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Odds and Ends

Yankees vs Orioles: Jameson Taillon K Prop

by Vaughn Dalzell
Updated On: April 7, 2021, 2:30 pm ET

Jameson Taillon Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts vs. Orioles

Jameson Taillon will pitch his first game with the Yankees after spending the last four seasons in Pittsburgh with the Pirates. The anticipation of Taillon with the Yankees will be at an all-time high for him after enduring his second Tommy John Surgery, this time in 2019 (first in 2014). Taillon also battled testicular cancer in 2017, so he is a flat-out Warrior.

Taillon missed the entire 2020 season, so this debut will be fun to watch. The Orioles hitters are very inexperienced when it comes to facing Taillon. Only 15 plate appearances among four players, including pitcher Matt Harvey is concerning for Baltimore. 

orioles vs taillon

The model loves Taillon, predicting the 6-foot-5 230-pound pitcher to register 6.5 Ks, well over his 4.5 on PointsBet.

Taillon Projection

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PointsBet is offering 4.5 Ks to where other books are at 5.5 Ks for Taillon. I would play one unit at Over 4.5. If you have Over 5.5, I would play that at 0.5 unit for + 130 or better money. 

In 2019, Taillon started seven games and finished with four or five strikeouts in six of those contests. He recorded five or more Ks in 22-of-32 games (68.75%) in 2018 and 13-of-25 (52%) in 2017. 

The Orioles have the third-most strikeouts on the season (60) and the seventh-fewest walks (13). The Orioles are averaging 12 strikeouts per game, thanks to Gerrit Cole's 13 yesterday. Before that game, the Orioles averaged 11.5, so still a good look for the Over 4.5 from Taillon. On the early season, the Orioles rank 25th in Slugging Percentage (.333) and 25th in OPS (.637). 

Taillon made it five or more innings in six of his last seven starts in 2019. In his last 10 games, when he pitches at least five innings, Taillon has averaged 5.3 Ks, 5.6 Ks in his last 20 contests and 6.2 Ks in the last 25. Taillon has pitched at least five innings in 29 of his last 31 games.

At home in 2018, Taillon averaged 6.5 Ks per game compared to 4.8 on the road. Taillon posted an impressive yet short Spring Training a month ago. He recorded a 1.08 ERA over 8 1/3 innings while striking out 14 batters. Taillon had a short leash, but if he makes it past five innings versus Baltimore, I like the Over here. 

I see Taillon getting five-plus Ks in his first game back and at least five innings pitched.

My Pick: Over 4.5 Ks (1u) or Over 5.5 Ks (0.5u)


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Vaughn Dalzell

Vaughn Dalzell is a former Division I SID, two-time IUP Alumnus and also a contributor on numberFire, FantasyPros and Bet The Prop. You can follow him on Twitter for more insight @VmoneySports.