With so much money being exchanged, these weekly lines are really, really tough to beat. I can confidently say at least 95% of football fans would win between 45% to 55% of these game bets (sides or over/unders) over time. It’s just the reality of such an efficient market. With that said, I think there are some ways to barely increase our chances of churning a marginal profit. As you guys know, Rotoworld is the king of grinding news. That’s something the public doesn’t do as well as a Rotoworld blurber, so it’s going to be one of the common things I utilize in this column, in addition to advanced stats and film. Notes: Lines are taken from FanDuel Sportsbook. ... My 2019 Best Bets are 24-15-1 (61.5%).
Vikings -2.5 (-110) vs. Chiefs
This tweet is a reminder that we are betting on road teams this season, so let’s start with Minnesota. The Vikings are among the best rushing teams in the NFL, and the Chiefs are the third-worst run defense according to DVOA. Dalvin Cook should go off, and Kirk Cousins is playing at near MVP levels whenever they need to pass the ball. On the other side of the ball, we have career backup Matt Moore playing an aggressive and tough to figure out defense. The Vikings have the personnel to help defend Travis Kelce, and Moore isn’t a great bet to hit Tyreek Hill over the top since he’s been shy throwing deep in his career.
Packers -3.5 (-110) vs. Chargers
To continue the trend of road teams, I’m rolling with the Packers who will have a major fan advantage in the Chargers’ soccer stadium this weekend. The Packers’ offense has been lights out through the air (top 10th percentile pass DVOA) and on the ground (top 13th percentile run DVOA), while the Chargers are in the bottom 25th percentile defensively in both categories due to injuries. The Chargers Offense is also stumbling with Melvin Gordon’s inefficiencies and offensive line injuries tanking the offense. The coaching advantage for Green Bay is more than enough to swing the 3.5 point spread.
Bears vs. Eagles -4.5 (-115)
The Eagles’ roster is just flat out better than the Bears, especially with DeSean Jackson heading back into the starting lineup. Carson Wentz is playing at a very similar level as previous seasons, but he’s not racking up the yards as he once was, probably because there hasn’t been a deep threat on the roster. I’m expecting the Eagles Offense to start firing on all cylinders. On the other side of the ball, we have Mitchell Trubisky and an offense that’s beginning to lean on the run game. That should be enough to bet against the Bears.
Titans vs. Panthers UNDER 42.5 Points (-110)
A battle featuring two below-average quarterbacks on run-heavy offenses playing against above-average defenses. Yup. Give me the under. The Panthers’ edge rush will give Ryan Tannehill fits, so it will be on Derrick Henry to carry the offense. Tick-tock. Tick-tock. On the other side of the ball, we have Kyle Allen who was just exposed last week in his first game playing an actual defense. The Titans aren’t elite, but they’re rock-solid defensively, especially with first-round rookie Jeffery Simmons going off the last two weeks.
Cowboys -7 (-105) vs. Giants - My MNF Bet
Dak Prescott has 380 yards and four touchdowns in his last two games against the Giants, who are now in the bottom 12th percentile in pass defense DVOA and 20+ yard pass play prevention. The Cowboys’ offense is much better now than it was last season as well with Prescott playing at a near MVP level. On the other side of the ball, we have Mr. Daniel Jones who has seven interceptions and eight fumbles in his brief stint as a starter. Whenever we have Amari Cooper and Tyron Smith healthy, it’s time to bet on Dallas.
If you’re looking for more team breakdowns, read my Week 9 Fantasy Football Forecast column. It’s nearly 10,000 words and has a bunch of graphs that could be utilized in the betting markets. My buddy John Daigle also has a weekly Player Props column if you’re trying to get more action down.