Devin Booker O/U 26.5 Points vs. Spurs
Devin Booker scored 23 points in his previous game, failing to score in the fourth quarter versus the Kings on only two shot attempts. Booker's line has crept down slowly. 25.5 and 26.5 will be his norm moving forward, unless he has a huge game versus San Antonio, which is a strong possibility.
The Spurs allowed the Blazers' C.J. McCollum to score 29 and Norman Powell 22 last night. The Raptors' OG Anunoby scored 22, the Mavericks' Luka Doncic did 29 and the Nuggets' Monte Morris dropped 21 points on the Spurs over the last five games. That is not including the numerous forwards/bigs to score 20-plus, just guards.
The Spurs rank 14th in points allowed per game to shooting guards (22.98), but recent play tells you otherwise. NBC's model projects Booker to score 24.5 points tonight, but he has blown by that in his last three meetings with the Spurs.
Booker has yet to meet San Antonio this season, but in the previous two seasons and three games, Booker scored 35, 37 and 38 points against the Spurs. He is projected to be the fourth-highest scoring player of the Saturday slate.
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Booker is projected to play 32 minutes and when he plays 30-39 minutes, he averages 26.2 PPG on the season. In April, when Booker has played 30 or more minutes, he averaged 30.6 PPG, with three games of 32, 35 and 36 points. In the other three games, Booker managed to score 23, 24 and 24 points.
Booker will either hover around the 25-point mark or surpass that with a 30-point night. His scoring has increased since the All-Star Weekend, raising two points from 24.9 to 26.9 per game. He is averaging 26.6 over eight games in April and 27.8 per game in the previous 10 outings.
As for shot attempts, Booker has averaged 20.1 on the month but failed to attempt 20 shots in the last three games. The Spurs allowed McCollum to shoot 26 times and Powell 17 last night, so Booker will have plenty of opportunities.
The Spurs rank 22nd in opponent field goal percentage (48.0%) over the last five games and 23rd in three-point percentage (38.5%). In the last five, San Antonio's opponents to hit free-throws at 81% on 18-of-22 per game. Booker has not missed a free-throw in four games (13/13) and 49-of-53 (92.4%) this month.
If Booker makes more than four free-throws, we should be in good shape for the Over. In the last 10 games when Booker made five or more freebies, he averaged 34.5 PPG, going 8-2 to the Over 26.5 Points.
The key will be making five or more free-throws with at least 18 field goal attempts. Booker also attempted at least eight three-pointers in three of his last four games, a promising sign. With the Spurs playing a back-to-back, back Booker to score 27 or more points.
Pick: Devin Booker Over 26.5 Points (1u)
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