Update: Texas

This year, we have been looking at speed in combined practice sessions and qualification. Two drivers stand head and shoulders above the competition in that regard. Martin Truex Jr. has been uneven at Texas Motor Speedway during his career. He swept the top 10 last year, but failed to earn a top-15 in either 2014 race. He can take this track in spells, and has not yet scored three consecutive Texas top-10s, but this could be his week to set a new record. One would be more confident if not for his 32nd at Auto Club Speedway and 18th at Martinsville Speedway—and the momentum that may have robbed.

After a disappointing week at Martinsville, Joey Logano needs to bounce back. He qualified on the pole for the STP 500, but fell back quickly and never recovered. The last time he started on the front row on a similarly-configured, 1.5-mile track, however, he finished second from second at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. He has been running well recently, as his numbers in this week’s Statistically Speaking column attests, but a crash last fall hurts his average. Logano had the third-fastest time Thursday afternoon and was fifth-best in final practice.

After that, fantasy players can throw a blanket over pole sitter Carl Edwards, eighth-place qualifier Brad Keselowski, and 11th-place Jimmie Johnson.

Edwards’ pole certainly recommends him, but Keselowski was second-fastest on Thursday and Johnson makes up with consistency what he lacks in shear speed. Which of these drivers winds up ahead of the others will depend on track position and whether a long, green-flag run develops at the end of the Duck Commander 500. That is hard to anticipate early, so players need to make a decision based on other factors. Edwards is likely to cost place-differential points in games that offer them, while Johnson is going to gain them—but the No. 48 will cost quite a bit more than the No. 19.

Some high-profile drivers to avoid will be Dale Earnhardt Jr., Jamie McMurray, and Paul Menard.

Earnhardt has Hendrick Motorsports power under the hood, but he is going to be mired in traffic at the start of the race. His 16th-place qualification effort is underscored by the 17th-fastest lap in final practice. He was one of only eight drivers who did not run at least 10 consecutive laps in Happy Hour and was the only top-named driver to do only short runs.

Menard was only 20th-quick in terms of 10-lap averages in final practice, which puts him near the bottom third of the grid. He’ll start 25th and it is going to take some great calls in the pits to get him track position. He can do it, but the odds are not in his favor.

McMurray did not qualify particularly well on Friday, but he was significantly better than practice. He improved from 33rd-fastest to 18th—and then posted the eighth-best lap in Happy Hour. He was not particularly strong in long runs during final practice, however, with only the 22nd-quickest speed.