Welcome to the Sunday Prop Shop.
Every Saturday, we'll dive inside the thousands of NFL props from our friends over at PointsBet Sportsbook. Please scale back your bet size on props, because a lot of these picks will be longer shots to win. I like to bet a little to win a lot with props. If you bet 100 dollars a game, go with 10 or 20 bucks a prop.
$20 T.Y. Hilton scores touchdown and Colts win (+225)
This is turning into one of the biggest sharp vs. square games of the entire weekend. Sportsbooks are reporting heavy ticket counts on the Vikings, but the betting line is moving the other way. Nobody wants to bet Indianapolis after they lost to Jacksonville, yet the market moved from Colts -2.5 to -3. Hmmm. Hilton should be a very good option on Sunday against a Vikings Defense that allowed 40+ points to Green Bay. He's got to cross the goal line and the Colts have to win, but I'll take my chances.
$20 Zach Ertz scores touchdown and Eagles win (+375)
Same bet, different cast of characters. The Eagles will benefit immensely from the season debuts of Lane Johnson and Miles Sanders. Johnson will anchor the protection on Carson Wentz' right side and Sanders is clearly their best running back. The ability to run the rock will only set up play action shots down the middle of the field. Ertz is a big target and Wentz loves to look his way inside the red zone. He caught a touchdown last week and I expect history to repeat itself this week.
$10 Chicago Bears -13.5 (+210)
It could be a very long afternoon for the Giants and quarterback Daniel Jones. All signs point to Chicago having Khalil Mack, Robert Quinn and Akiem Hicks all suit up Sunday at Soldier Field. That's a menacing trio when it comes to blowing up plays behind the line of scrimmage. That should mean very bad news for a New York offense that rushed for 29 yards against Pittsburgh. The Bears will jump ahead early in this game and likely force a turnover or two when New York has to abandon the run and drop back to throw 35 times. I could easily see 31-13 Bears.
$10 DK Metcalf over 50.5 receiving yards (-115)
I expect Metcalf to have plenty of targets in this game for a couple reasons. Bill Belichick's defense always tries to take away the other team's best weapon. Seattle's best receiving weapon is Tyler Lockett. Lockett will draw enough attention to give the 6'4" Metcalf plenty of solo opportunities on the outside. He's got too much size and strength for Russell Wilson not to take a couple shots down the field. Two or three catches could get Metcalf over this number.
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