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Statistically Speaking

Hollywood Casino 400 Stats

by Dan Beaver
Updated On: October 4, 2018, 4:04 pm ET

This week’s race: Hollywood Casino 400
Traditional Name: None
Other Notable Names: Protection One 400, Banquet 400, Price Chopper 400

Smack dab in the center of the Midwest, Kansas is an important market for NASCAR, so they added a second race to the schedule in 2011. Since then Jimmie Johnson has scored top-10s in 82 percent of his starts with Matt Kenseth doing so in 73 percent.

Kevin Harvick has batted only .545, but he makes up for that with top-15s in 91 percent—and with a pair of second-place finishes, he has been more successful recently. Kenseth has been the dominator since Kansas expanded to two races, however with top-15s in every event.

The two races on this track are close to one another on the schedule, but the tone of each race is distinctly different. Kansas has been part of the Chase schedule since its inception, which makes it a pivotal race. Three of the first four attempts there were awarded to non-playoff drivers—including Joe Nemechek in 2004. Since 2008, the trophy has always gone to a Chaser.

Joey Logano won last year’s edition of this race.

10 best drivers at Kansas

Over the past six races, these drivers have the best average finish on this track.

1. Kevin Harvick
Last six races average finish at Charlotte: 5.83
Career avg. finish: 10.9 in 21 attempts

Harvick might even be stronger overall than his six-race average suggests. He won the fall 2013 edition of this race and finished second in three of the next five. Last year, he earned a penalty in the Hollywood Casino 400 that contributed to a 16th-place finish. He cannot afford another mistake this week if he wants to have any comfort at Talladega SuperSpeedway.

2. Joey Logano
Last six races average finish at Charlotte: 8.83
Career avg. finish: 18.7 in 14 attempts

Logano would have the top spot this week if not for an accident in the May GoBowling.com 400. He had a five-race, top-five streak to his credit that included two wins. His 38th-place finish will hurt his average for some while but it does not hurt his handicap.

3. Carl Edwards
Last six races average finish at Charlotte: 9.17
Career avg. finish: 10.6 in 18 attempts

Edwards has been strong since he began competing at Kansas. This is his hometown track and he always wants to impress the locals. He has done so to the tune of 12 top-10s in 18 starts plus three other results of 17th or better. Still, Edwards has not yet won and his best result was a second from 34th in 2008.

4. Matt Kenseth
Last six races average finish at Charlotte: 9.67
Career avg. finish: 13.3 in 21 attempts

Kenseth apparently needed the repetition of two races at Kansas because he was not particularly strong before 2011. In his first 10 starts, he finished outside the top 30 four times and 23rd on another occasion. Since then, he has been perfect in regard to top-15s.

5. Kyle Busch
Last six races average finish at Charlotte: 11.60 (5 starts)
Career avg. finish: 19.2 in 17 attempts

If NASCAR is about what a driver has done lately—and it is—Busch should be rated much higher than fifth. He won this spring and swept the top five last year. He finished 15th in fall 2014, so as soon as a 30-soething result from 2013 ages out of his record, Busch is going to rocket up the rankings.

6. Jimmie Johnson
Last six races average finish at Charlotte: 12.67
Career avg. finish: 9.1 in 20 attempts

A 40th in 2014 and a 32nd in 2004 because of crash damage is really the only time Johnson has every truly finished badly at Kansas. Johnson has been great on this track. He once scored 11 straight top-10s on this course, which included two wins. He had another in 2015 and should be considered an odds-on favorite to challenge this week.

7. Kasey Kahne
Last six races average finish at Charlotte: 12.83
Career avg. finish: 13.6 in 18 attempts

Kahne has momentum at the right time. He has finished in the top 15 in his last nine oval track races and has top-10s in five of his last six. That couples with a generally strong Kansas record and makes him this week’s top dark horse.

8. Ryan Blaney
Last six races average finish at Charlotte: 13.00 (3 starts)
Career avg. finish: 13.0 in 3 attempts

It is great to see Blaney at the top of the charts this week. The rookie has played second fiddle to Elliott most of the season, but on several occasions they have been neck-and-neck. This May at Kansas was one such occasion and Blaney’s top-five was the better result of the two. He also had a top-10 last fall, which gives him a current, two-race streak of top-10s.

