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Playing the Tips

Expert Picks: THE PLAYERS

by Josh Culp
Updated On: October 4, 2018, 4:04 pm ET

Welcome to Playing the Tips! 

Each week this will be the one-stop resource to soak in all the picks from our fantasy staffers at Rotoworld.com. 

Page 1 is going to look at GolfChannel.com's fantasy game and also the PGATOUR.com's Fantasy Game. 

Page 2
 will have a look at One-and-Done options as well as Daily Fantasy Sports picks (FanDuel and DraftKings). 

Page 3 looks at European Tour's Race to Dubai.


Editor’s Note: With over 15,000 reviews, DRAFT is the highest rated fantasy sports app. For a limited time, DRAFT is giving Rotoworld readers a FREE entry into a real money draft and a Money-Back Guarantee up to $100! Here's the link.

 

Golf Channel (PlayFantasyGolf.com)

Josh Culp 

“@FutureOfFantasy”


Last Week Points:
295.5
Last Week Rank: 5,610th

Patrick Cantlay ($23,700)
Bryson DeChambeau ($21,000)
Luke List ($18,000)
Emiliano Grillo ($14,300)
Adam Scott ($13,100)
Tiger Woods ($9,600)

Analysis: Riding some recent form with DeChambeau, Like, and Grillo. Cantlay provides a steady hand while Scott brings course history. Tiger Woods continues to be underpriced in this format.


Mo Yoshimoto

 “@BearsGolf3423”

 

Last Week Points: 270.5

Last Week Rank: 7927

 

Dustin Johnson ($33,300)

Cameron Smith ($21,500)

Emiliano Grillo ($14,300)

Chesson Hadley ($14,000)

Billy Horschel ($11,700)

Ben Martin ($4,300)

Analysis: This team brings plenty of 2018 form to the table. Someone like Ben Martin welcomes a return to bermudagrass.

PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf presented by SERVPRO

Josh Culp

“@FutureOfFantasy”

 

Last Week Rank: 2,578

Season Rank: 3,278 *Did not play most of Segment 1*

 

Starters:

Henrik Stenson
Hideki Matsuyama
Rory McIlroy
Jason Day

 

Bench:

Sergio Garcia
Matt Kuchar

 

Mo Yoshimoto

“@BearsGolf3423”

 

Last Week Rank: 12978

Season Rank: 785


Starters:

Emiliano Grillo

Kyle Stanley

Cameron Smith

Dustin Johnson

 

Bench:

Patrick Reed

Jason Day

~


One-and-Done

Each week I will think out loud about my process in determining my One-and-Done selection. If you are new to the One-and-Done format, it is like an NFL survivor league. You pick one golfer per week, but you can't use them again all year. 

Had my picks narrowed down to eight golfers last week. I went with Hideki who finished the worst of all eight! That's the way things go sometimes but it's a long season. This week presents a good opportunity to bounce back as it's the third-highest prize pool in golf. 

Let's start with some weighted course history, focusing on the last 10 years: 


Adam Scott
(13-for-16 with eight top 20s including a WIN)
Sergio Garcia (16-for-18 with four podium finishes including a WIN)
Francesco Molinari (4-for-7 with four top 10s)
Ian Poulter (11-for-14 including a pair of RUNNER-UP finishes)
Hideki Matsuyama (4-for-4 with all of them doubling as top 25s)
Rory McIlroy (5-for-8 with top 12s in four of last five)
Si Woo Kim (T23-WIN)
Zach Johnson (12-for-13 with nine top 35s)
Louis Oosthuizen (4-for-7 including last year's RUNNER-UP)
Henrik Stenson (9-for-12 with eight top 25s including a WIN)
Matt Kuchar (9-for-12 with six top 20s including a WIN)
Jason Day (4-for-7 with three top 20s including a WIN)
Martin Kaymer (9-for-9 with three top 20s including a WIN)
Chris Kirk (5-for-7 with a trio of top 15s)
Kevin Chappell (5-for-7 including a RUNNER-UP finish)

After that, let's look at a (weighted) baseline performance metric since the start of 2014. 

 

Dustin Johnson
Jordan Spieth
Jason Day
Rory Mcilroy
Henrik Stenson
Jon Rahm
Justin Rose
Rickie Fowler
Paul Casey
Hideki Matsuyama
Sergio Garcia
Justin Thomas
Phil Mickelson
Patrick Cantlay
Matt Kuchar

Looking at both lists, we see some overlap with the following names: Jason Day, Rory McIlroy, Henrik Stenson, Hideki Matsuyama, Sergio Garcia, and Matt Kuchar

For a big event like this I also want form on my side. Taking that list above and combining it with the top 15 in recent form, I am left with Rory McIlroy, Jason Day, and Henrik Stenson

Given the less-than-driver nature of TPC Sawgrass I would prefer to take Stenson in this spot but I already used him so that's a no-go. 

That leaves me with Day or Rory who both struggled to figure out TPC Sawgrass, early in their career. More recently, let's breakdown their last five visits to THE PLAYERS: 

Jason Day: Gained strokes over the field in 12-of-16 rounds, gained 3 or more strokes in five of those rounds, has notable flop rounds of 6.4 and 8.8 strokes lost. 

Rory McIlroy: Gained strokes over the field in 15-of-20 rounds, gained 3 or more strokes in six of those rounds, his worst round in relation to the field over that stretch is only 1.7 strokes lost. 

Given that stellar recent consistency at TPC Sawgrass, I'm going to pull the trigger on Rory McIlroy. I think he's built a good game plan which allows him to contend here, despite the course not suiting him perfectly. Because of that, I think this pick will be a bit off the radar, as well. 

