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Rankings

2020 Adjusted Production Scores (Defense)

by Hayden Winks
Updated On: April 6, 2020, 11:00 am ET

There are three things that go into my Analytics Top 300 NFL Draft models -- projected draft capital (essentially a film grade), athleticism, and production. I already have posted my Adjusted SPARQ athleticism scores here, so now it’s time to address how productive these defensive players are. To create my “Adjusted Production” score, I analyzed which college stats have been the most predictive for NFL success, and then adjusted those for age (being young is good) and team strength (playing on a good team is good). You’ll see the historical percentiles for the 2020 defensive draft class below. My database goes back to 2005 and is filled with drafted players from FBS colleges. 

 

Interior Defensive Line

The key stats for the position are tackles for loss and solo tackles. Please do not use sacks, assisted tackles, total tackles, or pass deflections as evidence for or against a player. TFLs and solos are the ones worth citing.

How to read:Derrick Brown had an 87th percentile Adjusted Production score.”

Player

College

Adjusted Production

James Lynch

Baylor

0.98

Leki Fotu

Utah

0.88

Derrick Brown

Auburn

0.87

Rashard Lawrence

LSU

0.87

Ross Blacklock

Texas Christian

0.75

Jordan Elliott

Missouri

0.64

Justin Madubuike

Texas A&M

0.63

Khalil Davis

Nebraska

0.62

Larrell Murchison

NC State

0.61

Carlos Davis

Nebraska

0.44

Raequan Williams

Michigan State

0.42

Malcolm Roach

Texas

0.40

Broderick Washington

Texas Tech

0.34

DaVon Hamilton

Ohio State

0.34

McTelvin Agim

Arkansas

0.31

Benito Jones

Ole Miss

0.30

Javon Kinlaw

South Carolina

0.29

John Penisini

Utah

0.27

Neville Gallimore

Oklahoma

0.25

Raekwon Davis

Alabama

0.21

Robert Windsor

Penn State

0.18

Darrion Daniels

Nebraska

0.05

Josiah Coatney

Ole Miss

0.02

 

Edge Rushers

The key stats for the position are combined tackles and tackles for loss, not sacks. If a prospect has a ton of sacks, then awesome, but it’s totally fine if a prospect has a ton of TFLs and forgettable sack totals. Pass deflections also hold some predictive value. 

How to read:Chase Young had a 99th percentile Adjusted Production score.”

Prospect

College

Adjusted Production

Chase Young

Ohio State

0.99

K'Lavon Chaisson

LSU

0.95

A.J. Epenesa

Iowa

0.89

Curtis Weaver

Boise State

0.89

Terrell Lewis

Alabama

0.88

Jonathan Greenard

Florida

0.86

Marlon Davidson

Auburn

0.84

Anfernee Jennings

Alabama

0.84

Bradlee Anae

Utah

0.82

Alex Highsmith

Charlotte

0.80

Kenny Willekes

Michigan State

0.72

Josh Uche

Michigan

0.72

Alton Robinson

Syracuse

0.72

Zack Baun

Wisconsin

0.68

Yetur Gross-Matos

Penn State

0.61

Carter Coughlin

Minnesota

0.60

Jonathan Garvin

Miami (FL)

0.53

Khalid Kareem

Notre Dame

0.46

Trevis Gipson

Tulsa

0.42

Kendall Coleman

Syracuse

0.36

Chauncey Rivers

Mississippi State

0.27

D.J. Wonnum

South Carolina

0.23

Julian Okwara

Notre Dame

0.21

Darrell Taylor

Tennessee

0.19

Casey Toohill

Stanford

0.19

LaDarius Hamilton

North Texas

0.17

Trevon Hill

Miami (FL)

0.15

Jason Strowbridge

North Carolina

0.13

Tipa Galeai

Utah State

0.11

Jabari Zuniga

Florida

0.11

Nick Coe

Auburn

0.08

Derrek Tuszka

North Dakota State

0.07

James Smith-Williams

North Carolina State

0.03

Qaadir Sheppard

Ole Miss

0.00

 

Linebackers

The key stats for the position are total tackles and solo tackles. Pretty simple.

How to read:Isaiah Simmons had a 98th percentile Adjusted Production score.”

Prospect

College

Adjusted Production

Evan Weaver

California

0.99

Isaiah Simmons

Clemson

0.98

Kenneth Murray

Oklahoma

0.97

Jacob Phillips

LSU

0.96

Patrick Queen

LSU

0.95

David Woodward

Utah State

0.86

Jordyn Brooks

Texas Tech

0.86

Malik Harrison

Ohio State

0.85

Michael Pinckney

Miami

0.83

Joe Bachie

Michigan State

0.78

Davion Taylor

Colorado

0.74

Michael Divinity Jr.