9. Ryan Newman
Last six races average finish at Charlotte: 13.33
Career avg. finish: 16.8 in 21 attempts

When we keep saying Newman is the king of consistency, these are the kind of results to which we are alluding. He has finished 11th or better in his last five starts and if not for an accident in fall 2013, he would be among the top five this week.

10. Martin Truex Jr.
Last six races average finish at Charlotte: 13.67
Career avg. finish: 17.1 in 16 attempts

Truex is another consistent driver at Kansas. He enters the weekend with a current four-race, top-15 streak. Only one of these was a top-five, but if one looks a little further back, he had three straight top-fives including back-to-back second-place results. Truex is more than capable of scoring his first top-five and maybe even challenging for the win.

21. Denny Hamlin
Last six races average finish at Charlotte: 21.33
Career avg. finish: 16.8 in 16 attempts

Hamlin has the distinction of being the Chaser with the lowest three-year average finish this week. Mostly this is because he suffered accident in the past two May contests, but his last two fall efforts ended in the top 10 during the playoffs. 

 

Rank

Driver

3 Yr. Avg. Finish

Attempts

1.

Kevin Harvick

5.83

6

2.

Joey Logano

8.83

6

3.

Carl Edwards

9.17

6

4.

Matt Kenseth

9.67

6

5.

Kyle Busch

11.60

5

6.

Jimmie Johnson

12.67

6

7.

Kasey Kahne

12.83

6

8.

Ryan Blaney

13.00

3

9.

Ryan Newman

13.33

6

10.

Martin Truex Jr.

13.67

6

 

 

 

 

11.

Kurt Busch

15.00

6

12.

Brad Keselowski

15.33

6

13.

Greg Biffle

16.67

6

14.

Aric Almirola

17.00

6

14.

Brian Scott

17.00

2

16.

Paul Menard

18.33

6

16.

AJ Allmendinger

18.33

6

18.

Kyle Larson

18.60

5

19.

Austin Dillon

19.20

5

20.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

20.17

6

21.

Denny Hamlin

21.33

6

22.

Clint Bowyer

22.50

6

22.

Danica Patrick

22.50

6

24.

Casey Mears

23.00

6

25.

Jamie McMurray

23.17

6

26.

Tony Stewart

24.60

5

27.

Trevor Bayne

24.67

3

28.

Michael Annett

27.60

5

29.

Matt DiBenedetto

28.33

3

30.

David Ragan

31.33

6

31.

Cole Whitt

31.50

6

32.

Landon Cassill

33.17

6

33.

Reed Sorenson

34.20

5

34.

Michael McDowell

34.25

4

35.

Josh Wise

35.00

5

36.

Alex Bowman

35.25

4

37.

Timmy Hill

36.25

4

38.

Joey Gase

36.33

3

39.

Jeb Burton

39.50

2

Drivers with only one start

 

Chase Elliott

9.00

1

 

Regan Smith

23.00

1

 

Chris Buescher

24.00

1

 

Ty Dillon

26.00

1

 

Exercise Caution

Most caution flags: 15, 2013 Hollywood Casino 400
Fewest caution flags: 3, 2012 STP 400
Average number of caution flags per race: 8.6
In 2016: 7.4

Final Caution, last five races:
May 2016: 242 of 267: 4-car accident in turn 4 (Brad Keselowski, Denny Hamlin, Joey Logano, and Kyle Larson)
October 2015: 264 of 267: “The Spin” Joey Logano spun Matt Kenseth from the lead after Kenseth pinched him into the wall; Kenseth would later retaliate and draw a penalty at Martinsville.
May 2015: 257 of 267: 1-car accident (Ricky Stenhouse Jr.)
October 2015: 237 of 267: 1-car accident, backstretch
May 2014: 204 of 267: 1-car spin in turn 2 (Kurt Busch)

Most caution laps: 71, 2013 Hollywood Casino 400
Fewest caution laps: 18, 2012 STP 400
Average number of caution laps per race: 40.5
In 2016: 40.8

Leading the way

Most leaders: 14, 2009 Price Chopper 400 by Kraft Foods
Fewest leaders: 8, 2013 STP 400
Average number of leaders: 10.5
In 2016: 8.5

Most lead changes: 26, 2009 Price Chopper 400 by Kraft Foods
Fewest lead changes: 13 (2times), 2013 STP 400, 2002 Protection One 400
Average number of lead changes: 19.0
In 2016: 16.8

Victory Lane

Last five winners at Kansas (starting position):
May 2016: Kyle Busch (6)
October 2015: Joey Logano (14)
May 2015: Jimmie Johnson (19)
October 2014: Joey Logano (4)
May 2014: Jeff Gordon (13)

Worst starting position for race winner: 25th, Brad Keselowski: STP 400

A race at Kansas has been won by the pole sitter 4 times and from the front row 5 times in 21races.

