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Roundball Stew

30-Deep Breakdown, Part 2

by Matt Stroup
Updated On: October 4, 2018, 4:09 pm ET

Over the course of four days last week, 30 fantasy basketball experts piled into a small, poorly air-conditioned Internet draft room and proceeded to select a total of 360 players. The end result is the fantasy league known as 30-Deep, a league I was lucky enough to win last year. (If you want to know how much luck was involved, I would say it was about this much.)

I already posted the top-100 picks from this year’s draft right here, and after receiving multiple requests for more results, I will now break down picks No. 101-200 below.

 

Editor's Note: Rotoworld's partner FanDuel is hosting a one-day $200,000 Fantasy Basketball league for October 29th's games. It's $25 to join and first prize is $20,000. Starts at 7pm ET on October 29th. Here's the FanDuel link.

This is a 9-category Head-to-Head league, with eight starters (PG, SG, SF, PF, C, G, F, Util) and four bench spots, which means there are a ton of marginal players owned in this league. Fact: Jimmer Fredette is on someone’s roster. And by someone’s, I mean mine. More on that later, but in the meantime, here are the picks…

(Note: You can follow me on Twitter here, and check out all the exclusive content in the Rotoworld Draft Guide right here.)

101. Alec Burks (Nick Raducanu, Rotoworld)
102. Luol Deng
103. Jeff Green
104. Darren Collison
105. J.R. Smith
106. Patrick Beverley (Aaron Bruski, Rotoworld)
107. Danilo Gallinari
108. Jamal Crawford
109. Mason Plumlee (Nets)
110. Giannis Antetokounmpo

Comments: In my opinion these are 10 solid deep-league picks, so any nitpicking here is more about their outlook in standard-sized leagues. … My question with Alec Burks is simple: Can he do more than score? Last season he posted 14.0 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 2.7 apg, 0.9 spg and 0.6 3s. Through four preseason games, he has posted 17.0 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 2.0 apg and 1.8 spg, shooting 0-of-6 on 3s. The points are nice, and more steals would certainly help, but I’m not convinced Burks will help you much outside of one category. … Over the last five seasons, Deng’s blocked shots have gone from 0.9 to 0.6 to 0.7 to 0.4 to 0.1 last year. He’s still a solid scorer, but is clearly becoming less dynamic as he approaches 30. Personally I’d rather have Jeff Green, who will score a similar amount (16.9 ppg last year), can still block a shot here and there (0.7 the last two years), and should also hit more 3s (1.6). … Collison has never averaged 6-plus apg, has only once averaged more than 13 points, and has never topped 1.0 3s (last year’s 0.9 was a career-high). Being in a platoon with Ramon Sessions has a boring 12 and 5 written all over it. … Beverley is a nice deep league pickup for 3s and steals (1.6 3s and 1.4 spg last year), but the Houston offense is still going to run through James Harden a lot, so even with Chandler Parsons gone, it’s hard to expect a major improvement over last year’s 2.7 apg. … With so much uncertainty for Brook Lopez (and with Kevin Garnett a part-time player at age 38), Mason Plumlee is a late-round pick that could pan out brilliantly. … Antetokounmpo ends the preseason averaging 9.0 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 1.9 apg, 0.9 spg and 1.3 bpg, shooting 0-of-12 on 3s. I have no objection to drafting him in the 110 range based on defensive potential alone, but I think expectations for the 19-year-old’s offense need to remain pretty modest this year.

111. Eric Gordon
112. Paul Pierce
113. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
114. Taj Gibson
115. Enes Kanter
116. Amir Johnson (Me)
117. John Henson
118. Andre Iguodala
119. Omer Asik
120. Anderson Varejao

Comments: In a standard league I would probably take Henson ahead of Amir Johnson, because Henson has the higher ceiling. However, in this absurdly deep league I know exactly what I’m getting from Amir (last two seasons: 10.2 ppg, 7.1 rpg, 0.9 spg, 1.3 bpg while only missing a total of six games). … My issue with Kanter is that he doesn’t do anything defensively (0.4 spg and 0.5 bpg last year; one steal and two blocks total through his first seven preseason games), so he needs to hit 3s to make himself stand out. Along those lines, Kanter is just 3-of-14 on 3s in the preseason, but did go 2-of-2 (finishing with 27 points) on Tuesday. … Varejao (22 points, eight boards, two steals, two blocks in just 23 minutes on Monday) looks ready to thrive while healthy, but has appeared in an average of 37 games the last four years (including 65 last season). I’m staying away. … Along those lines, Eric Gordon doesn’t do enough when healthy (15.4 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 3.3 apg, 1.2 spg, 1.6 3s last year) to justify all the missed games (an average of 47 games played the last five seasons). I’ll get my steals and 3s elsewhere.

