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Playing the Tips

Expert Picks: BMW Championship

by Josh Culp
Updated On: October 4, 2018, 4:04 pm ET

Welcome to Playing the Tips! 

Each week this will be the one-stop resource to soak in all the picks from our fantasy staffers at Rotoworld.com. 

Page 1 is going to look at GolfChannel.com's fantasy game and also the PGATOUR.com's Fantasy Game. 

Page 2
 will have a look at One-and-Done options as well as Daily Fantasy Sports picks (FanDuel and DraftKings). 

Page 3 looks at European Tour's Race to Dubai.


Editor’s Note: With over 15,000 reviews, DRAFT is the highest rated fantasy sports app. For a limited time, DRAFT is giving Rotoworld readers a FREE entry into a real money draft and a Money-Back Guarantee up to $100! Here's the link.

 

Golf Channel (PlayFantasyGolf.com)

Josh Culp 

“@FutureOfFantasy”


Last Week Points:
357.5
Last Week Rank: 4860rd

Brooks Koepka ($33,300)
Patrick Cantlay ($22,200)
Tiger Woods ($20,000)
Adam Scott ($11,000)
Brandt Snedeker ($7,500)
Keegan Bradley ($5,600)

Analysis: Loading up on elite ball-strikers here with Snedeker as the designated putter. 


Mo Yoshimoto

 “@BearsGolf3423”

 

Last Week Points: 398.5

Last Week Rank: 3948

 

Justin Thomas ($33,300)

Tony Finau ($24,400)

Rafa Cabrera Bello ($17,300)

Cameron Smith ($10,900)

Byeong Hun An ($8,700)

Beau Hossler ($5,000)

Analysis: Sticking with the hot hand on Finau, RCB, and Smith. Looking for JT to jump back into the winner's circle. Hossler keeps firing out of the gate this season. 

PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf presented by SERVPRO

Josh Culp

“@FutureOfFantasy”

 

Last Week Rank: 14,912

Season Rank: 1,771st *Did not play most of Segment 1*

 

Starters:

Tiger Woods
Justin Thomas

Jason Day
Patrick Cantlay

 

Bench:

Jordan Spieth
Adam Scott

 

Mo Yoshimoto

“@BearsGolf3423”

  

Last Week Rank: 11848

Season Rank: 1534


Starters:

Brooks Koepka

Justin Thomas

Hideki Matsuyama

Justin Rose

 

Bench:

Bryson DeChambeau

Tiger Woods

 

~


One-and-Done

Each week I will think out loud about my process in determining my One-and-Done selection. If you are new to the One-and-Done format, it is like an NFL survivor league. You pick one golfer per week, but you can't use them again all year. 

Looking to finish strong these last two weeks, let's break down the BMW Championship. 

There isn't enough recent course history to lean on at Aronimink so let's start by looking at total strokes gained over the last 8 weeks (RECENT FORM):


Tony Finau
Dustin Johnson
Tommy Fleetwood
Brooks Koepka
Webb Simpson
Patrick Cantlay
Justin Thomas
Bryson DeChambeau
Tyrrell Hatton
Tiger Woods
Rafa Cabrera Bello
Hideki Matsuyama
Billy Horschel
Justin Rose
Adam Scott

 

After form, we can look at baseline performance over the last few years. More recent results are weighted more heavily: 

Dustin Johnson
Jason Day
Rory Mcilroy
Jordan Spieth
Justin Rose
Henrik Stenson
Jon Rahm
Tommy Fleetwood
Justin Thomas
Paul Casey
Hideki Matsuyama
Patrick Cantlay
Brooks Koepka
Adam Scott
Phil Mickelson

Looking for overlap we see a few names pop up: Dustin Johnson, Justin Rose, Tommy Fleetwood, Justin Thomas, Hideki Matsuyama, Patrick Cantlay, Brooks Koepka, and Adam Scott

If you have any one of those 8 golfers, then fire away! 

The more likely scenario is that you've exhausted most of those options. The next thing I do is head to my spreadsheet to see who has generated the highest ratio of top 5s under similar course and/or tournament conditions (since 2014). 

Ignoring the golfers that already saw the overlap list, the next in line are: Rory McIlroy, Rickie Fowler, Jordan Spieth, Jason Day, Jon Rahm, Henrik Stenson, Paul Casey, Tyrrell Hatton, Tiger Woods, Xander Schauffele, Tony Finau, Patrick Reed, Phil Mickelson, Rafa Cabrera Bello, and Bubba Watson

Hopefully, you can find someone to pluck out of that long list of 15 golfers. Personally, I'm going to take a shot on Bubba Watson who just gained 4.5 strokes off-the-tee and 3 strokes on approach at TPC Boston. 


Daily Fantasy Sports [DFS]

I will be giving out selections for one team for each DFS site, per week. 
 

These lineups will be entered into a large-entry Guaranteed Prize Pool. That means we need to take a risk or two, in order to separate ourselves from the field. 

The idea is to provide you a list of names to consider. I would not recommend copying these teams, golfer for golfer. Duplicate teams are no fun and don't help anyone. 