LSU

0.71

Akeem Davis-Gaither

Appalachian State

0.69

Clay Johnston

Baylor

0.67

Shaquille Quarterman

Miami (FL)

0.64

Kamal Martin

Minnesota

0.63

Khaleke Hudson

Michigan

0.62

Cale Garrett

Missouri

0.61

Cameron Brown

Penn State

0.53

Daniel Bituli

Tennessee

0.46

Justin Strnad

Wake Forest

0.42

Willie Gay

Mississippi State

0.42

Jordan Mack

Virginia

0.42

Troy Dye

Oregon

0.40

De'Jon Harris

Arkansas

0.40

Markus Bailey

Purdue

0.32

Francis Bernard

Utah

0.27

Logan Wilson

Wyoming

0.24

Dante Olson

Montana

0.23

Mykal Walker

Fresno State

0.17

Shaun Bradley

Temple

0.16

Azur Kamara

Kansas

0.13

Chapelle Russell

Temple

0.11

 

Safeties

The key stats for the position are… none! Tackles, TFLs, interceptions, and pass deflections all have minimal predictive power, so I’m paying more attention to age and team strength relative to other positions. 

How to read:Xavier McKinney had a 100th percentile Adjusted Production score.”

Prospect

College

Adjusted Production

Xavier McKinney

Alabama

1.00

Antoine Winfield Jr.

Minnesota

0.95

Grant Delpit

LSU

0.92

Terrell Burgess

Utah

0.90

Julian Blackmon

Utah

0.87

Geno Stone

Iowa

0.87

Jalen Elliott

Notre Dame

0.73

Kamren Curl

Arkansas

0.72

BranDon Jones

Texas

0.68

K'Von Wallace

Clemson

0.62

Jordan Fuller

Ohio State

0.61

Josh Metellus

Michigan

0.57

Alohi Gilman

Notre Dame

0.56

Chris Miller

Baylor

0.52

Daniel Thomas

Auburn

0.50

Antoine Brooks

Maryland

0.43

Myles Bryant

Washington

0.41

Jeremy Chinn

Southern Illinois

0.37

J.R. Reed

Georgia

0.30

Rodney Clemons

Southern Methodist

0.28

Grayland Arnold

Baylor

0.24

Nevelle Clarke

UCF

0.21

Jaylinn Hawkins

California

0.15

Tanner Muse

Clemson

0.12

L'Jarius Sneed

Louisiana Tech

0.06

Ashtyn Davis

California

0.03

Kyle Dugger

Lenoir-Rhyne

0.01

 

Corners

The key stats for the position are… none! Tackles don’t matter. Neither do interceptions. I only added pass deflections to age and team strength to create this “Adjusted Production” score, but it’s predictive power is lower compared to other positions. This is a “watch the tape” position.

How to read:Jeffrey Okudah had a 98th percentile Adjusted Production score.”

Prospect

College

Adjusted Production

Jeffrey Okudah

Ohio State

0.98

Amik Robertson

Louisiana Tech

0.97

Kristian Fulton

LSU

0.96

C.J. Henderson

Florida

0.93

Lavert Hill

Michigan

0.90

Jaylon Johnson

Utah

0.85

Cameron Dantzler

Mississippi State

0.83

Noah Igbinoghene

Auburn

0.72

Trevon Diggs

Alabama

0.71

Essang Bassey

Wake Forest

0.69

A.J. Terrell

Clemson

0.68

Josiah Scott

Michigan State

0.66

Javelin Guidry

Utah

0.66

Stanford Samuels

Florida State

0.64

Michael Ojemudia

Iowa

0.62

Harrison Hand

Temple

0.57

Shyheim Carter

Alabama

0.57

Darnay Holmes

UCLA

0.57

Damon Arnette

Ohio State

0.51

Lamar Jackson

Nebraska

0.51

A.J. Green

Oklahoma State

0.50

Trajan Bandy

Miami (FL)

0.47

Troy Pride Jr.

Notre Dame

0.42

John Reid

Penn State

0.36

Reggie Robinson

Tulsa

0.32

Jeff Gladney

Texas Christian

0.31

Javaris Davis

Auburn

0.29

Bryce Hall

Virginia

0.27

Kindle Vildor

Georgia Southern

0.16

Thakarius Keyes

Tulane

0.14

Dane Jackson

Pitt

0.14

James Pierre

Florida Atlantic

0.10

Stantley Thomas-Oliver

Florida International

0.07

Brian Cole

Mississippi State

0.05

 

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5. Winks WR Rankings

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8. 2020 Adjusted SPARQ Scores (Defense)

9. 2020 Adjusted Production Scores (Defense)

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