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Player Analysis

By The Numbers Week 18

by Rob Allen
Updated On: October 4, 2018, 4:09 pm ET

So it’s Christmas time, a time for mince pies, dinner with family and undoubtedly the most truncated series of matches that are on offer.  Last week I gave you the option of how to deal with a “set and forget” plan which many readers have emailed me positively having missed out on whole weeks in previous seasons. That’s not to say that this is the perfect option, it can be beaten if you can guarantee that you’ll be available to choose your team for each week (an option that includes being sober on Boxing Day).

Let’s start this week with Goalkeepers.

Here’s the chart:

As you’ll see, there are three premium-ish options; Szczesny, Courtois, Fabianski and Forster (just about). The real bargain however seems to be Howard, he’s just £4.75m and faces off against Stoke who’ve managed just 1 goal per game when away from home. It’s not the cleverest idea but if you’re behind in your private leagues it could be the differential you need.

Forecasts

Here’s the chart…

As you’ll see, Manchester United look like absolute knockouts at home to Newcastle and let’s be honest, Spurs putting four past them followed by losing the Tyneside derby has to make them in for a real world of pain. 

Other than Manchester City, who seem very strong away against West Brom, most of the home teams look to be real favourites. Personally I’ll be placing a crazy six fold accumulator on Utd, Sunderland, Arsenal, Chelsea, Everton and City.

Poisson

Finally we come to the Poisson distribution and that holds some string indicators:

Strong defensive picks from Arsenal, Swansea and Sunderland and solid offensive picks for Chelsea, City and United.  It looks as though Chelsea vs West Ham and West Brom vs City have goals written all over them whilst Aston Villa look fated not to score a goal…..

That’s it for this week, I’ll look forward to bringing you the next installment

Rob Allen
Rob Allen is a UK-based fantasy football and football betting writer. Devout Spurs fan, author of “Yahoo Fantasy Football – Dominating the Competition” and founder of the I’m a winner website, you can find him on Twitter @funtasyfootball.