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Rotogrinders Exclusive

RotoGrinders Primer: Week 14

by Stephen Keech

Welcome to the Week 14 edition of the RotoGrinders Primer! It’s crazy that we’re closing in on the end of the regular season, but the good news is we have a hefty 13-game slate on tap with byes in the rearview mirror.

I'll dive into a handful of the available research tools at RotoGrinders to uncover some of the top options for Sunday’s main slate.

A few of the tools I’ll dive into are for DFS premium members, so you’ll get a sneak preview of our top content. I’ll also take a look at some of my favorite free content that I use weekly while building my own lineups. Let’s get into it…

 

Targets & Touches

The Targets & Touches page is something I use every week during football season – it’s one of the best indicators of opportunity, which we like for fantasy purposes. You can find target data for RBs, WRs and TEs in addition to snap data and percentage of workload information. One of my favorite features is that you can view this information alongside salaries for each site, which makes it a little easier to spot value.

 

Jeff Wilson Jr. ($5,600 on FanDuel, $3,800 on DraftKings) – With Matt Breida looking at an inactive status on Sunday, Wilson figures to head the 49ers backfield with afterthought Alfred Morris being his biggest threat for work. Kyle Shanahan didn’t hesitate to get Wilson involved following Breida’s Week 13 injury, as he handled 23 touches to Morris’ nine, all of which were carries. Wilson caught eight of his nine targets and his ability to handle work on all three downs makes him a safer cash game target at a low price. Denver had a boatload of struggles with opposing running games early in the year, but they’ve tightened things up since. This isn’t a friendly draw, but the type of volume Wilson figures to receive makes him viable in all formats.

 

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David Johnson ($7,000 on FanDuel, $6,500 on DraftKings) – Johnson didn’t play badly last week but was vultured twice in the red-zone by Chase Edmonds. That clearly put a huge damper in his end production, yet he still saw 20+ touches and was a focal point on a team that can’t move the ball through the air, so he’s due for some touchdown regression in a spot where he’s likely to go overlooked on both major sites. There is a lot of appealing value at RB which makes it easier to pair them with a McCaffrey/Barkley/Elliott up top, leading to contrarian appeal for Johnson. Detroit’s offense is missing a handful of weapons and their offensive line could provide the Cardinals Offense with some good field position. Johnson ranks 10th among RBs on the main slate in percentage of workload (targets only) and should once again be in for 20+ touches. He hasn’t scored in three straight games, but I’d bet on that ending here.

 

Eric Ebron ($6,400 on FanDuel, $5,700 on DraftKings) – The Texans are an extremely attackable defense with TEs and with Jack Doyle on the shelf for the remainder of the year, Ebron figures to be funneled targets with consistent usage in the red-zone. He saw another big workload sans Doyle last weekend, reeling in 10 of 16 targets in a game where the Colts failed to score a point. Ebron lost a fumble, didn’t score a touchdown and still managed to provide cash game value. Despite not being an every-down player all year, Ebron still ranks 3rd among TEs on the main slate in targets and is tied for first at the position in red-zone looks. Fire him up confidently in all formats.

 

 

WR/CB Matchup Chart

We’ll pivot over to the Wide Receiver/Cornerback Chart, which helps to highlight some of the better matchups for receivers each week. It’s an extreme rarity that one corner follows a particular receiver for all of his snaps, so this chart shows which matchup each receiver is likely to be in for the largest number of his snaps. Snap data available on the chart gives you a better idea of how often each matchup is likely to occur.

 

Keenan Allen ($7,900 on FanDuel, $7,400 on DraftKings) – With Melvin Gordon looking like he’s going to sit again on Sunday, Allen should continue to see more work in the red-zone and has been raking of late after complaining in November about a lack of usage. Cincinnati’s secondary is a green light for opposing pass-catchers and Allen’s primary matchup with Darqueze Dennard is a good one, slotting him second on the WR/CB Chart in Matchup Rating. Given how poor the Bengals have played offensively with Andy Dalton on the shelf, there is a little risk of a blowout here, but that lead will likely be built through a handful of Phillip Rivers touchdown passes. Allen is particularly valuable on DraftKings this week at $7,400, as he’s a little better suited for full-point PPR formats and should be pricier with Gordon out.

 

Davante Adams ($8,700 on FanDuel, $8,400 on DraftKings) – Adams has been a touchdown machine over the past two years and has already went for over 1,100 yards this year. Neither Marquez Valdes-Scantling or Eqanimeous St. Brown have stepped up enough to the point where Jake Kumerow is now getting involved, and Randall Cobb hasn’t been anything close to consistent when he’s been active outside of consistently showing no explosiveness since Week 1. Adams leads the WR position in red-zone looks and is third among receivers in targets. He holds the 4th best Matchup Rating in Week 14 with Robert Alford being his primary matchup, but Adams moves all over the field and if left alone one-on-one with any of the Falcons corners, he’s going to win.

 

Courtland Sutton ($5,600 on FanDuel, $4,500 on DraftKings) – Emmanuel Sanders’ injury is devastating news to a team that was already struggling to move the ball through the air, but it does bode well for Sutton’s DFS viability. His size already makes him a sensible option towards the goal-line, but he figures to see WR1 usage with only DaeSean Hamilton and Tim Patrick threatening his looks. Hamilton played a heavy snap count in Week 13 but failed to do anything with it, although a week of practice should change that. Still, at his price Sutton’s likely WR1 role makes him a strong value in any format. He’s likely to draw Ahkello Witherspoon on a good chunk of his routes, a plus considering Witherspoon is the 10th lowest-rated corner on the chart.

 

Value Town!

Welcome to Value Town, parts unknown. I won’t be recommending the Todd Gurleys of the world here, but instead will try to find a handful of viable value plays at each position to make the rest of the roster building process a little easier. I won’t go into detail for each player, but they are ranked in order of preference for GPPs/tournaments at each position.

 

Quarterbacks

  1. Jameis Winston ($7,700 on FanDuel) – He’s not as cheap relative to the field on DraftKings, but he’s a top option in all formats.
  2. Lamar Jackson ($7,500 on FanDuel, $5,700 on DraftKings)
  3. Dak Prescott ($7,400 on FanDuel, $5,600 on DraftKings)

 

Running Backs

  1. Jeff Wilson Jr. ($5,600 on FanDuel, $3,800 on DraftKings)
  2. Jaylen Samuels ($4,600 on FanDuel, $3,700 on DraftKings)
  3. Austin Ekeler on FanDuel ($6,700) and Justin Jackson on DraftKings ($3,800)

 

Wide Receivers

  1. Courtland Sutton ($5,600 on FanDuel, $4,500 on DraftKings)
  2. Chris Godwin ($5,600 on FanDuel, $4,900 on DraftKings)
  3. Zay Jones ($5,100 on FanDuel, $4,200 on DraftKings)

 

Tight Ends

  1. Eric Ebron ($6,400 on FanDuel, $5,700 on DraftKings)
  2. Matt LaCosse ($4,500 on FanDuel, $2,700 on DraftKings)
  3. Vance McDonald ($5,500 on FanDuel, $3,800 on DraftKings)
Stephen Keech
Stephen "SBK" Keech is a head-to-head specialist who has shot up to being ranked in the Top 100 for Overall, MLB, NBA, and NHL. SBK’s a lead contributor on RotoGrinders, and can be found on Twitter @StephByronKeech.