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Saves and Steals

Cishek Shuffle

by Brad Johnson
Updated On: October 4, 2018, 4:04 pm ET

Before we dive into our regularly scheduled programming, let's revisit the tiers I described last week. Continued excellence from the tiny “Almost Elite” group has convinced me to promote them both to Elite status. The result is that we're down to five tiers – at least for now. There is no reason that tiers should remain static in size or number. We'll use as many or as few as is necessary.

 

A couple potentially elite closers are scheduled to return this weekend. Kenley Jansen will rejoin an elite Dodgers bullpen. He won't immediately resume ninth inning duties per reports. It's clear that Yimi Garcia hasn't stolen his job. The club will want to see a couple clean frames before returning to business as usual.

 

Jake McGee's path to the ninth inning is murkier. Even if he never landed on the disabled list, there was a case to be made that Brad Boxberger was the better pick for the ninth inning. His early season performance has only increased that perception. It may take an injury or slump from Boxberger for McGee to return to closing duties. That said, don't sell short just yet. The Rays like to manipulate arbitration pay days. Whoever closes for Tampa will quickly become expensive. That could influence their bullpen decisions.

 

Of course, the biggest news of the day comes to us from Miami. The Marlins have ousted Steve Cishek from the ninth inning after yet another meltdown. It's presumed that A.J. Ramos will serve as the ninth inning man. Pause in your reading and run to the wire now. Other names to watch include Bryan Morris, Mike Dunn, and free agent Rafael Soriano.

 

Collectively, players have stolen bases at a 70.5 percent success rate. It's the second week in a row at that rate and the first week without a decline. A total of 558 bases have been taken in 791 attempts. You'll find the usual suspects atop the leaderboard. Billy Hamilton (17) has a five steal lead on Dee Gordon (12). Five others are in double digit territory. Gordon has been caught seven times. For what it's worth, Bryce Harper has tried to snag a trio of bases, but he's 0-for-3.

 

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Tier 1: Elite (5)

 

Aroldis Chapman, Cincinnati Reds

Greg Holland, Kansas City Royals

David Robertson, Chicago White Sox

Andrew Miller, New York Yankees

Craig Kimbrel, San Diego Padres

 

It was an inauspicious week for Chapman. He's appeared in each of the last three games. He took the loss in the first two while allowing three hits in both outings. He picked up the win last night. He also snagged a save a week ago. His fastball has averaged over 100 mph in each of his last five appearances. Don't worry about him and his 1.17 ERA.

 

Holland pitched four times in his return to action. He's looked a little rough around the edges, especially on Sunday when he allowed a hit and three walks. He recorded two saves and a two inning, blown save vulture win. If he runs into problems with hits or walks, we could see Wade Davis return to the ninth inning. Hang onto Davis for now, but don't expect any imminent changes.

 

Robertson allowed his first earned run of the season on Sunday in a blown save to the Reds. Then Chapman turned around and returned the favor. Robertson only has six saves on the season. However, he's compiled 25 strikeouts, nine hits, and one walk allowed in 14 innings. He recorded two saves and a win in three appearances this week.

 

Miller has yet to allow a run on the season. Actually, he's only allowed three hits in 15.2 innings. The only blemish is a high walk rate (4.60 BB/9), but that's offset by an elite 14.94 K/9. Meanwhile, Dellin Betances has continued to keep pace. He's allowed a couple runs, but they were both unearned. He has eight hits, nine walks, and 31 strikeouts in 20 innings.

 

After blowing his most recent save attempt, the word on the street is that Kimbrel's command is shaky. Jeff Sullivan of FanGraphs explored the notion. He noted that Kimbrel had a similar rocky patch in 2013. Then he went and allowed a sub-.500 OPS over the rest of the season. Kimbrel may have an uncharacteristic 5.68 ERA, but now is not the time to panic. In fact, I'm going to take a short break from writing this column to send out some offers.

 

Tier 2: The Upside Crowd (5)

 

Brad Boxberger, Tampa Bay Rays

Zach Britton, Baltimore Orioles

Hector Rondon, Chicago Cubs

Trevor Rosenthal, St. Louis Cardinals

Jeurys Familia, New York Mets

 

As we discussed in the intro, the return of McGee complicates things in Tampa. Here I have Boxberger listed as the sixth best relief asset. If McGee is closing games in a couple weeks, this will look pretty silly. Now is not a great time to buy shares of Boxberger unless they come at a sizable discount. As far as performance, he nabbed three saves in the last week.