Recent races won from the pole:
October 2013: Kevin Harvick, Hollywood Casino 400
April 2013: Matt Kenseth, STP 400
September 2008: Jimmie Johnson, Camping World RV 400 by Coleman
October 2004: Joe Nemechek, Banquet 400 by Con Agra Foods

Active winners at Kansas
Jimmie Johnson: 3
Joey Logano: 2
Tony Stewart: 2
Matt Kenseth: 2
Greg Biffle: 2
Denny Hamlin: 1
Brad Keselowski: 1
Ryan Newman: 1
Kevin Harvick: 1
Kyle Busch: 1

Top-10 All-time Winners:
Jimmie Johnson: 3
Jeff Gordon: 3
Joey Logano: 2
Tony Stewart: 2
Matt Kenseth: 2
Greg Biffle: 2
Kyle Busch, Deny Hamlin, Brad Keselowski, Ryan Newman, Mark Martin, Kevin Harvick, and Joe Nemechek (1 each).

First time winners at Kansas:
None, Brad Keselowski earned his second win in the 2011 STP 400

Similarly-configured, 1.5- and two-mile tracks (Kansas, Atlanta, Charlotte, Texas, Las Vegas, Chicagoland, and Kentucky)
All time

Jimmie Johnson: 2
Jeff Gordon: 2
Dale Earnhardt, Sr.: 23
David Pearson: 18
Bobby Allison: 16
Cale Yarborough: 15
Tony Stewart: 15
Darrell Waltrip: 14
Richard Petty: 14
Bill Elliott: 13
Matt Kenseth: 13

Running at the End

The following active drivers have been running at the end of every Kansas race they started:
Brad Keselowski (13)
Regan Smith (8)
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (7)
Cole Whitt (6)
Michael Annett (5)
Trevor Bayne (4)
Ryan Blaney (3)
Matt DiBenedetto (3)
Joey Gase (3)
Brian Scott (2)
Chris Buescher (1)
Ty Dillon (1)
Chase Elliott (1)

Greg Biffle crashed and failed to finish in 2002, but has been running at the end of the last 19.
Kyle Larson had been running at the end of his first four Kansas races, but crashed out of this May’s race.
Paul Menard had a prefect record of 14 races running at the end snapped by a blown engine this May.

Great Starts

Active drivers with top-10s in their first start on this track:
Ryan Newman: 2 (2001* and again in 2002)
Jamie McMurray: 7 (2003 and again in 2004)
Tony Stewart: 8 (2001* and again in 2002)
Chase Elliott: 9 (2016)
AJ Allmendinger: 9 (2008)
Clint Bowyer: 9 (2006)
Kurt Busch: 9 (2001*)
Jimmie Johnson: 10 (2002)
* inaugural race

Current Streaks

At Kansas
Kyle Busch, three top-fives
Brad Keselowski, three top-10s
Kurt Busch, three top-10s
Ryan Blaney, two top-10s

Similarly-configured, 1.5-mile tracks (Charlotte, Atlanta, Texas, Las Vegas, Kansas, Chicagoland, and Kentucky)
Matt Kenseth, five top-10s
Brad Keselowski, five top-10s
Kasey Kahne, two top-10s
Kyle Busch, two top-10s

Martin Truex Jr. had a three-race, top-10 streak end at Charlotte last week.

In 2016
Brad Keselowski, seven top-10s
Kyle Busch, five top-10s
Matt Kenseth, four top-10s
Jimmie Johnson, three top-10s

 

Dan Beaver

Dan Beaver has been covering fantasy NASCAR for more than 20 years with a little help from his >650,000 record database. He can be found on Twitter @FantasyRace.