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Playing the Tips

Expert Picks: NORTHERN TRUST

by Josh Culp
Updated On: October 4, 2018, 4:04 pm ET

Welcome to Playing the Tips! 

Each week this will be the one-stop resource to soak in all the picks from our fantasy staffers at Rotoworld.com. 

Page 1 is going to look at GolfChannel.com's fantasy game and also the PGATOUR.com's Fantasy Game. 

Page 2
 will have a look at One-and-Done options as well as Daily Fantasy Sports picks (FanDuel and DraftKings). 

Page 3 looks at European Tour's Race to Dubai.


Editor’s Note: With over 15,000 reviews, DRAFT is the highest rated fantasy sports app. For a limited time, DRAFT is giving Rotoworld readers a FREE entry into a real money draft and a Money-Back Guarantee up to $100! Here's the link.

 

Golf Channel (PlayFantasyGolf.com)

Josh Culp 

“@FutureOfFantasy”


Last Week Points:
475.5
Last Week Rank: 803rd

Jason Day ($33,200)
Jon Rahm ($33,300)
Keegan Bradley ($12,700)
C.T. Pan ($6,000)
Ryan Palmer ($5,900)
Joel Dahmen ($5,000)

Analysis: Day and Rahm were the two I wanted at the top which left me scrambling for scraps at the back end. Keegan brings comfort in the area. Palmer brings comfort on the course, and Pan/Dahmen bring current form. 


Mo Yoshimoto

 “@BearsGolf3423”

 

Last Week Points: 484.5

Last Week Rank: 1450

 

Jason Day ($33,200)

Patrick Cantlay ($28,100)

Gary Woodland ($19,700)

Jason Kokrak ($7,000)

Ryan Palmer ($5,900)

Martin Laird ($5,500)

Analysis: Also using Day at the top and Palmer as a salary relief. Laird has past success here and Cantlay/Woodland/Kokrak all have flashes of form recently. 

PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf presented by SERVPRO

*FORMAT NOTICE: The Perfect Lineup Challenge kicks off this week which will run for the entirety of the FedExCup Playoffs. The goal is to draft the top 4 point earners each AND every week. Doing so will win you a cool million. On top of that difficult task, you've probably already used most of the big guns during this segment. This sounds extremely difficult but not entirely impossible. There are also some prizes for the gamers that finish with the most points during that stretch. 

Josh Culp

“@FutureOfFantasy”

 

Last Week Rank: 1,587

Season Rank: 1,709th *Did not play most of Segment 1*

 

Starters:

Justin Thomas
Justin Rose
Jason Day
Francesco Molinari

 

Bench:

Zach Johnson
Adam Scott

 

Mo Yoshimoto

“@BearsGolf3423”

 

 

Last Week Rank: 13685

Season Rank: 1601

 

Starters:

Jason Day

Justin Thomas

Jon Rahm

Patrick Cantlay

 

Bench:

Tiger Woods

Brooks Koepka

 

~


One-and-Done

Each week I will think out loud about my process in determining my One-and-Done selection. If you are new to the One-and-Done format, it is like an NFL survivor league. You pick one golfer per week, but you can't use them again all year. 

Secured a top 10 with Ryan Moore last week which is great at this time of the year when are options are running thin. I've now rattled off five staight top 15s. Let's keep it rollin...

Starting with tournament history this week, let's see who has played well here over the last 10 years: 


Jason Day (10-for-10 with a WIN and RUNNER UP)
Dustin Johnson (7-for-9 with TWO WINS)
Bubba Watson (8-for-12 with three top 10s)
Justin Rose (11-for-12 with three top 10s)
Jordan Spieth (4-for-5 with a T10 and RUNNER-UP)
Matt Kuchar (11-for-14 with four top 10s)
Webb Simpson (7-for-9 with three top 10s)
Paul Casey (6-for-6 with two top 10s)
Justin Thomas (T16-T10-T6)
Kevin Chappell (6-for-7 with three top 25s)
Patrick Reed (4-for-5 with a T9 and WIN)
Charley Hoffman (10-for-12 with five top 30s)
Jhonattan Vegas (4-for-4 with a T3 last year)
Jason Kokrak (4-for-5 with two top 10s)
Louis Oosthuizen (T5-MC-T18-T10)

 

After history, we can look at baseline performance over the last few years. More recent results are weighted more heavily: 

Dustin Johnson
Jason Day
Jordan Spieth
Justin Rose
Jon Rahm
Paul Casey
Tommy Fleetwood
Justin Thomas
Hideki Matsuyama
Patrick Cantlay
Brooks Koepka
Adam Scott
Matt Kuchar
Phil Mickelson
Francesco Molinari

Looking for overlap we see a few names pop up: Dustin Johnson, Jason Day, Jordan Spieth, Justin Rose, Paul Casey, Justin Thomas, and Matt Kuchar

I think it's hard to go wrong if you have any of those picks still available. I don't. 

Instead I will look at my spreadsheets to find out who is most likely to pick up a top 5 this week, once we adjust for the course conditions. If we remove the golfers from that overlap list then the next best available are Jon Rahm, Patrick Cantlay, Brooks Koepka, Tommy Fleetwood, Tyrrell Hatton, Tiger Woods, Xander Schauffele, Patrick Reed, Adam Scott, and Hideki Matsuyama.

You should have at least one of these golfers still available. If not, I suppose you've been very efficient in your early-season picks. 