 

Britton continues to post a robust 12.46 K/9. The strikeouts were the only thing missing from his profile last season. He's continued his worm burning ways. He rolled grounders on 75 percent of balls in play last season. In the small sample of 2015, he has a 77.4 percent ground ball rate. The combination of weak contact and strikeouts hints at elite upside.

 

Rondon came in with a four run lead on Friday. He proceeded to allow a three run home run to Ryan Braun before finishing off the Brewers. He picked up a couple more low stress saves during the week. His performance has been decent, but his whiff rate is down slightly from last year and his walk rate is up. He's starting to look a little more like a mid-tier guy.

 

Familia picked up two more easy saves. He's up to 13 saves and a hold on the season. He's locked down 20 strikeouts against three walks in 17 innings. Any thought of re-installing Bobby Parnell in the ninth inning should be forgotten.

 

After last week's column, a reader asked why Familia wasn't ranked ahead of pitchers like Cody Allen. The short answer was track record. Prior to this season, Familia was a mid-3's ERA guy. This year, he's cut the walk rate and buffed his whiff rate all while continuing to induce grounders. I'm ready to start believing in some of those gains. He'll need more than 17 innings of excellence before any further promotions.

 

Tier 3: The Mid-Tier (10)

 

Jason Grilli, Atlanta Braves

Glen Perkins, Minnesota Twins

Joakim Soria Detroit Tigers

Huston Street, Los Angeles Angels

Jonathan Papelbon, Philadelphia Phillies

Koji Uehara, Boston Red Sox

Drew Storen, Washington Nationals

Fernando Rodney, Seattle Mariners

Luke Gregerson, Houston Astros

Francisco Rodriguez, Milwaukee Brewers

 

Grilli has been battling back spasms and could cede the ninth inning to Jim Johnson. Such a demotion would be temporary, but it's worth picking Johnson up off waivers if he happens to be available. Grilli appeared yesterday and allowed one run and two hits in 0.1 innings. He took the loss.

 

There's little to report regarding Perkins, Soria, and Papelbon. All three relievers appeared at least twice in the last week without any drama. The same can't be said of Street. He blew saves last Wednesday and Thursday. He coughed up four runs in the process. He has since rebounded with a couple one-two-three saves.

 

Uehara appeared on consecutive days for the first time since his April 25th blown save. He recorded two outs without any nonsense. I continue to be wary about using him on back-to-back days. Fastball velocity doesn't matter too much for the splitter ball pitcher, but it was at a season low in that second outing.

 

We discussed the perception that Storen more closely resembles a setup or middle reliever than a closer.

Clearly, Storen isn't listening. He earned two saves and a win. His 1.29 ERA, nine saves, and 9.00 K/9 mark him as one of the top relief performers. Projections for future numbers are less sanguine.

 

Rodney allowed a solo home run for the second week in a row. Such things happen. As long as he isn't dishing out too many walks, I'm not worried about his job security or fantasy numbers.

 

I've promoted Rodriguez to this tier because he hasn't allowed a home run in over a month. The changeup artist has struggled with the long ball since joining the Brewers. However, a 11.08 K/9 and 1.38 BB/9 mark him as a valuable asset when the ball stays in the park. With the Brewers falling out of contention, don't be surprised to see him join a team like the Tigers, Blue Jays, or Marlins before long.

 

Tier 4: Questions (6)

 

Cody Allen, Cleveland Indians

Mark Melancon, Pittsburgh Pirates

Neftali Feliz, Texas Rangers

Santiago Casilla, San Francisco Giants

Addison Reed, Arizona Diamondbacks

Tyler Clippard, Oakland Athletics

 

Allen's stuff remains borderline elite, but the results aren't there. The Indians may want to consider getting him into more low leverage situations so he can get back on track. The biggest controllable issue is a 7.36 BB/9. Combined with a ridiculous .484 BABIP, it's no wonder that he still has a 9.00 ERA.