Daily Fantasy Sports [DFS]

I will be giving out selections for one team for each DFS site, per week. 
 

These lineups will be entered into a large-entry Guaranteed Prize Pool. That means we need to take a risk or two, in order to separate ourselves from the field. 

The idea is to provide you a list of names to consider. I would not recommend copying these teams, golfer for golfer. Duplicate teams are no fun and don't help anyone. 


FanDuel Picks:

Hideki Matsuyama ($10,500): Has top 25s in all four visits to TPC Sawgrass. 
 
Tiger Woods ($10,900): Finally getting to the price range where he doesn't need a top 5 to pay off his price tag. Heading back to Florida, I will take a few shots on the Big Cat.
 
Luke List ($9,400): You won't find many golfers with better form in 2018. He will also rank highly in any birdie or eagle stat this year and/or over the course of his career.
 
Tommy Fleetwood ($10,300): Tommy is one of the world's best ball-strikers and he's getting familiar with American course setups. TPC Sawgrass should cater to his elite iron play.
 
Alexander Levy ($8,600): I pointed out in this week's preview that Levy excels on course with lots of water. TPC Sawgrass fits that bill so I will take a chance on the Frenchman who is vying for a Ryder Cup spot. 
 
Daniel Berger ($9,900): Another golfer with comfort by the water. The native Floridian should have a good game plan in terms of avoiding the water and thus providing a steady path to a cut made.

 


DraftKings Picks:
 

Dustin Johnson ($10,300): His best finish at THE PLAYERS is a T12 (last year) and now he needs something better than that just to have a chance at keeping his World No. 1 ranking. I think his top 20 at Harbour Town was a great warmup for this style of golf, so I'm thinking he posts a new career best at TPC Sawgrass.

Henrik Stenson ($8,800): As I mentioned in the One-and-Done section, Stenson is one of just three golfers that fall inside the top 15 when it comes to course history, long-term performance, and recent form. 

Francesco Molinari ($8,100): Four top 10s at TPC Sawgrass. His fairways-and-greens style of play is perfect for TPC Sawgrass.

Ian Poulter ($7,800): The Orlando resident has a pair of runner-up finishes at TPC Sawgrass and has also found himself in contention frequently as of late.

Daniel Berger ($7,600) and Alexander Levy ($7,000): Mentioned above that I'm riding the narrative here that both golfers prefer water-heavy courses. They provide plenty of salary savings, as well. 

 

 
~

2018 Fantasy Race to Dubai



Dave Tindall is our main man in Europe. In addition to his weekly previews of European Tour events on Mondays, he’ll share his selections and analysis for the Fantasy Race to Dubai at EuropeanTour.com.
 
Format: Pick 6 golfers. Players accumulate points based on Race to Dubai (R2D) points earned. Captain’s points are doubled. Unlimited team changes can be made each week.
 
Team Tindall (Team name: YESSIR!)


Last week: Two weeks ago - Five made the cut in China; none contested the finish. Another drop.


Position
: 8,849th


Julien Guerrier
(captain): Opened with a 65 and finished top ten here 12 months ago and has been prominent in recent starts in Spain (T9) and China (T20). French youngster looks ready to throw in a big one.


Andy Sullivan
: Just once outside the top 25 in last five starts and T7 in Morocco last time was second top ten during that run. Can't leave him out in this modest field.

Thorbjorn Olesen: One appearance at this course and one win. That was at the 2012 Sicilian Open and the Dane can ride those good vibes to another big finish.


David Horsey
: Pale complexion suggests he wouldn't be confused for an Italian but the Englishman loves the place. T7 here last year makes his Italy form read: 6-7-5-14-16


Nino Bertasio
: Has a pair of missed cuts here but shot 64 in round two last year. The local man was T10 in the 2017 Italian Open and has made his last three cuts.


Eddie Pepperell
: Lost his way over the weekend here last year but twin 67s to start shows the Englishman likes the course. Winner in Qatar just three starts ago.



 
Matt Cooper is part of our European team. He contributes to player news, and he’ll share his selections and analysis for the Fantasy Race to Dubai at EuropeanTour.com. He was the winner of the Ladies European Tour’s Fantasy League in 2011.
 
Team Cooper (Team name: NormanStanleyFletcher)
 

Last week: Another winner claimed with Alex Bjork on the team, so 400 places gained and nearing the top 1,000 again.


Position
: 1,150th


Andy Sullivan
: I like the look of his form. Top tens in Dubai and Morocco, two stunning rounds in Spain, not missed a cut all year.


Sebastian Heisele
: These low grade, small purse events are the few I am willing to break from the pattern of looking at the head of the field. I like long hitters who've played Doha well this week. Heisele has that and a R1 63 last year too.


Eddie Pepperell
: If I'm focussing on Doha the most recent winner is an obvious selection. Can cope with blustery wind too.

Thorbjorn Olesen: Course winner and the perfect spot for him to kick-start his season.


Julien Guerrier
: I wouldn't back him at this week's odds, given his infrequent showing in the top five on the European Tour. But he makes a gaming play. In strong form and with T27-T8 course experience.


Joakim Lagergren
: Back in 2012 he opened with a 66 here. A better player now, desperate to start contending regularly, a play-off loser in Doha, T3 in Morocco.

Josh Culp

Josh Culp joined NBC Sports Edge in 2014. The DFS enthusiast from Iowa State can be found on Twitter @futureoffantasy.