San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs – Open: -2.5; Move: -1.5
Kansas City hasn’t lost a game on the field since Nov. 10 and has been almost perfect at the betting window, too, going 8-0 SU and 7-0-1 ATS since then. In the AFC Championship Game against Tennessee, the Chiefs (14-4 SU, 12-5-1 ATS) erased a 17-7 second-quarter deficit with 28 straight points in a 35-24 victory as 7.5-point home favorites.
San Francisco is riding a four-game win streak into Sunday’s season finale in Miami. The 49ers (15-3 SU, 11-6-1 ATS) won both their playoff games by 17 points, including a 37-20 victory over Green Bay in the NFC Championship Game, cashing as 8-point home faves.
“The spread opened Chiefs -2.5, but almost immediately moved to -1.5 and has stayed there since,” Dent told Covers, though he noted it’s been all K.C. money since the initial move down. “It looks like we’ll be cheering for the 49ers here. The Chiefs are attracting far more interest at -1.5.”
The Niners are attracting more moneyline play, so Ideally, Paddy Power might welcome a 1-point Chiefs victory. The total opened at 52.5 and quickly surged to 53.5, then on to 54.5, mirroring action at U.S. sportsbooks.
“This will see a lot more interest in the coming days and just before kickoff,” Dent said. “But already, the Under would be a good result for Paddy Power.”
At Ladbrokes, the Chiefs opened -1.5 and spent a brief time at -1, then peaked at -2 before settling at -1.5.
“We’ve received more volume on the Chiefs spread, but the bigger bets have been on the 49ers,” Apati said, while noting San Francisco is the preferred moneyline play, too. “Money continues to arrive for the 49ers. That has been the case since they secured the top seed in the NFC. With all things taken into consideration, the Chiefs winning and covering the spread would be the best result.”
The total at Ladbrokes opened at 54.5, dipped to 53.5 and ticked up to 54, but Apati said there’s more money on the Over and the larger bets are on the Over, as well.
Of course, there’s also an array of proposition bets available. At Ladbrokes, as with pretty much everywhere, the quarterback props are getting attention.
“With Patrick Mahomes running a lot more than before, and the Chiefs’ defense struggling to stop rushing touchdowns, we’ve noticed a lot of interest in Patrick Mahomes rushing Over his yards line (32.5), as well as Jimmy Garoppolo to score the first touchdown and a touchdown at any time,” Apati said. “Garoppolo’s two touchdowns in his career garnered opening odds of 80/1 to score the first touchdown, and 60/1 is now available for backers.”
Dent said the most popular props at Paddy Power are on the Over/Under for Demi Lovato’s rendition of the national anthem and the color of Gatorade poured on the winning coach. But bettors are on the actual game props, as well.
“Super Bowl MVP is attracting interest,” Dent said, noting a sizable decision looms if a certain 49ers defensive stalwart has a strong performance. “We’re hoping Nick Bosa has a quiet game!”