121. Andrew Bogut
122. Terrence Ross
123. Steven Adams
124. Timofey Mozgov
125. Avery Bradley (Me)
126. Tony Wroten
127. Tyson Chandler
128. Mario Chalmers
129. Danny Green
130. Rodney Stuckey

Comments: Continuing the missed games theme, Bogut (67 games last year) is a cheap source of blocks (1.8) and rebounds (10.0), and because of the scarcity of blocks, I’d be more inclined to grab him with a late-round pick as opposed to Varejao or Gordon. … Terrence Ross and Danny Green will probably both be streaky and frustrating with the occasional monster game. The tiebreaker between the two is Green’s defense (1.0 spg, 0.8 bpg the last three years). … Meanwhile, I’d take Avery Bradley ahead of both of them. Yes, he’s been mostly useless in rebounds (3.8) and assists (1.4), but he quietly posted 14.9 ppg, 1.1 spg and 1.3 3s last year, and at age 23 could easily improve in all three categories. … Getting Tyson Chandler this late is a steal. The last four seasons he has averaged 10.2 ppg, 9.9 rpg, 0.7 spg and 1.2 bpg. I wanted to take him ahead of Amir Johnson (my pick at No. 116), but positions really matter in this league, and I needed a PF. … I’m not buying into a Rodney Stuckey revival in Indy. The last three seasons he has averaged a mind-numbingly bland 13.2 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 3.1 apg, 0.7 spg and 0.5 3s in 28 minutes per game.

131. Josh McRoberts
132. Gorgui Dieng
133. Bojan Bogdanovic
134. Tristan Thompson
135. Jeremy Lamb (Bruski)
136. Jameer Nelson
137. Matt Barnes
138. DeMarre Carroll
139. Evan Turner
140. Dion Waiters (Raducanu)

Comments: McRoberts should eventually provide good value, though he has yet to return to action after toe surgery. … When Nikola Pekovic was sidelined for 15 of Minnesota’s last 18 games, Dieng averaged 12.0 ppg, 11.3 rpg, 1.1 spg and 1.5 bpg. That’s well worth keeping in mind since Pekovic has never played more than 65 games in a season. … Thompson averaged 0.9 bpg his first two seasons, but dropped off to 0.4 bpg last year. With just three blocks in six preseason games, and a backup role to start the season, he’s not a player I’ll be targeting in the final rounds. … Waiters should get plenty of chances to knock down 3s, but at best he’s now the No. 4 option in that offense, so I’d expect him to lose at least a few points from last year’s high-volume 15.9 ppg.

141. K.J. McDaniels (Knaus)
142. Ramon Sessions
143. JaVale McGee
144. Carlos Boozer
145. Channing Frye
146. Ersan Ilyasova
147. Marcus Smart (Mike Gallagher, Rotoworld)
148. Gerald Green
149. C.J. Miles (Steve Alexander, Rotoworld)
150. Miles Plumlee (Suns)

Comments: Defensive specialist McDaniels has averaged 1.0 spg and 2.0 bpg through seven preseason games, but has taken some of the air out of his own sleeper balloon by posting 7.4 ppg and 0.4 3s (3-of-18 from 3-point range). I’m happy to take him as one of my last picks, but it’s looking like he’ll have to hit a high percentage of his 3s to be reliable in fantasy leagues. … I’ve been an Ilyasova supporter in the past, but with knee trouble already slowing him down this preseason, I’m officially moving on. Too many headaches, too much frustration, too many small electronic items thrown through windows in my home. Goodbye, Ersan. It’s been memorable. … Marcus Smart is worth drafting late to see how things play out while Rajon Rondo is sidelined (and to see if Smart can carve out a 25-plus minute combo guard role even once Rondo is back). Smart posted 8.4 ppg, 4.6 apg, 2.4 spg and 1.4 3s in the preseason.

151. Mirza Teletovic
152. Norris Cole (Alexander)
153. Spencer Hawes
154. Rudy Gobert (Gallagher)
155. Marvin Williams
156. Henry Sims
157. Marco Belinelli
158. Tim Hardaway Jr.
159. Nick Young
160. Vince Carter (Knaus)

Comments: If you find yourself short on 3s at the end of your draft, don’t forget Teletovic. He averaged 11.9 ppg and 2.8 3s in eight April games last year, and posted 12.0 ppg and 2.8 3s in six preseason games this month. … If you believe that Marvin Williams can post useful numbers as Charlotte’s starting PF, I’d like to sell you some of my old socks at a very reasonable price. … Gobert (who had 20 rebounds in a preseason game last week) is an intriguing bench flier for owners in deeper leagues.

