Update: Richmond

Mother Nature was mostly uncooperative on Friday.

NASCAR got one practice in the books and then qualification was rained out. The lineup was set by the first practice session speeds, which gave Kevin Harvick his first pole since last fall at Chicagoland Speedway. Notably, he led the field to green that weekend after time trials were also rained out, but he did not get a chance to show how powerful he would be at the end of the race. He crashed on lap 209 of 267 after ignoring a tire vibration. Harvick was fourth-fastest in final practice, however, which confirms his speed.

Joey Logano played the weather to his benefit and laid down the second-fastest lap in practice. He rolls off from the outside pole, but he was not quite as fast in final practice with only the 10th-best time. He wasn’t much better on long runs in Happy Hour—posting only the 15th-quickest, 10-lap average. Given the struggles he has experienced for most of 2016, it is unlikely he is going to challenge for a top-five despite a three-year average that put him atop the leaderboard in this week’s Statistically Speaking column.

The best overall value this week might be Jimmie Johnson. He had the third-fastest time in first practice, was fastest in Happy Hour, and posted the quickest 10-lap average in that session. Unless he employs a risky setup during the afternoon or makes a mistake in the pits, he should be one of this week’s dominant drivers. His combination of short- and long-run speed could earn maximum points in most salary cap games even though he will not maximize place-differential points.

Players looking for dark horses might want to consider Ryan Blaney and Ryan Newman. Both drivers start outside the top 10 with Newman rolling off 14th and Blaney well down the order in 29th. Both had solid 10-lap averages, however. Newman posted the ninth-quickest time in final practice; Blaney was 10th and those numbers are supported by the fact that all but a couple of drivers ran 10 laps or more during the afternoon.

Martin Truex Jr. was right there with Newman and Blaney in Happy Hour. He posted the 11th-quickest, 10-lap average and rolls off the grid 22nd. If he can squeak into the top 10 and earn the points associated with that, plus bank 12 or more place-differential points in games that offer them, Truex will be well-worth his salary cap. Anything in the low-teens will make him a decent value, but once he slips into the mid-teens he will be too expensive. In the past three year’s, Truex has an average of slightly better than 17th, which makes him a coin toss this week.