I hope everyone had an awesome Thanksgiving. With the three games on Thursday this week, we have a smaller main slate on FanDuel and DraftKings. I really like this slate and I'm really hoping people overthink this one. Let's get into some of my top cash and tournament plays for week 12 on FanDuel and DraftKings.
Cash Game Targets
Cam Newton vs. Seattle Seahawks
Without Mahomes, Goff, and Brees on this slate, if I'm paying up, I'm paying up for the safety of Cam Newton. Cam didn't throw a touchdown in Week 1 against the Falcons, but he's thrown at least two touchdowns in the nine straight games since. Seattle has allowed multiple passing touchdowns in four straight games, and three of those games they allowed 300+ passing yards. Newton is averaging 7.7 carries per game, which is the most among quarterbacks, and his 13 red zone carries is the second most among quarterbacks.
Nick Mullens @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This is strictly a FanDuel play, and while I like him in tournaments on DraftKings, I won't have him in my cash lineup. Tampa is allowing the most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, and they've allowed multiple passing touchdowns in eight of ten games. The 49ers were on a bye last week, and that should really help the young quarterback. Mullens threw for 262 yards and three touchdowns against the Raiders but struggled in his last start against the Giants. The Tampa defense has really struggled against the pass this season, and I really like the price tag for Mullens on FanDuel.
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Baker Mayfield @ Cincinnati Bengals
I love the Cleveland offense this weekend, and plan on being way overweight on them. With a new coach and play-caller, the bye week should have been very helpful for this young Cleveland offense. The Bengals are allowing the second most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, but they're ranked 18th in DVOA. I really like DVOA and while I use it a lot, this team is a mess defensively right now. They faced Lamar Jackson last weekend, but the three games before that they allowed ten passing touchdowns. Mayfield has thrown multiple passing touchdowns in four straight games.
Jameis Winston vs. San Francisco 49ers
For anyone that played Fitzpatrick last week, there's still a really bad taste in your mouth. With DFS, we have to have a short memory, and while the getting replaced mid game thing worries me, I still really like this spot. The 49ers are ranked 21st in DVOA against the pass, Winston posted over 26 DraftKings points in two of his three starts. He's going to be playing with something to prove, and I think this game has really sneaky shootout potential.
Cash Game Targets
Saquon Barkley @ Philadelphia Eagles
If you're paying up at running back, Barkley's workload continues to make him a really safe cash game option. He's averaging 22.4 touches per game this season, and he's top ten in both receiving and rushing yards. He's averaging 6.4 catches per game, which is the second most among running backs. His 38 red zone touches are the third most in the NFL this season. The Eagles rank 22nd in DVOA against the run this season, and they've allowed over 150 rushing yards in back-to-back games.
Nick Chubb @ Cincinnati Bengals
Like I mentioned above with Mayfield, I really like this offense in week 12. I'm going to be overweight on Chubb, and I think he's one of the best point per dollar plays on this slate. The Bengals have allowed over 100-yards rushing in five of the last six games, and they've allowed at least one rushing touchdown in five straight games. They're allowing the second most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs. Since taking over for Hyde, Chubb has at least 18 carries in four straight games, and really broke out against Atlanta in week 10.
Marlon Mack vs. Miami Marlins
As a Dolphins fan, it's been a rough season watching them try to stop the run. They've allowed over 100-rushing yards in seven of ten games this season and four of the last five. They're allowing the fifth most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs, and they've allowed at least one touchdown in seven games this season. Mack has at least 17 touches in three of the last four games and has been a top three running back in two of the last four games. The Colts have the highest implied team total on the slate, which makes me like Mack even more in this spot.
Leonard Fournette @ Buffalo Bills
If you're playing on DraftKings this weekend, Fournette has a really juicy price tag. Fournette has 29 and 30 touches in the two games since returning from a hamstring injury. The Bills are ranked 10th in DVOA against the run, but they’re allowing the 11th most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs. While I don’t love this matchup on paper, I absolutely love the volume of touches Fournette has been receiving. With this being a big game for the Jaguars, I don't expect his touches to go down a lot this weekend.