161. Nene Hilario (Raducanu)
162. Julius Randle
163. Andrea Bargnani
164. Manu Ginobili
165. Nik Stauskas
166. Samuel Dalembert (Bruski)
167. Aaron Gordon
168. Wes Johnson
169. P.J. Tucker
170. Greivis Vasquez

Comments: Nene’s injuries are maddening, but there’s no denying that he’s useful when healthy (14.2 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 2.9 apg, 1.2 spg, 0.9 bpg in 53 games last year). … Randle is on my watch list, though Carlos Boozer is a legitimate roadblock right now. … Stauskas should be a decent source of 3s, but his college and preseason resume suggest he won’t help at all in rebounds, assists and steals.

171. Marcus Morris
172. Mo Williams
173. Rodney Hood
174. Ben McLemore
175. Glen Rice Jr.
176. Harrison Barnes (Me)
177. Shaun Livingston
178. Iman Shumpert
179. O.J. Mayo
180. Shabazz Napier

Comments: If Harrison Barnes gets me 11 and 5 with a steal and a 3 per game in this format, I’ll be happy. … O.J. Mayo had a couple noisy games during the preseason (scoring 19 and 24 in back-to-back games), and it sounds like he could be ready to bounce back after a rotten season last year. The problem, however, is minutes. Mayo has always been a player who thrived because of high volume (his three best seasons came when he played 35 or more minutes per game), and with the crowded rotation in Milwaukee, something like 25-28 minutes a game seems far more realistic.

181. Doug McDermott
182. Anthony Bennett
183. Jarrett Jack
184. James Ennis
185. Otto Porter (Me)
186. Dante Exum
187. Devin Harris
188. Marcus Thornton
189. Brandan Wright
190. Lou Williams

Comments: Jack was a strong pick here. He’ll have decent deep league value as a backup, and immediately becomes a starting caliber standard league option if/when Deron Williams gets hurt. … Porter finishes the preseason averaging 13.0 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 1.6 apg, 1.6 spg and 1.0 3s. It’ll get crowded once Bradley Beal is back, but I’m hoping Porter can play well enough in the meantime to earn 25-plus minutes after Beal returns.

191. Wilson Chandler
192. Brandon Bass
193. Patrick Patterson
194. Boris Diaw
195. Hollis Thompson (Bruski)
196. James Johnson
197. D.J. Augustin
198. Kendall Marshall
199. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
200. Evan Fournier (Raducanu)

Comments: Chandler quietly buried a career-best 2.0 3s last year, and could go on a nice run early with Danilo Gallinari (knee) still limited. … I almost took Kidd-Gilchrist ahead of Porter, and may end up wishing I had. I wouldn’t call Kidd-Gilchrist a must-draft player in 10- or 12-team leagues right now, but he’s worth watching after a decent run this preseason (10.4 ppg, 6.7 rpg, 1.4 spg and 1.1 bpg through seven games).

My Complete Roster (8 starters, 4 bench)

PGChris Paul (No. 5 pick) – Only concern is injuries: Has averaged 64 games the last three years.
SGAvery Bradley (No. 125) – I don’t think 1.5 3s / 1.5 steals is out of the question.
SFHarrison Barnes (No. 176) – 11 and 5 is the modest goal.
PFAmir Johnson (No. 116) –So steady I have nothing new to say about him here.
CMarcin Gortat (No. 65) – Has every chance to repeat last year’s 13.2 ppg, 9.5 rpg, 1.5 bpg.
GJrue Holiday (No. 56) – Could start slowly, but I expect him to be dynamic before long.
FOtto Porter (No. 185) – Hoping he’ll still be useful after Beal comes back.
UtilShelvin Mack (No. 245) – Starting at least one backup in this league is pretty much inevitable. Mack averaged 7.5 ppg, 3.7 apg, 0.7 spg and 0.8 3s last year.

BNKent Bazemore (No. 236) – If Kyle Korver or DeMarre Carroll gets hurt, he could be interesting.
BNDeJuan Blair (No. 296) – Could get decent run for Wiz if/when Nene gets injured.
BNJimmer Fredette (No. 305) – I would have already dropped him if there was anyone on waivers.
BNGlen Rice Jr. (No. 175) – Added him off waivers as Otto Porter insurance (and yes, "Otto Porter insurance" is pretty much all you need to know about just how deep this league is).

Matt Stroup

Matt Stroup has covered basketball for NBC Sports Edge since 2008. You can find him on Twitter here .