Quantifying Quarterbacks is an NFL Draft focused quarterback charting project geared toward providing as much information about as much of a quarterback's recent career as possible. Over 20 data points are recorded for any given pass attempt, ranging from down-and-distance, personnel grouping, play-action, depth of target, accuracy, and much more. Quantifying Quarterbacks charts the entirety of a quarterback's final college season, as well as a smaller sample (four games) from their previous season. All of this charting is done manually by me during and after the college football season. For a more in-depth look at what exactly Quantifying Quarterbacks is, here is a link to last year's final product: 2019 Quantifying Quarterbacks.
|Distance (Usage Rate)||Left Outside||Left Middle||Right Middle||Right Outside||Total|
|20+ (18.46%)||14/38 (2 TD, 1 INT)||2/10 (1 INT)||3/11 (2 TD)||13/25 (3 TD)||32/84 (7 TD, 2 INT)|
|16-20 (8.13%)||8/9 (4 TD)||5/9 (1 INT)||4/7 (2 TD)||8/12 (1 TD)||25/37 (7 TD, 1 INT)|
|11-15 (14.07%)||11/21||9/9 (2 TD)||8/12 (1 INT||14/22 (1 TD, 1 INT)||42/64 (3 TD, 2 INT|
|6-10 (17.36%)||17/22||22/24 (1 TD)||11/18 (1 TD, 1 INT)||11/15 (1 INT)||61/79 (2 TD, 2 INT)|
|1-5 (24.62%)||21/23 (2 TD, 1 INT)||24/38 (1 TD)||26/31 (2 TD)||14/20||85/112 (5 TD, 1 INT)|
|0 (15.60%)||21/22 (1 TD)||16/17 (1 TD)||21/23 (1 TD)||9/9||67/71 (3 TD)|
|Total (455 plays)||92/135 (9 TD, 2 INT||78/107 (5 TD, 2 INT)||73/102 (8 TD, 2 INT)||69/103 (5 TD, 2 INT)||312/447 (27 TD, 8 INT)|
Games Charted: Tennessee (2018), LSU (2018), Auburn (2018), Alabama (2018), entire 2019 season (minus Kentucky due to weather conditions)
Blatant Drops: 19
Forced Adjustments: 23 (5.05%)
Contested Drops: 38
Passes Defended: 39
Explosive: 49 (10.77% of plays)
Let’s get it out of the way early: Jake Fromm’s deep ball is an atrocity. At just 38.10% accuracy beyond 20 yards, Fromm has by far the worst deep accuracy of the 2020 quarterbacks I’ve charted and profiled so far. The next-worst among the six quarterbacks I’ve profiled thus far is Jordan Love, who still managed to clear the 40% mark at 44.21%. With four quarterbacks still to go, Fromm may not end up being the literal worst deep passer in the class, but he’s going to be in the race.
Oddly enough, his 16-20 yard accuracy isn’t too shabby. This is because many of the throws right into that range are back-shoulder fades, which Fromm actually throws quite well despite his downfield struggles elsewhere. If Fromm needs to drive a post between the hashes or heave one late down the sideline, it’s not likely he hits his mark, but if you need him to find someone on the back-shoulder near the sideline, Fromm is your guy.
The obvious penalty for Fromm’s downfield inaccuracy is his average explosive play percentage. 10.77% is not a bad number, though it does look small compared to quarterbacks who play in stellar, wide-open offenses, such as Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, Joe Burrow, and Jalen Hurts. 10.77% is slightly higher than the marks of Josh Allen (10.33%) and Lamar Jackson (9.98%), but falls just short of Sam Darnold (10.89%) and Drew Lock (11.09%), and is a clear step behind Dwayne Haskins (12.25%). Even among the two quarterbacks Fromm outpaced in Allen and Jackson, it should be kept in mind that both of those players created plenty of explosive plays with their feet (which I don’t chart/count) rather than their arms, especially Jackson. Fromm doesn’t do that.
