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De'Aaron Fox
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Roundball Stew

Stew: New Top-150, Part 2

by Matt Stroup
Updated On: December 14, 2018, 1:29 pm ET

 

When you google the phrase “I’ll be back”, the first major wave of results all point toward The Terminator (1984), and understandably so.

The slightly lesser-known usage of that line — also by Arnold Schwarzenegger, in an entirely different universe — took place in 1987’s The Running Man.

Arnold, playing a convict who has been framed and is now stuck in a savage, brutal, futuristic game show, is about to be launched off in a pod to go do battle with the gladiators trying to take him out.

(In case you can’t tell, I love almost everything about this movie.)

Anyhow, right before he launches onto the course, Arnold turns to the game show’s host, Damon Killian (played by the late Richard Dawson).

“Killian,” he says. “I’ll be back.”

Killian looks at him in disbelief for a moment, before uttering this genius reply:

Only in a rerun.

I bring this up because A) Let’s be honest — I was hit with a random wave of nostalgia and just wanted to talk about this movie for a second, and B) I did in fact end last week’s edition of Roundball Stew by saying “I’ll be back” — with Part 2 of my updated top-150. Which is where we are now.

If you missed Part 1 (picks 1-50), you can check it out right here. Now it’s time for picks 51-150 — with a general slant toward 9-category leagues (and note — there are now three numbers next to each player: Yahoo ADP, followed by season-long Basketball Monster 9-category ranking, followed by their ranking the last 30 days).

Now, without further ado, it’s time to start running:

51. Ben Simmons (Yahoo ADP: 14.6 / 9-category ranking: 52nd / Last 30 days: 46th)
52. Myles Turner (44.0 / 55th / 26th)
53. De’Aaron Fox (119.6 / 61st / 57th)
54. Andre Drummond (23.4 / 47th / 70th)
55. Serge Ibaka (82.9 / 38th / 36th)
56. DeAndre Jordan (53.4 / 65th / 110th)
57. Bogdan Bogdanovic (121.8 / 79th / 53rd)
58. Jeremy Lamb (142.4 / 45th / 38th)
59. Jusuf Nurkic (89.6 / 54th / 41st)
60. JaVale McGee (108.7 / 39th / 82nd)

Comments: Here we see some of the absolute best values from fantasy drafts (Fox, Ibaka, McGee, Bogdanovic, Lamb and even Nurkic), as well as some of the worst. And let’s be honest — Ben Simmons as a second-round pick just hasn’t paid off. I didn’t really get it at the time, and I still don’t get why you’d sign up at the top of your draft for a player who is a complete zero or worse in 3s (0.0), FT percentage (58.3) and turnovers (3.5). I appreciate the player in real life, and to some extent in fantasy, but taking him early just seems like a tough path to victory. If you have managed to build a winning roster with Simmons, I’d be curious to hear who’s on it — and would guess Drummond is there in a lot of cases.

One thing I should point out here is that if I started over this top-150 today, some of these guys would climb higher on the list. That’s just the nature of doing this during the season over the course of two weeks. Hot streaks (or cold streaks) can change values quickly, and that’s certainly true for Myles Turner, who has now posted 16.7 ppg, 10.2 rpg, 2.3 apg, 3.5 bpg and 1.3 triples over his last six games. If I were the Pacers, I’d treat Turner like he’s got a no-hitter going. No one say a word to him.

Now a few quick words on a couple of Kings: De’Aaron Fox is showing no signs of slowing down after his hot start, putting up 17.4 ppg, 7.6 apg, 1.7 spg, 0.6 bpg and 1.5 3s over his last 15 games. As for Bogdan Bogdanovic, it took him a minute to get rolling in his first few games coming back from knee surgery, but he has now averaged 17.0 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 4.2 apg, 1.0 spg and 2.2 3s over his last 10. His 9-category ranking during that stretch? No. 44 overall. It’s strange to say, but the Kings are actually fun again.

