Tonight we have a massive 15-game slate, with a lot of great places to look for offense, along with multiple pitchers at each price range to look at.
Justin Verlander @ Cincinnati Reds
At this point of the season, we know what we're getting from Justin Verlander. He has a 32.8% strikeout rate with a 15.8% swinging strike rate on the season, and he's scored over 30 DK points and 50 FD points in six of his last 10 starts. As for tonight's matchup, the projected starting lineup for the Reds has a 22.5% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers this season. I do worry about the high flyball rate for Verlander in this ballpark, but I still think he has the highest floor with the most upside on this slate.
Brandon Woodruff @ San Diego Padres
Woodruff is one of my favorite pitchers this evening, as he gets a nice ballpark bump pitching in San Diego. The Padres have a lot of right-handed power in this lineup, but they're lacking from the left side of the plate. Woodruff has a .243 wOBA with a .081 ISO and a 29.3% strikeout rate against right-handed hitters this season, while posting a .333 wOBA with a .156 ISO and a 28.5% strikeout rate against left-handed hitters. The projected starting lineup for the Padres has a 26.4% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers this season. All in all, I love the upside for Woodruff in this matchup, and I think he's a great option if you're not paying all the way up to Verlander.
Travis d'Arnaud @ New York Yankees
I like saving money at catcher when I can, and I think tonight is a good night to pay down at catcher. Happ has struggled with right-handed hitters this season, as he has a .238 ISO with a 42.2% hard-hit rate and a 49.1% flyball rate against right-handed hitters. He also has a 2.14 HR/9 against righties. D'Arnaud has appealing upside in this spot, as he has a .179 ISO with a 41.9% hard-hit rate and a 315.9 average air distance against left-handed pitching this season.
Daniel Vogelbach vs. Kansas City Royals
Vogelbach has been one of my favorite hitters to play this season, and I love the power upside he brings to the plate almost every night. He has a .325 ISO with a .449 wOBA and a 42.1% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitchers this season. Homer Bailey has been decent, but he's still allowing a lot of hard contact. He has a 43.4% hard-hit rate against left-handed hitters, with only a 12% soft contact rate. I don't actually hate Bailey either in this spot, but I do think Vogelbach is one of the best one-off plays on this slate.
Ketel Marte vs. Colorado Rockies
I think Cano and Kipnis are great value options at second base tonight, but I like the idea of paying up for Marte or Muncy to be different. Senzatela has been awful against left-handed hitters this season. He has a .445 wOBA with a .241 ISO and a 12.6% strikeout rate against lefties. And, with the roof open in Arizona, I think the Diamondbacks are a great three to four-man stack to target. Marte in particular has a .251 ISO with a .365 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. Meanwhile, Senzatela throws his fastball 64% of the time against lefties, and he has allowed a .480 wOBA with a .263 ISO with that pitch this season.
Matt Carpenter vs. Miami Marlins
Yamamoto was really good in his first career start and it was against this same Cardinals offense. But, when we dig a little more into the numbers of that start, I'd say Yamamoto had a little luck. He had a 97.1 average exit velocity and a 269.3 average distance against the left-handed hitters. Tonight Yamamoto will make his second career Major League start, and I'm going to have a few Cardinals stacks. Carpenter isn't having the best season, but we know he still has power and hits flyballs against right-handed pitching. I think he sets the table for the offense in this spot tonight.
Francisco Lindor @ Texas Rangers
I think shortstop is an ideal place to pay up for tonight. If I'm not paying up, I'm going mid-tier, but I don't think I'd punt shortstop altogether. Cleveland is one of the top stacks on the slate, as they're facing a pitcher that allows a lot of hard contact in one of the best hitting environments in baseball. Lindor has a .241 ISO with a .392 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. The thing that stands out to me most is that Sampson has a 48% hard-hit rate against lefties, while Lindor has a 47.9% hard-hit rate against righties. There is an above average chance for hard contact in this matchup.
Yordan Alvarez @ Cincinnati Reds
The powerful left-handed prospect has made a huge splash with four home runs in his first seven Major League games. He draws an excellent matchup on the road tonight, and it's in one of the best ballparks for home runs. DeSclafani continues to struggle with left-handed hitters, as he has surrendered a .411 wOBA with a .292 ISO and a 201.3 average air distance against lefties this season. His biggest problem when pitching at home is his massive hard-hit rate with the amount of flyballs he allows; DeSclafani has a 2.56 HR/9 against lefties this season. Alvarez is one of my favorite hitters on this slate, and I think Michael Brantley is too cheap as well.
David Peralta vs. Colorado Rockies
I talked about the Arizona spot above with Marte, but I wanted to highlight more than one of these Diamondbacks. Since the start of 2016, Peralta has a .403 wOBA with a .229 ISO and a 92.8 average exit velocity against right-handed fastballs. He also has a .261 ISO with a .387 wOBA and a 40% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching this season. I like the idea of attacking this spot with the lefties, but I don't mind looking at Jones and Walker if I'm going with a full stack.