 

Melancon continues to close for the Pirates. To borrow a lyric from somebody, he's half the man he used to be. He picked up three saves in four appearances while allowing just one run on a solo homer. The bigger issue is the decline in stuff. Continue to monitor Tony Watson and Arquimedes Caminero. The current iteration of Melancon will lose the job at some point.

 

Feliz allowed a run in his most recent appearance, but that's not our primary concern with him. His velocity has ticked up in the three outings prior to last night (cleaned data not yet posted). Even if he hits 96 on the gun, he'll remain an inconsistent performer.

 

It took an entire month, but Reed earned his second save on Sunday. He's allowed 12 hits and three walks in nine innings. Brad Ziegler and Evan Marshall could step in if the Diamondbacks ever start playing well.

 

Tier 5: Roller Coasters (4)

 

Yimi Garcia, Chris Hatcher, Los Angeles Dodgers

A.J. Ramos, Bryan Morris, Miami Marlins

John Axford, Rafael Betancourt, Colorado Rockies

Brett Cecil, Toronto Blue Jays

 

Hatcher earned a one out hold on Monday before Garcia chipped in a blown save. For as well as the Dodgers bullpen has done as a unit, they've had trouble settling on a ninth inning guy in Jansen's absence. While team personnel are saying Jansen will be eased back into the ninth inning, expect it to be a rushed easing.

 

Ramos has pitched well this season with a 1.06 ERA, 11/12 K/9, and 3.18 BB/9 in 17 innings. He's the odds on favorite to land the closer gig in place of Cishek. Morris was ahead of Ramos on the depth chart last season, but he's struggled with command this year.

 

Neither the Rockies nor Blue Jays had a save opportunity in the last week. Presumably, the respective pecking orders remain unchanged.

 

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Injured

 

Jenrry Mejia, New York Mets

Kenley Jansen, Los Angeles Dodgers

Sean Doolittle, Oakland Athletics

Jake McGee, Tampa Bay Rays

Bobby Parnell, New York Mets

Joe Nathan, Detroit Tigers

Adam Ottavino, Colorado Rockies

 

Jansen and McGee will return this weekend. Doolittle begins his rehab assignment tomorrow.

 

The Deposed

 

Chad Qualls

Joaquin Benoit

LaTroy Hawkins

Miguel Castro

Steve Cishek

 

A decline in velocity and a dreadful performance led to Cishek's demotion. He has a 10.32 ERA with 10.32 K/9, and 6.35 BB/9. His velocity is down over two mph from his career norm. In short, he looks like a guy with an undiagnosed injury.

 

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The Steals Department

 

Let's use FanGraphs' Steamer projection system to pick a few stolen base stars. Among the usual suspects is Ben Revere. He has just six steals on the season to go with a .252/.296/.354 line. There is a very real chance that his owner is fed up with tepid production. A low ball offer – perhaps a player like Ike Davis – could get the job done. Revere is capable of three category production batting first or second for the Phillies. Beware, he's a trade candidate. Many teams view him as an ideal fourth outfielder.

 

Leonys Martin is another underperformer with six steals. The Rangers are likely to start hitting him at the bottom of the lineup. His .209/.246/.278 slash is bad enough that he's landing on the waiver wire. A part timer like Justin Turner could be sufficient trade bait. Martin is projected to hit around .260/.310/.380 over the remainder of the season with a handful of home runs and over 20 stolen bases.

 

If you're in a daily moves league, Rajai Davis is always an option. The 34-year-old continues to run wild when he plays, and he's a stud against left-handed pitching. He won't play as much as Revere or Martin, but he'll easily outperform them on a rate basis.

 

If you're looking for a higher impact talent, try buying low on Carlos Gomez. The five category monster is off to a tepid .250/.261/.441 start. You could point to his terrible plate discipline when attempting to acquire him. He has just one walk against 12 strikeouts in 69 plate appearances. He's swinging at way too many pitches outside of the strike zone. If you do acquire him, be ready to weather a slump. Don't worry, so long as he stays healthy, he'll return to form.

Brad Johnson

You can read more from Brad Johnson on NBC Sports Edge, FanGraphs, and RotoFanatic. Find him on Patreon and Twitter @BaseballATeam.