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Playing the Tips

Expert Picks: Ft. Worth Invite

by Josh Culp
Updated On: October 4, 2018, 4:04 pm ET

Welcome to Playing the Tips! 

Each week this will be the one-stop resource to soak in all the picks from our fantasy staffers at Rotoworld.com. 

Page 1 is going to look at GolfChannel.com's fantasy game and also the PGATOUR.com's Fantasy Game. 

Page 2
 will have a look at One-and-Done options as well as Daily Fantasy Sports picks (FanDuel and DraftKings). 

Page 3 looks at European Tour's Race to Dubai.


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Golf Channel (PlayFantasyGolf.com)

Josh Culp 

“@FutureOfFantasy”


Last Week Points:
359
Last Week Rank: 5,948

Jordan Spieth ($33,300)
Zach Johnson ($23,400)
Steve Stricker ($11,700)
Danny Lee ($11,100)
Scott Piercy ($10,500)
Sam Saunders ($9,600)

Analysis: Hoping that TPC Deere Run proves to be a correlated layout, given my trio at the top are all horses in Silvis, Illinois. The theme of the team is golfers that thrive with a wedge in hand. That should come in handy on a course that is shorter than most. Wedges and short iron play will be on my radar. 


Mo Yoshimoto

 “@BearsGolf3423”

 

Last Week Points: 398.0

Last Week Rank: 3420

 

Chesson Hadley ($22,300)

Emiliano Grillo ($21,000)

Kevin Na ($19,500)

Russell Knox ($12,500)

J.J. Spaun ($12,300)

Scott Piercy ($10,500)

Analysis: A team loaded with ball-strikers that don't rely on distance. Should be a good recipe at Colonial. 

PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf presented by SERVPRO

Josh Culp

“@FutureOfFantasy”

 

Last Week Rank: 15,417

Season Rank: 3,156 *Did not play most of Segment 1*

 

Starters:

Jordan Spieth
Webb Simpson
Zach Johnson
Matt Kuchar

 

Bench:

Steve Stricker
Brandt Snedeker

 

Mo Yoshimoto

“@BearsGolf3423”

 

 

Last Week Rank: 15387

Season Rank: 984


Starters:

Emiliano Grillo

Chesson Hadley

Webb Simpson

Jon Rahm

 

Bench:

Jordan Spieth

Jason Dufner

~


One-and-Done

Each week I will think out loud about my process in determining my One-and-Done selection. If you are new to the One-and-Done format, it is like an NFL survivor league. You pick one golfer per week, but you can't use them again all year. 

Stayed cold last week with Hossler finding a middle-of-the-road finish. Time to bounce back this week at Colonial. 

Let's lead things off with some course horses, looking at weighted course history with an emphasis on the last 10 years: 


Jordan Spieth
(5-for-5 with all doubling as top 15s including a WIN)
Kevin Kisner (MC-T5-T10-WIN)
Matt Kuchar (9-for-10 with five top 20s)
Zach Johnson (12-for-12 including TWO WINS)
Danny Lee (5-for-5 with two top 10s)
Webb Simpson (2-for-4 with back-to-back top 5s)
Harris English (4-for-5 with a pair of top 5s)
Brian Harman (4-for-5 with a pair of top 10s)
Sean O'Hair (6-for-9 with three top 20s including a RUNNER-UP)
Steve Stricker (9-for-11 including three top 15s and a WIN)
Charley Hoffman (9-for-9 with three top 20s)
Ryan Palmer (11-for-14 with five top 15s)
Chris Kirk (8-for-8 with five top 20s including a WIN)
Brandt Snedeker (7-for-7 including three top 20s)
Chris Stroud (5-for-7 with four top 15s)

After history, we can look at baseline performance over the last few years. More recent results are weighted more heavily: 

Jordan Spieth
Jon Rahm
Justin Rose
Rickie Fowler
Patrick Cantlay
Matt Kuchar
Adam Scott
Brooks Koepka
Webb Simpson
Steve Stricker
Zach Johnson
Louis Oosthuizen
Brandt Snedeker
Kevin Na
Jim Furyk

Looking for overlap we see a few names pop up: Jordan Spieth, Matt Kuchar, Webb Simpson, Steve Stricker, Zach Johnson, and Brandt Snedeker. This list looks awfully similar to what my list will look like at the JOHN DEERE CLASSIC. 

If I'm grading them based on my expected win probability I'd go with Spieth, Webb, Johnson, Kuchar, Snedeker, and then Stricker. 

I've already used Spieth and Simpson so I will go with my next in line, Zach Johnson. The Iowa native is a two-time champ here and he's finished inside the top 30 in 10 of his 12 trips to Colonial. Sounds good to me! 

