timeframe. The Seahawks Defense is allowing 287.6 passing yards per game this year (32nd) and the 49ers are underdogs of nearly a touchdown. Bourne has a ceiling game of over 75 yards easily within reach.

Henry Ruggs UNDER 29.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Ruggs is running even this prop so far this year but Week 17 may be one to fade him at these odds. On the season, the Raiders are top-10 in run rate at 45 percent. That number jumps by 12 percent when they are playing from ahead and then hits a league-high 76 percent when Las Vegas holds a touchdown lead. They are 2.5-favorites this week with juice on their side of the line. We can already project them to be run-heavy because of that and the upside (from an under bettor's perspective) is that they cover and Ruggs draws dead to even catch multiple passes. The downside is that they lose and are forced to pass at an abnormally high rate. If that does occur, Ruggs is still only fourth on his team in target share at 11.2 percent. He isn't a lock to hit the over even if Derek Carr drops back 40 times in this game.

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Davante Adams to Get 125+ Receiving Yards (+170)

With a win, the Packers can secure a first-round bye in the playoffs. On the other side, the Bears need a victory to make the playoffs at all. This game features more motivation than any other in Week 17 and that's reflected in the 51-point total. Adams has played in eight games that featured a final total over 50 points. He's averaged 123 receiving yards and topped 125 four times in those games. His numbers drop to 68.6 yards and zero 125+ outings when the total stays at or below 50 points. Adams in shootouts is simply an over printing machine.

Sterling Shepard UNDER 65.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

This is just a bad line for Shepard. He has only topped it twice all year and there's nothing appealing about his matchup this week to think he has a better chance of topping it than usual. Even after a rough start to the year, the Dallas defense has now become one of the more stout units in the league. They are 11th in passing yards allowed at 228.7 per game and that would be even lower if they didn't give up more than 260 yards three games in a row to start the year. Shepard's 22.1 percent target share is middling and he doesn't have a game with more than 90 air yards on the books this season. Neither volume nor game environment point to anything other than the under for him.

Last Week: 4-1, +3.1 units

Season: 17-7, +9.6 units

Kyle Dvorchak

Kyle Dvorchak is a writer for Rotoworld and half of the other sites on the internet. He loves most Big 12 quarterbacks, misses the XFL and can be found on @kyletweetshere.