ACCURACY AND ENVIRONMENT
Adjusted Accuracy: 69.98%
Outside the Pocket Percentage: 6.59%
Adjusted Accuracy Outside the Pocket: 47.67%
Under Pressure Percentage: 15.82%
Adjusted Accuracy Under Pressure: 45.28%
Most Common Personnel Package: 10 personnel (54.73%)
Shotgun Percentage: 93.63%
Empty Formations Frequency: 7.03%
Play-Action Percentage: 24.84%
Play-Action Adjusted Accuracy: 64.96%
Designed Rollout Frequency: 3.08%
Fromm’s 69.98% adjusted accuracy is firmly mediocre. Though not quite as lackluster as Sam Darnold’s 67.46% or Daniel Jones’ 67.60%, Fromm trails behind all of the top names in this year’s class as well as last year’s (save for Jones, of course, but Jones was not a “top” prospect for me personally). It wouldn’t be fair to point to Fromm’s overall adjusted accuracy as a reason to throw him away entirely, but when paired with some of his limitations on film, it should take him out of the conversation as a second-round option.
Even worse is Fromm’s play outside the pocket, however that is a somewhat convoluted issue. Fromm’s outside the pocket percentage is just 6.59%, which comes out to a whopping 30 plays out of 455 in his charting sample. That’s about two plays per game in which he is operating outside the pocket. Every other quarterback in this class (so far) at least crossed the 10% mark, with a handful crossing even the 15% mark. Even Haskins last year, who many harped on for being incapable and unwilling to play outside the pocket, threw 10.91% of his passes outside of the pocket and sported a roughly 70% accuracy rate from there. There is some degree of volatility in a 30-play sample that can somewhat explain away a poor 47.67% accuracy rate outside the pocket, but still, it’s ugly to see.
But wait, there is more (to be worried about)! Fromm also turned in an abysmal adjusted accuracy score when under pressure. The only other quarterback to come in under 50% in this class (so far) is Jordan Love, who I have already picked out as someone who is generally overrated given his status as a likely first-round pick. Granted, Tua Tagovailoa barely cleared the 50% mark at 50.19%, but Tagovailoa also has a handful of other redeeming factors that Fromm doesn’t have. Fromm’s struggles versus pressure come down to two things: 1) an inability to operate outside the structure of a play, and 2) the inability to muster up requisite arm strength when his throwing platform is compromised in any way.
Avg. Number of Pass Rushers: 4.31
Three or Fewer Pass Rushers Frequency: 8.13%
Four Pass Rushers Frequency: 59.34%
Five Pass Rushers Frequency: 26.81%
Six or More Pass Rushers Frequency: 5.71%
There isn’t anything out of the ordinary to pick from Fromm’s pass rush numbers. If anything, Fromm saw a below-average amount of three-or-fewer pass-rushers, but he won’t have the lowest mark in the class. Tua Tagovailoa (7.26%) already has him beat there. Likewise, Jordan Love already has a lower six-or-more percentage, while both Tagovailoa and Jalen Hurts have higher six-or-more percentages. Fromm’s average pass-rusher count comes in right around the middle, too, and would lean barely toward below-average, if anything.
3rd/4th Down Adjusted Accuracy: 63.11%
3rd/4th Down Conversion Rate: 43.92%
4th Quarter/Overtime Adjusted Accuracy: 65.96%
Red Zone Adjusted Accuracy: 64.84%
If there is anywhere in Fromm’s profile where I believe he is better than the numbers say, it is during situational play. Granted, none of these numbers are awful, but it’s true that none of them pop off the screen as being that impressive.
On film, however, it’s clear how cool and calculated Fromm can be. Fromm’s pre-snap knowledge and responsibility enables him to keep the offense in the best possible play for the given moment. Furthermore, he is not scared to make a bit of a risky throw if it means moving the sticks, even if he does not always show the arm strength to hit throws. Fromm’s attitude and approach in handling third downs, late-game situations, the red zone, etc. is exactly what every coach wants to see from a veteran quarterback, never mind a 22-year-old rookie.