Daily Fantasy Sports [DFS]

I will be giving out selections for one team for each DFS site, per week. 
 

These lineups will be entered into a large-entry Guaranteed Prize Pool. That means we need to take a risk or two, in order to separate ourselves from the field. 

The idea is to provide you a list of names to consider. I would not recommend copying these teams, golfer for golfer. Duplicate teams are no fun and don't help anyone. 


FanDuel Picks:

Jordan Spieth ($12,400): A track record at Colonial that is hard to beat. 
 
Webb Simpson (11,600): Back-to-back top 5s at Colonial and he's arriving off a monster win at THE PLAYERS.
 
Abraham Ancer (8,500): Needing to save some salary, I like this straight-shooting Texan to make a splash.
 
Andrew Landry (8,000): Another Texan that has proven he's comfy on the big stage. 
 
Sean O'Hair (8,500): Imagine that, another Texan! Seems to be a theme here.
 
Zach Johnson (10,800): Not a Texan but plenty of success in the Lone Star State. That includes a pair of wins here at Colonial. 

 


DraftKings Picks:
 

Jordan Spieth (11,700): T14 or better in all five starts here. That includes T2-WIN-T2 over his last three visits. Hard to argue with that success rate. 

Adam Hadwin (7,600): Finished T5 in his debut here but he's settled for T22 and T53 in two return visits. Given his stellar iron play at the moment, I would expect another top 25. 

Chris Kirk (7,600): A past champ at Colonial with sneaky-good form. 

Sean O'Hair (7,100): A runner-up here last year. Just one of many great recent finishes in his home state. 

Beau Hossler (7,700): This Texas Longhorn has proven his go-low capabilities. If we get one of those signature rounds then he'll easily outperforn this salary. 

Scott Piercy (7,700): Ranks 2nd on TOUR in strokes gained approach and finished T7 here last year. 

 

 
~

2018 Fantasy Race to Dubai



Dave Tindall is our main man in Europe. In addition to his weekly previews of European Tour events on Mondays, he’ll share his selections and analysis for the Fantasy Race to Dubai at EuropeanTour.com.
 
Format: Pick 6 golfers. Players accumulate points based on Race to Dubai (R2D) points earned. Captain’s points are doubled. Unlimited team changes can be made each week.
 
Team Tindall (Team name: YESSIR!)


Last week: Had the winner which is always a plus. 

Position: 8,886th

 

Tommy Fleetwood: Back on the European Tour for the first time since going Win-T6 in the Desert Swing. T6 here three years ago. Supreme ball-striker and he's going to carry the captain's armband for me.

Branden Grace: Jets in from Texas on the back of a closing 62 for T3 at the Byron Nelson. 5-for-5 slate at Wentworth with three top 11s.

Matthew Fitzpatrick: His type of player can strike it big at Wentworth. T12 last year with closing 66. T14 at The Heritage.

Byeong Hun An: Loves this place. Six-shot winner on Wentworth debut in 2015 and top 25 last year. Plenty of solid form in 2018.

Alexander Bjork: I'm leaving some big names out this week in a bid to play catch-up but the Swede is deserving of a place after his recent win in China and T14 on debut in 2017.

Alex Noren: The DC gets the final vote. Casey and Molinari have had recent injuries while Rory has missed three of his last four cuts here. Noren shot bookend 66s at Sawgrass on last start.



 
Matt Cooper is part of our European team. He contributes to player news, and he’ll share his selections and analysis for the Fantasy Race to Dubai at EuropeanTour.com. He was the winner of the Ladies European Tour’s Fantasy League in 2011.
 
Team Cooper (Team name: NormanStanleyFletcher)
 

Last week: Otaegui on the team but not a great show from the rest. All peanuts compared to the next two weeks, however.


Position
: 835th


Rory McIlroy
(captain): If he brings his A game he can, of course, win. Just two top 20s in eight starts suggests his C game struggles here, but, as often repeated, the game dynamic demands he is picked.


Alex Noren
: Superb on the PGA Tour and can't see how that experience won't help this week. Will he defend? Not sure. A perfectionist who likes doing his homework, off-course obligations might hamper him.


Francesco Molinari
: His course consistency is outlandish (five top tens in six starts) and he loves the week.


Branden Grace
: Plenty of course form and arrives fresh from a sparkling final round 62 in Texas.


Tommy Fleetwood
: Wouldn't back him at the bookies, but happy to as a gamer. His game is well-suited and he's won in Abu Dhabi and France with poor course records.


Byeong Hun An
: Solid on the PGA this year, but long-term Euro record is strong, past course winner, T6th last time out on the ET in Dubai.

 

Josh Culp

Josh Culp joined NBC Sports Edge in 2014. The DFS enthusiast from Iowa State can be found on Twitter @futureoffantasy.