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Andy Dalton
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Odds and Ends

Week 5 Player Props

by John Daigle
Updated On: October 6, 2019, 2:20 am ET

If fretting wagering on NFL spreads and totals (historically the sharpest lines available at any book), props can be an intriguing and outright fun way to have an invested incentive in a player’s performance each and every Sunday. This continued series will be a weekly feature outlining my favorite player props for the upcoming week, including the five detailed below. Any additional bets will be added and updated over the weekend. All props and odds have been sourced accordingly and tracked for accountability below.

 

Andy Dalton OVER 1.5 TD Passes (-131) — Pinnacle

Dalton’s historically averaged 6.1 YPA in the spotlight of primetime football and 6.6 YPA against divisional foes, so it’s not too shocking he wet the bed against the Steelers this past week. Now back at home against an ‘uncommon’ Cardinals Defense that’s been middle of the road in both sacks (11) and quarterback hits (20), the Red Rifle should have no issues firing on all cylinders as Matthew Stafford (385 yards-3 TDs), Lamar Jackson (272-2), Kyle Allen (261-4) and Russell Wilson (240-1) did with ease against this unit before him. The vig on this one at Pinnacle is slightly lower than that at DraftKings Sportsbook (-134).

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Auden Tate OVER 4.5 Receptions (+130) — Pinnacle

Tate’s quietly ranked as fantasy’s WR36 the past two weeks since overthrowing UDFA Damion Willis for the job across from Tyler Boyd. Without John Ross (shoulder), we should only expect the former seventh-rounder’s 16 targets in that span to increase, putting Tate in prime position to clear this one as early as the first half. Arizona’s stayed deadpanned as opposing quarterbacks have posted the third-most fantasy points per game against them, and Tate should be one of many beneficiaries for the Bengals and Dalton if that continues.

 

Jimmy Graham OVER 34.5 Receiving Yards (-110) — DraftKings Sportsbook

Graham’s only averaged 22.8 receiving yards on the surface, but recall he was listed on the team’s injury report and nearly ruled out for the two eggs he laid in Weeks 2 and 3. In the two contests he’s been healthy for (including last week), Graham’s averaged 4.5/45.5/1 on the second-highest target share (17%) behind Davante Adams’ 28% mark. The key here is that Adams (toe) is unlikely to suit up, potentially allowing Graham to move to the forefront of Green Bay’s receiving pecking order. Note that the 32-year-old led the Packers in both red zone (8) and end zone (4) targets in his two healthy outings, too.

 

Marquise Brown OVER 63.5 Receiving Yards (-112) — DraftKings Sportsbook

Brown ranked eighth-overall in air yards share (41%) among all skill players before sinking with the rest of the Ravens’ offense in lopsided game script in Week 4. Prior to that miserable performance, he had also averaged 94 receiving yards on nine targets per game due in part to his team-high 25% target share. There’s no reason to think Pittsburgh’s below-par pressure rate (25.6%) and eight-sack performance against the Bengals carries over into this matchup against the Ravens’ trenches, which sturdily rank second-overall in Football Outsiders’ Adjusted Line Yards (5.08) metric. Bet on a bounce-back to the norm for Brown.

 

Deshaun Watson OVER 1.5 TD Passes (-160) — Pinnacle

A projected shootout if there ever were one, even Houston’s Swiss cheese o-line shouldn’t hold back their offense from running roughshod against Isaiah Oliver (8.1 yards per pass in coverage) and Desmond Trufant (9.6 Yd/Pass) on the perimeter. Will Fuller in particular is primed for regression ASAP, ranking No. 12 in accrued air yards (399) among all skill players but only 117th in fantasy points scored. The multiple passing touchdowns Atlanta’s been shredded for by Jacoby Brissett (3) and Marcus Mariota (3) the past two games pit Watson as a likely candidate to reach three scores rather than struggling to hit on two.

 

Last Week: 3-3, +4.1 Units

Total: 13-13, +14.1 Units