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Playing the Tips

Expert Picks: Shriners

by Josh Culp
Updated On: October 4, 2018, 4:04 pm ET

Welcome to Playing the Tips! 

Each week this will be the one-stop resource to soak in all the picks from our fantasy staffers at Rotoworld.com. 

While Yahoo! and Golf Channel tune-up their fantasy games for the 2017 calendar year, we will have a condensed version of this feature. Here is how it will be laid out: 

Page 1 will go over One-and-Done as well as Daily Fantasy Golf picks. 
Page 2 will take a look across the pond with Fantasy Race to Dubai selections. 

Before you get into the picks, Dave Tindall has you covered with a Turkish Airlines Preview.

Mo Yoshimoto also does an in-depth breakdown of last week's action. Check out his WGC-HSBC and Sanderson Farms Recap.  
  

Now for the picks... 
 

One-and-Done

Each week I think aloud to provide you with my One-and-Done selection as well as a few alternatives. Fade or Follow? You decide!
 

Last week Paul Casey secured a T12 last week which was alright, but not great. The problem child was Patton Kizzire who lost 4.96 strokes approaching the green en route to a missed cut. That one stung but it's still early in the season.

Here is my thought process on week 4 of the 2016-17 campaign: 

First I want to look at course history. Looking at the last seven years of history at TPC Summerlin, here are the standouts: 
Jason Bohn (T2-T18-T2-T8-T49-T14)
Webb Simpson (T56-T4-1-T4-MC)
Kevin Streelman (T16-2-T22-T16-T14-T43)
Kevin Na (T2-WD-MC-T22-1-T45-T15)
Ryan Moore (T43-MC-T9-1-MC-T7-T24)
Chad Campbell (T8-MC-T36-T54-T23-T28-T2-T3)
Scott Piercy (T25-T7-MC-T6-T10-T28-T14)
Spencer Levin (T25-T10-T53-T5-T4-T54)
Martin Laird (T43-T18-MC-T40-T2-1-T47)

 

After looking at course history, let's have a glance at pure class. Here is the top 10 in the field in terms of adjusted strokes gained per round during the 2016 calendar year: Jon Rahm, Brooks Koepka, Ryan Moore, Billy Horschel, Chris Kirk, Francesco Molinari, Harris English, Lucas Glover, Webb Simpson, Jason Kokrak.

Combining the two lists, we get the following overlap: Webb Simpson and Ryan Moore. I like both of them this but Ryan Moore has some potential jetlag issues coming straight from Shanghai. I also like Webb Simpson but he hasn't found a top 25 over his last five starts so I'd rather hold off. He has a few "home courses" later on in the season at Quail Hollow and Sedgefield. 

Instead, I'm going with the top of the "pure class" list. That would be Jon Rahm. In limited starts on the PGA TOUR, he's gaining strokes at an elite level. This is an event where I'm willing to "waste" a pick on a golfer with no course history and save some other course horses for later in the season. 

Season Tracking

Wins: 0
Top 10s: 2
Top 25s: 3
Missed Cuts: 1 

 

Daily Fantasy Sports [DFS]

I will be giving out selections for one team each week. 
 

This week I will enter the following lineup into the $4 Fore contest. As the name suggests, it's just fore dollars to enter. 

This contest has a large number of entries, with guaranteed prize payouts, which means we can't play it safe if we want to see our name at the top! 

 
DraftKings Picks:
 

Jon Rahm ($9,800): Should be well-acclimated to desert golf, having played college ball at Arizona State. Expect him to be heavily owned, but we can diversify elsewhere. 
 
Webb Simpson ($7,800): This is just a bizarre price for a golfer who has won this event and also boasts a major championship on his resume. 
 

Tony Finau ($8,600): The man is a machine on bentgrass greens. Finds top 25s in over 50 percent of his starts when taking on bentgrass greens. 

Scott Piercy ($9,700): The Las Vegas native gets a home game this week. Home has been very comfy for Piercy who enters with top 30s in six of his seven trips here since TPC Summerlin became the lone host in 2008. 
 