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61. C.J. McCollum (31.1 / 58th / 47th)
62. LaMarcus Aldridge (35.0 / 70th / 56th)
63. Steven Adams (71.5 / 57th / 62nd)
64. John Collins (51.0 / 74th / 72nd)
65. Buddy Hield (93.0 / 69th / 63rd)
66. Brook Lopez (83.3 / 64th / 116th)
67. Hassan Whiteside (70.2 / 63rd / 126th)
68. Draymond Green (31.3 / 76th / N/A)
69. Devin Booker (26.3 / 60th / 51st)
70. Rudy Gay (138.4 / 48th / 35th)

Questions: Why is C.J. McCollum this low? One big issue for me is that his assists and steals have been steadily trending in the wrong direction for a few years now, from a high of 4.3 apg and 1.2 spg in 2015-16 to 2.5 apg and 0.8 spg so far this year.

What happened to John Collins getting defensive stats? (He has averaged a paltry 0.1 spg and 0.6 bpg in 12 games so far this year.) It may have something to do with the large-scale tank job that’s underway in ATL, but he really doesn’t look like he’s trying to guard anyone, ever. The good news is during his recent monster run (23.8 ppg, 13.0 rpg and 1.0 3s his last five games), Collins has added in 0.8 bpg. So there’s hope.

But how did Draymond Green plummet this far? For one, his scoring has completely fallen off this year — down from 11.0 ppg last year to 6.6 ppg in his 15 games. Actually, that’s really it. The rest of his numbers are right there, and maybe he gets things going once his outside shot starts falling (he’s 7-of-34 on 3s so far this year). In theory he’s a good buy-low consideration. My concern though is he has trouble staying on the court, and may not be quite as productive as he once was. Bad combo.

Lastly: Rudy Gay? 70th? Yes. Over his last 15 games, he’s at 14.3 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 2.4 apg, 0.9 spg, 0.7 bpg and 1.3 3s — numbers that put him 38th overall on the 9-category leaderboard during that run. And at the moment, he’s trending upward: His last five games, Gay has posted 19.6 ppg, 7.6 rpg, 2.2 apg, 1.8 spg, 0.8 bpg and 1.2 3s. If anything, No. 70 overall is too low.

71. Domantas Sabonis (130.5 / 77th / 80th)
72. Jarrett Allen (52.8 / 80th / 92nd)
73. D’Angelo Russell (88.5 / 83rd / 83rd)
74. Kyle Kuzma (74.5 / 68th / 55th)
75. Derrick Rose (129.0 / 66th / 58th)
76. Luka Doncic (72.9 / 90th / 88th)
77. Montrezl Harrell (139.8 / 86th / 142nd)
78. Enes Kanter (79.1 / 71st / 67th)
79. Tim Hardaway Jr. (74.8 / 72nd / 91st)
80. Julius Randle (71.1 / 85th / 73rd)

One-Sentence Statements: My hunch is that Jarrett Allen fantasy owners expected more than this, but there are worse disappointments than 12.2 ppg, 8.4 rpg and 1.4 bpg. … A resurgent Derrick Rose is showing no hint of losing steam, averaging 18.3 ppg, 4.4 apg, 0.7 spg and 1.5 3s (on 51.6 percent from the field and 88.9 from the line with just 1.7 turnovers) his last 15 games. … D’Angelo Russell is once again having issues with poor shooting and turnovers, averaging 18.8 ppg, 6.8 apg, 1.3 spg and 2.2 3s on 41.5 percent from the field and 71.4 from the line with 3.7 TOs his last 10 games. … I still have faith in Harrell and see him as a good buy-low despite a recent slump (7.8 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 1.2 bpg his last five games). … Doncic is shooting 36.9 percent from the field the last month. … I certainly could have ranked Kyle Kuzma a bit higher. He has hit double-digit points in 10 straight games, averaging 21.7 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 3.8 apg, 0.7 spg and 2.3 3s over that stretch. … Julius Randle has shown a flagrant disregard for defensive stats and opposing defenses, averaging 26.7 ppg, 11.3 rpg, 3.3 apg, 0.3 spg, 0.5 bpg and 1.0 3s his last six starts. As long as he sticks in the starting five, he should be a monster.

