Throughout the 2019 season, we looked at NASCAR Statistical Services’ Driver Rating as one of the measures of a driver’s strength. While no system is perfect, this complex formula looks at various strength-based categories during a race and tries to determine who was strongest.
Primary statistics (Finishing Position, Average Running Position, Average Speed in Traffic, and Fastest Laps) are supported by fixed bonuses for winning, finishing in the top 15, leading the most laps, and finishing on the lead lap. There are some other factors, but those are the highlights and the overall effect is to determine who was strong each week – regardless of finishing position.
All of those factors added together provide a perfect ranking of 150. Occasionally the top ranking driver does not win, but it is impossible to earn a perfect rating without the victory.
More importantly, the Driver Rating removes the peaks and valleys that might be experienced during a race – such as drivers who run out of fuel on the last lap or are involved in a late-race accident.
In 2019, two drivers earned perfect ratings. Brad Keselowski was the first to do so in the spring Martinsville STP 500. While stage wins do not factor into the rating, it is nevertheless notable that he won both of those in route to his overall win. Leading those critical laps were just the tip of the iceberg as he logged 446 circuits at the head of the field, easily outpacing Chase Elliott’s 49.
That was Keselowski’s best rating by a wide margin, but it is notable that his next two best Driver Ratings also came on short, flat tracks when he logged a 117.0 at New Hampshire and a 116.6 in Richmond 2.
When we look at a driver’s record on a track type, Driver Rating plays a critical role. Keselowski’s effort at New Hampshire resulted in a 10th-place finish, but he ran well enough throughout the race to finish in the top five if he had not lost track position late.
Kevin Harvick was the other driver with a perfect rating in 2019. His effort came in the Brickyard 400 when he led 118 of 160 laps in route to victory. This race turned out to be critical in what was to become a pivotal moment in his season. The confidence instilled in Harvick is detailed at greater length in this season’s profile as he went on to earn the top Driver Rating three more times before the end of the year.
One of these top performances came at Texas 2 when he recorded a rating of 136.3 in Race 2 of the Round of 8. That was part of a five-race streak of top-10 performances that closed out the season. More importantly, it locked him into the Championship 4.
|
25 Best Driver |
||
|
Driver |
Driver Rating |
Race |
|
150.0 |
STP 500 |
|
|
150.0 |
Brickyard 400 |
|
|
149.7 |
Go Bowling at the Glen |
|
|
149.7 |
TicketGuardian 500k |
|
|
149.7 |
First Data 500 |
|
|
148.7 |
Toyota 350k |
|
|
148.5 |
Auto Club 400 |
|
|
147.6 |
Pocono 400 |
|
|
147.3 |
Bluegreen Vacations 500k |
|
|
143.7 |
Firekeepers Casino 400 |
|
|
140.0 |
Hollywood Casino 400 |
|
|
139.2 |
BoA Roval 400k |
|
|
138.9 |
Toyota Owners 400 |
|
|
138.7 |
Ford 400 |
|
|
137.2 |
Coke 600 |
|
|
137.2 |
Federated 400 |
|
|
136.3 |
AAA Texas 500 |
|
|
134.7 |
Quaker State 400 |
|
|
134.4 |
Pennzoil 400 |
|
|
133.6 |
Drydene 400 |
|
|
133.5 |
Gander 400 |
|
|
132.4 |
Federated 400 |
|
|
132.3 |
Food City 500 |
|
|
132.2 |
AAA Texas 500 |
|
|
131.5 |
Pennzoil 400 |
Three other drivers came close to achieving perfect ratings. Chase Elliott, Kyle Busch, and Martin Truex Jr. each logged a 149.7 in winning efforts.
Notably, Truex’s near-perfect effort came in Martinsville 2, leading credence to the fact that this course type is a rhythm track. Truex has five notations in the chart above with efforts that were among the 25-best in the season. His performance on short, flat tracks was underscored by dominant wins in both Richmond races, his Sonoma win, and a victory in the Coke 600.
Elliott’s Watkins Glen victory was another near-perfect effort.
Coupled with a 139.2 at the Charlotte Roval, it shows just how strong Elliott is on road courses. More importantly, Elliott’s Driver Rating at Sonoma shows how important this statistic can be. Despite developing a mechanical issue on that twisty track, Elliott had the seventh-best rating of 95, which is much more predictive of how he will run in 2020 than his 37th-place finish.
Busch’s 149.7 at Phoenix 1 and his 148.5 at Auto Club the next week served as an early indication that he would be strong throughout the season. That proved to be true and he ended the year with a 138.7 in the Ford 400 – easily outpacing the field in route to his 2019 championship.
NASCAR Stats adds up the Driver Rating and provide a season-to-date ranking. It comes as little surprise that Busch, Harvick, and Truex all landed in the top three, but the fourth-best driver in this regard was not the other member of the Championship 4.
Joey Logano narrowly edged Denny Hamlin with a 98.4 to 98.0.
Each race is an entity of its own – and the final slot in the championship race came down to Race 3 of Round 3. Once again, the Driver Rating tells a story. With the ninth-best rating of the season, Hamlin posted a 147.3 in the Bluegreen Vacations 500k; more importantly, he won. Logano’s 112.2 was significantly less than Hamlin’s mark, but it was the third-best of the race behind Hamlin and second-place finisher Busch’s 126.5.
The Driver Rating reveals who is strong, but it also shows that parity among the top 10 drivers is not necessarily complete. The falloff in the season rating between third-place Truex and fourth-place Logano is significant and suggest their dominance.
Will these drivers continue to be the Big 3 in 2020? Only time will tell.
|
Season Driver Rating |
|||
|
Rank |
Driver |
Driver Rating |
Avg. Fin |
|
1. |
108.4 |
8.94 |
|
|
2. |
105.2 |
10.03 |
|
|
3. |
103.4 |
9.75 |
|
|
4. |
98.4 |
10.75 |
|
|
5. |
98.0 |
9.47 |
|
|
6. |
94.8 |
12.86 |
|
|
7. |
93.8 |
13.72 |
|
|
8. |
92.2 |
15.14 |
|
|
9. |
90.4 |
15.06 |
|
|
10. |
87.9 |
13.11 |
|
|
11. |
86.6 |
15.17 |
|
|
12. |
85.1 |
16.25 |
|
|
13. |
85.0 |
14.86 |
|
|
14. |
83.3 |
15.42 |
|
|
15. |
82.0 |
14.36 |
|
|
16. |
79.7 |
16.39 |
|
|
17. |
78.7 |
17.36 |
|
|
18. |
71.7 |
14.56 |
|
|
19. |
70.4 |
16.60 |
|
|
20. |
70.1 |
20.47 |
|
|
21. |
70.0 |
19.47 |
|
|
22. |
69.9 |
18.31 |
|
|
23. |
67.4 |
17.83 |
|
|
24. |
62.1 |
22.50 |
|
|
25. |
57.2 |
20.56 |
|
|
26. |
54.6 |
23.06 |
|
|
27. |
53.6 |
23.94 |
|
|
28. |
53.1 |
24.17 |
|
|
29. |
52.2 |
26.30 |
|
|
30. |
45.0 |
26.00 |
|
|
31. |
44.6 |
25.92 |
|
|
32. |
38.8 |
28.20 |
|
|
33. |
38.2 |
26.03 |
Related Articles:
Running at the End
Average Running Position
Segment Points
Place-differential Points
Strong Starters