Adam Hadwin ($6,500): Surprisingly consistent in 2016. Has beat the field average in 22 of his last 25 starts so even when he misses cuts, he's close. Of the golfers in the field with at least 10 starts in 2016, only Brooks Koepka has a higher percentage of starts beating the field average. That makes him quite the bargain down here below $7K. 

Michael Kim ($7,200): While Hadwin brings consistency, Kim brings recent form. He enters the week fresh off a T3 at the Safeway Open just a few weeks ago. He also does his best work against some of these thinner fields. Lastly, he'll have low ownership which will really help us rise up the leaderboard when/if he cracks the top 10. 

Other Picks to Consider
William McGirt ($8,700):  Opted to play the Sanderson Farms PRO-AM instead of the WGC-HSBC last week, thanks to an extremely weird PGA TOUR rule. Luckily they are letting him play in Las Vegas this week where he owns a 4-for-5 record with four top 35s. 

Brooks Koepka ($10,700): If you want birdies and eagles, Koepka is your man. If you need any more convincing, then consider his lone PGA TOUR win came at TPC Scottsdale, another desert-style golf course. 

 

~

 

2016 Fantasy Race to Dubai

 

Dave Tindall is our main man in Europe. In addition to his weekly previews of European Tour events on Mondays, he’ll share his selections and analysis for the Fantasy Race to Dubai at EuropeanTour.com.

 

Format: Pick 6 golfers. Players accumulate points based on Race to Dubai (R2D) points earned. Captain’s points are trebled and vice-captain’s doubled. Unlimited team changes can be made each week.

 

Team Tindall (Team name: YESSIR!)
 

Last week: Big swing for me on the 72nd hole at the WGC-HSBC with Ross Fisher making bogey to Stenson’s birdie. That’s the way it’s gone this season. A slight drop.
 

Position: 7,835
 

This week:
 

Bernd Wiesberger (captain): T8 at this venue in a 2010 Challenge Tour event adds to all his recent form. A good/decent week with the putter and he’ll find the win his recent play deserves.
 

Tyrrell Hatton (vice-captain): Has thrived in the big-money events this season. No. 5 on Race to Dubai and has decent form in Turkey (T19, T26).
 

Soren Kjeldsen: Three top 10s in last nine starts and can plot his way to another on a course that should suit his game.

Richard Bland: Super-consistent this season and having English players on board is no bad thing given that the course is based on heathland tracks in England.
 

Marc Warren: The Scot is playing his best golf of the season and has a previous T7 in this event.
 

Kiradech Aphibarnrat: Third in this tournament last year, albeit at a different course. Hinting at another big week after T12 in British Masters.

 

Matt Cooper joins Dave Tindall as a part of our European team. He contributes to player news, and he’ll share his selections and analysis for the Fantasy Race to Dubai at EuropeanTour.com.
 

Team Cooper (Team name: NormanStanleyFletcher)

 

Last week: Tough gig this: got four of the top six finishers but still lost ground.

 

Position: 2,926th

 

Byeong Hun An (captain): Had a few woes in recent weeks but back on the European Tour I'm happy to stick with him. 7 of last 10 starts at this level reaped top 8 finishes and the last failure might have done so but for a clumsy scorecard cock-up leading to a DQ.

 

Bernd Wiesberger (vc): Another who is a monster at European Tour level: 8 of his last 10 starts top 15 or better. Also a rarity in the field in having played the course, when T8 back in 2010 on the Challenge Tour.

 

Tyrrell Hatton: T19 and T26 in only previous Turkish outings and been impressive in recent weeks: maiden win, T9 to follow it and a neat T23 in the HSBC Champions last week.

 

Soren Kjeldsen: Mr Reliable, but this is more of a feel pick. The Peter Thomson creation demands shot-shaping and a little bit of brain work (in theory). Right up Soren's street – and he likes playing between trees too.

 

Andy Sullivan: T4 in this event in 2014 and second last time out. He does tend to throw low finishes together in bunches so I'll stick with him.

 

Matthew Southgate: 10 of his last 20 starts have reaped top 25 finishes. Played a lot of golf recently so last pick of the year, but if this plays anything like a Surrey heathland course (Thomson's design principle) then Southgate will love it.

Josh Culp
Josh Culp joined Rotoworld in 2014. The DFS enthusiast from Iowa State can be found on Twitter @futureoffantasy.