Plate racing is never predictable.
Some races will run start to finish without a "Big One" crash and minimal stoppages for minor incidents. Others are crash-filled carnage fests that destroy fantasy players’ lineups in a split second and can reduce half the field to rubble. Most of the names at the top of the average finishes chart last year were popular drivers that also were used on unrestricted, intermediate speedways, but there were some surprises.
Dale Earnhardt Jr. regained his reputation as the Pied Piper of the Plate Tracks. He won his Gatorade Duel in Daytona, then finished third in the 500. His next two plate races ended with victories at Talladega in the spring and Daytona in the summer. He capped off the year with a second-place finish in the CampingWorld.com 500 and might have won if a Kevin Harvick had not caused a caution on the final restart. His average finish of 1.75 was remarkable by any standard and will make him one of 2016’s top picks. Unfortunately, he is just as likely to get swept into a "Big One" at Daytona as anyone else and he has to be watched closely.
Jimmie Johnson was on pace to match Earnhardt’s performance with three consecutive top-five finishes in the first three plate races. In fact, he was second to Junior in Talladega’s spring event and Daytona’s summer race. He got shuffled out of the draft on a late restart and finished 18th in the CampingWorld.com 500. Johnson is less attractive from a fantasy standpoint, however, because he is so strong on similarly-configured, 1.5-mile tracks. His success there is such that it raises his salary cap and that expense is hard to reconcile in a wild card race.
Like Johnson, Harvick was another marquee driver who entered the fall Talladega race with a great record. His worst result was an eighth in the spring event on that same course, but his engine soured at the end of the CampingWorld.com 500. On the final restart, he swerved into Trevor Bayne which drew a caution and allowed him to finish 15th once the field was frozen instead of falling to the back of the lead lap cars.
Joey Logano bookended his plate season with a pair of victories. He was the first driver to essentially lock himself into the Chase with a Daytona 500 win and he was fractions of an inch ahead of Earnhardt when Harvick drew the final ‘Dega caution, but those were his only successes. In the middle two restrictor-plate races he finished 33rd at Talladega in the spring and 22nd at Daytona in the fall.
Perhaps the most surprising driver overall was Paul Menard, however. His average finish on plate tracks of 12.5 was the fifth-best and would have been much better if not for a 25th in the Daytona 500. Fantasy players who held the faith in the Richard Childress Racing No. 27 were rewarded with top-10 finishes in both Talladega events and Menard was the best overall value at his price range in the GEICO 500.
Driver |
Avg. Finish |
Talladega 2 |
Daytona 2 |
Talladega 1 |
Daytona 1 |
1.75 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
3 |
|
6.75 |
18 |
2 |
2 |
5 |
|
7.25 |
15 |
4 |
8 |
2 |
|
9.00 |
10 |
5 |
12 |
|
|
12.50 |
6 |
16 |
3 |
25 |
|
13.25 |
37 |
3 |
9 |
4 |
|
13.75 |
8 |
10 |
30 |
7 |
|
14.00 |
11 |
17 |
|
|
|
14.25 |
1 |
22 |
33 |
1 |
|
14.50 |
7 |
38 |
5 |
8 |
|
16.25 |
17 |
30 |
6 |
12 |
|
16.25 |
12 |
8 |
7 |
38 |
|
17.50 |
14 |
7 |
35 |
14 |
|
19.00 |
31 |
11 |
28 |
6 |
|
20.00 |
16 |
34 |
15 |
15 |
|
20.50 |
22 |
25 |
13 |
22 |
|
20.75 |
9 |
19 |
26 |
29 |
|
21.75 |
20 |
20 |
37 |
10 |
|
23.00 |
39 |
15 |
11 |
27 |
|
23.50 |
19 |
32 |
34 |
9 |
|
23.50 |
36 |
21 |
17 |
20 |
|
24.00 |
4 |
29 |
22 |
41 |
|
24.25 |
30 |
12 |
38 |
17 |
|
25.00 |
25 |
14 |
19 |
42 |
|
25.00 |
13 |
|
36 |
26 |
|
25.25 |
5 |
41 |
32 |
23 |
|
25.25 |
21 |
9 |
41 |
30 |
|
25.75 |
32 |
40 |
20 |
11 |
|
26.00 |
27 |
35 |
21 |
21 |
|
27.25 |
26 |
23 |
25 |
35 |
|
28.00 |
|
|
|
28 |
|
28.67 |
43 |
|
4 |
39 |
|
29.25 |
23 |
43 |
27 |
24 |
|
29.75 |
29 |
31 |
10 |
49 |
|
30.00 |
42 |
18 |
23 |
37 |
|
30.25 |
33 |
24 |
16 |
48 |
|
31.00 |
45 |
37 |
29 |
13 |
|
JJ Yeley |
31.25 |
38 |
33 |
14 |
40 |
32.00 |
|
|
|
32 |
|
32.25 |
34 |
13 |
39 |
43 |
|
34.33 |
28 |
|
44 |
31 |
|
34.75 |
24 |
39 |
42 |
34 |
|
43.00 |
|
42 |
43 |
44 |
|
43.00 |
44 |
36 |
45 |
47 |
|
45.00 |
|
|
|
45 |
Road Courses
Similarly-configured, 1.5-mile tracks
Short Tracks
Two-mile Tracks
Flat Tracks