FanDuel Picks:

Xander Schauffele ($9,500): Has wins at The Old White TPC and East Lake. Also got in the mix at Shinnecock. These lengthy, par 70s have been very good to him. 

Jon Rahm ($10,500): He's a top-5 machine but recent finishes of MC and T43 will lower his ownership. He's really struggling with the putter currently but that's easily fixable for someone who is usually solid in that department. 
 
Tiger Woods ($11,500): Ranks 7th in 2018 performance per round, using my adjusted strokes gained method. That is despite the fact that he continues to have one part of his game leaking each week. 
 
Abraham Ancer ($7,400): Back at TPC Potomac he said this, "I love bent greens and these ones are really good and they roll real true, so just sticking to the process." He added another strong finish on bentgrass last week. Let's keep firing away. 
 
C.T. Pan ($8,300): Has posted the All Four Rounds Under 70 Bonus in two of his last three starts. En Fuego!  
 
Brooks Koepka ($12,100): Playing for a chance to become World No. 1, I love BK as an anchor this week. 

 


DraftKings Picks:
 

Tiger Woods ($9,200): We are getting a $500 price discount compared to last week. Woods' ownership has been funny this year. It seems when Vegas loves him, his ownership is sky high regardless of price but the ownership has dipped a bit on other weeks. Should mean reasonable ownership levels this week. 
 
Brooks Koepka ($10,500): The big hitter is going through a putting slump but still racking up top 15s. If he corrects his putting then another win could definitely be in the cards. 
 
Louis Oosthuizen (7,500): He tends to show in in huge-purse events. This week qualifies as it's a Playoffs event. At 69th in the FEC standings, Oosthy should go for broke this week in hopes of cracking the Top 30 by week's end. 
 
Xander Schauffele ($7,700): The opposite of Tiger, X-Man is getting a $500 boost compared to last week, even though his form has been mediocre. Should be really low ownership. He's making his final statement for Jim Furyk this week. 
 
Abraham Ancer ($6,800): Was right in the mix last week but stumbled down the stretch. A good learning experience and I expect him to get back into contention many times over the next 12 months. 
 
Kyle Stanley ($7,500): Really solid in this part of the country. His steady tee-to-green game gives him a relatively high floor. 

 
~

2018 Fantasy Race to Dubai



Dave Tindall is our main man in Europe. In addition to his weekly previews of European Tour events on Mondays, he’ll share his selections and analysis for the Fantasy Race to Dubai at EuropeanTour.com.
 
Format: Pick 6 golfers. Players accumulate points based on Race to Dubai (R2D) points earned. Captain’s points are doubled. Unlimited team changes can be made each week.
 
Team Tindall (Team name: YESSIR!)


Last week: Fitzpatrick did a decent job as skipper but Wallace win did me no favors. Small drop.

Pos: 7,710

Ryan Fox (captain): Slightly left-field pick but I need someone with low ownership to make a move. The Kiwi was T9 on his debut here last year and has Swiss form of 9-2-3. Excellent at the Irish and Scottish Opens and T27 in the PGA on latest start.


Matthew Fitzpatrick
: Defending champion is an established Crans course horse (1-7-2 last three years) and made the top ten in Denmark last week.

Lee Westwood: Lost a play-off in Denmark on Sunday but a really positive week. Previous champion here and has put this event back on his schedule in recent years as it's one he can win again.

Charl Schwartzel: First appearance since 2010 but has two top sixes on his last two Crans visits. From high-up Joburg and won at Augusta so makes sense he can thrive on an undulating course at altitude.

Lucas Bjerregaard: Going for his third straight top ten, a feat he managed earlier this season. Looks a good venue to keep the car racing as he was T9 last year.

Danny Willett: Dropping hints that he's ready to win again and he has a 'W' and a second at this venue.


 
Matt Cooper is part of our European team. He contributes to player news, and he’ll share his selections and analysis for the Fantasy Race to Dubai at EuropeanTour.com. He was the winner of the Ladies European Tour’s Fantasy League in 2011.
 
Team Cooper (Team name: NormanStanleyFletcher)
 

Last week: The slow creep back into the top 1000 continues.

Position: 1,049th

Matthew Fitzpatrick (captain): Top ten last week and I suspect he will also play this week slightly irked that he hasn't made the Ryder Cup team. Mature enough to know he didn't do sufficient, but competitor enough to be hurt and show his true colors on a course that suits (if Bjorn does pick him, he'll be on a high - even at this altitude).

Thomas Pieters: Like Fitzpatrick I'm going for the hurting-or-flying angle.

Lee Westwood: Had a great time last week and no reason to think it can't stay that way for another seven days at a course he loves (winner in 1999).

Danny Willett: Played some nice golf in the last few months and this could be another top ten week, at a course he clearly enjoys (seven top 30s including a win in 2015).

Charl Schwartzel: Class act who returns to the course for the first time since 2010 and his last two visits reaped top sixes.

Ryan Fox: T9 on debut last year and arrives following a break before which he was flying (three Rolex Series top tens, two solid major performances).

 

Josh Culp

Josh Culp joined NBC Sports Edge in 2014. The DFS enthusiast from Iowa State can be found on Twitter @futureoffantasy.