For me, I have Hatton, Schauffele, and Scott still available. With Ryder Cup motivation on the line, I really like Xander to have a nice FedExCup Playoffs run. I will go with the X-Man (Xander Schauffele) as he's a proven big-game hunter, early in his career. 


Daily Fantasy Sports [DFS]

I will be giving out selections for one team for each DFS site, per week. 
 

These lineups will be entered into a large-entry Guaranteed Prize Pool. That means we need to take a risk or two, in order to separate ourselves from the field. 

The idea is to provide you a list of names to consider. I would not recommend copying these teams, golfer for golfer. Duplicate teams are no fun and don't help anyone. 


FanDuel Picks:

Xander Schauffele ($10,000): We just saw him in the One-and-Done section above. He is very high on the top-5 probability list for me this week but he cost right at the average price per golfer mark.

Jon Rahm ($11,600): Went MC-T17 before his top 10 at the PGA Championship. The scary thing is that little blip was considered a cold streak by his standards. 
 
Zach Johnson ($9,900): He famously won at Augusta while laying up on all the par 5s. He should be right at home this week with a trio of par 5s that are way too long for most of the field to reach in two. 
 
Ryan Palmer ($7,700): Ridgewood has five par 4s that play over 470 yards. That will mean plenty of long irons. Palmer is a golfer who increases his performance relative to the field as you increase the distance of approach. I like that this week. 
 
Keegan Bradley ($9,200): We are playing in the Northeast on a course that puts a premium on driving the ball. That is what Keegan does best. He is long off the tee but also pelts a load of fairways. 
 
Hideki Matsuyama ($10,900): Was a late add to the Wyndham and then he went on to gain 7.4 strokes approaching-the-green. You could argue that he knew his game was close so he wanted to parlay it into more tournament golf. We could be on the verge of a Matsuyama hot streak. I want in on the ground floor. 

 


DraftKings Picks:
 

Jon Rahm ($9,700): He's a top-10 machine including six worldwide since the beginning of April. 
 
Kyle Stanley ($7,300): On paper he's an ideal fit for Ridgewood Country Club. He stripes fairways with the best of them but also places the ball wherever he wants on approach. Has four top 15s over his last 10 starts. 
 
Hideki Matsuyama ($8,800): Trending well as he might (finally) be rounding back into form after having an early-season injury setback. 
 
Xander Schauffele ($7,800): Proves his fantasy worth with elite upside. A lot of his top-heavy finishes have come in big events and the first leg of the FedExCup Playoffs is a big event. 
 
Ryan Palmer ($6,900): There is no water in play which means Palmer should be able to avoid the big numbers this week. He's very strong tee-to-green and he's gaining confidence recently with top 30s in three of his last four starts. 
 
Zach Johnson ($8,700): Dialing in on current form, ZJ has six staight top 20s to his name. 

 
~

2018 Fantasy Race to Dubai



Dave Tindall is our main man in Europe. In addition to his weekly previews of European Tour events on Mondays, he’ll share his selections and analysis for the Fantasy Race to Dubai at EuropeanTour.com.
 
Format: Pick 6 golfers. Players accumulate points based on Race to Dubai (R2D) points earned. Captain’s points are doubled. Unlimited team changes can be made each week.
 
Team Tindall (Team name: YESSIR!)


Last week: Went against the world by not having Olesen as skipper. The world was right. Small loss overall.

Pos: 7,924

Thomas Pieters (captain): Has a win and a second here and top six at PGA shows he's timing his Ryder Cup run to perfection.

Eddie Pepperell: Owns a pair of top fives on this course and another with Ryder Cup hopes after banking big points in Scottish Open and Open Championship.

Matt Wallace: A two-time winner this season and he also has Le Golf National on his mind. Top 20 at Bellerive was another significant step forward.

Andrea Pavan: Striking it beautifully with his irons and that's gained him T14 at the Scottish Open and T6 in Sweden last week.

Tom Lewis: Wants his card back and he's making a move. Lewis landed a top three in this event last year so this offers a good opportunity.

Dean Burmester: Monster hitter was T9 last time out and cracked the top 15 here last year so has some nice converging trends.


 
Matt Cooper is part of our European team. He contributes to player news, and he’ll share his selections and analysis for the Fantasy Race to Dubai at EuropeanTour.com. He was the winner of the Ladies European Tour’s Fantasy League in 2011.
 
Team Cooper (Team name: NormanStanleyFletcher)
 

Last week: A climb of 16 places thanks to Captain Olesen and Southgate's solid weekend.

Position: 1,118th

Thomas Pieters (captain): Finally found some form (T6 in both the Scottish Open and PGA Championship) plus he's back at a venue he's finished first and second at. I'm quite content to keep it that simple.

Matt Wallace: The hole-in-one and T19 in the PGA Championship represents a return to form and he's already a double winner this term in this class of field.

Haydn Porteous: The defending champion rediscovered his mojo last week in Sweden and I'll take that as a hint.

Dean Burmester: T9 in the Scottish Open and, earlier in the season, T12 at the BMW PGA Championship - good results in strong fields. This week is an opportunity to assert over a poorer group.

Eddie Pepperell: Twice a top five finisher on the course and plenty to like about his form - second in the Scottish Open, top five in the Open, two very good rounds in the PGA Championship.

Lee Westwood: A bit of a part-timer this season, but has shown the odd sign of having something and you sense he kind of knows it. More likely to win something like this than a Rolex Series grade event unless his putting stroke has an exceptional week.

 

Josh Culp

Josh Culp joined NBC Sports Edge in 2014. The DFS enthusiast from Iowa State can be found on Twitter @futureoffantasy.