81. Kent Bazemore (131.4 / 73rd / 96th)
82. Joe Ingles (59.4 / 81st / 95th)
83. Ricky Rubio (59.1 / 119th / 98th)
84. Jamal Murray (43.0 / 94th / 120th)
85. Jeff Teague (66.5 / 100th / 112th)
86. Gordon Hayward (53.5 / 96th / 44th)
87. Kris Dunn (82.0 / 349th / 270th — three games played all season)
88. Trevor Ariza (111.9 / 82nd / 48th)
89. Andrew Wiggins (84.3 / 118th / 178th)
90. Will Barton (57.9 / 17 / N/A — two games played all season)

One Liners, Cont’d.: Kent Bazemore’s last three games (all of them starts in the absence of Taurean Prince): 17.0 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 5.0 apg, 3.0 spg, 1.0 bpg and 2.3 3s. … I’m projecting ahead for Ricky Rubio and Jeff Teague, both of whom have the track record and setup for a better second half. … I also think Jamal Murray is a good buy-low. He has improved his points (16.7 —> 17.4) and assists (3.4 —> 4.9) while simply shooting worse than last year (41.8 percent from the field and 30.5 on 3s). If his shots start falling more consistently, he’s set up to go on a run. … Gordon Hayward, the so-called “jack of all trades” for the Celtics, has averaged 11.7 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 4.5 apg, 1.5 spg and 1.3 3s his last 11 active games. … I really like Dunn as a fantasy option, though it might take him a little while to get going after missing so much time. … After an ugly slump, it appears that “Good Wiggins” is back, with averages of 20.7 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 0.8 spg, 0.8 bpg and 2.0 3s (on 51.1 percent from the field) his last six games. … We still don’t know when Barton (hip) will be back.

91. Spencer Dinwiddie (137.7 / 105th / 99th)
92. Harrison Barnes (79.5 / 125th / 101st)
93. Kelly Oubre (142.9 / 115th / 81st)
94. Juancho Hernangomez (N/A / 121st / 64th)
95. Dennis Schroder (127.9 / 99th / 77th)
96. J.J. Redick (86.9 / 98th / 94th)
97. Larry Nance Jr. (N/A / 95th / 54th)
98. Wendell Carter Jr. (90.9 / 108th / 168th)
99. Danny Green (134.8 / 92nd / 117th)
100. Gary Harris (48.5 / 78th / 78th)

In Brief: Dinwiddie’s last 15: 19.7 ppg, 5.7 apg, 0.7 spg, 1.9 3s and one contract extension. … Kelly Oubre is on quite a heater, with 19.2 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 1.6 spg, 1.0 bpg and 2.2 3s (on 53.2 percent from the field) his last five games. … Hernangomez, last 13 games: 13.3 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 0.6 spg, 0.6 bpg and 2.1 3s.

101. Kevin Love (32.5 / 114th / N/A — four games played all season)
102. Thaddeus Young (107.9 / 120th / 65th)
103. Darren Collison (79.9 / 109th / 60th)
104. Bojan Bogdanovic (136.7 / 93rd / 66th)
105. Jonathan Isaac (98.6 / 141st / 130th)
106. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (141.4 / 138th / 145th)
107. Derrick Favors (135.8 / 88th / 90th)
108. Dewayne Dedmon (107.6 / 101st / 87th)
109. Marcus Morris (134.6 / 84th / 86th)
110. Reggie Jackson (132.1 / 135th / 79th)

Not as Brief as I'd Hoped: Love is a lottery ticket with serious second-half upside in my opinion. … Thaddeus is in the midst of an impressive run, averaging 18.3 ppg, 9.8 rpg, 3.0 apg, 1.8 spg, 0.8 bpg and 1.5 3s his last four games. … Jonathan Isaac and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander haven’t quite earned these spots with their numbers, but both have plenty of upside to improve in the second half. As for Isaac, he is slowly starting to look like the player we hoped he could be. His last eight games include 9.5 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 1.1 spg, 1.4 bpg and 0.9 3s. SGA is fighting through inconsistency, but has still put up 11.3 ppg, 1.2 spg, 0.7 bpg and 0.7 3s his last 10 games. … After some early struggles shooting (37.6 percent his first 17 games), Reggie Jackson has shot 43.1 percent his last nine, averaging 14.6 ppg, 4.3 apg, 1.1 spg and 2.2 3s.

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