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Strike Zone

Pitching Projections Review

by Matthew Pouliot
Updated On: October 4, 2018, 4:04 pm ET

Here is the last of the three 2016 projection recap columns, this one looking at the starting pitchers. I’ll post the entire preseason top 25 and then some others of interest. I’ll have another Strike Zone up the day after the World Series ends, that one looking at this winter’s top 111 free agents. Here is a link to the most recent hitter projections review.

 

Starting Pitching Projections Review

 

Top 25

 

1. Clayton Kershaw - Dodgers

Projection: 19-7, 2.08 ERA, 0.938 WHIP, 15 HR, 260/42 K/BB in 220 2/3 IP

2016 stats: 12-4, 1.69 ERA, 0.725 WHIP, 8 HR, 172/11 K/BB in 149 IP

 

2. Max Scherzer - Nationals

Projection: 16-9, 2.71 ERA, 1.048 WHIP, 22 HR, 255/43 K/BB in 215 2/3 IP

2016 stats: 20-7, 2.96 ERA, 0.968 WHIP, 31 HR, 284/56 K/BB in 228 1/3 IP

 

Just as with the hitters, you’ll find that I often underprojected homers here, not expecting the 15 percent leaguewide increase we’d see this year. Still, I definitely could have pegged Scherzer for a few more, given that he allowed 27 in 2015.

 

3. Madison Bumgarner - Giants

Projection: 17-9, 2.71 ERA, 1.046 WHIP, 20 HR, 225/40 K/BB in 219 IP

2016 stats: 15-9, 2.74 ERA, 1.024 WHIP, 26 HR, 251/54 K/BB in 226 2/3 IP

 

4. Jake Arrieta - Cubs

Projection: 16-7, 2.47 ERA, 1.041 WHIP, 13 HR, 206/45 K/BB in 197 IP

2016 stats: 18-8, 3.10 ERA, 1.084 WHIP, 16 HR, 190/76 K/BB in 197 1/3 IP

 

5. Chris Sale - White Sox

Projection: 14-8, 2.68 ERA, 1.016 WHIP, 19 HR, 226/37 K/BB in 188 IP

2016 stats: 17-10, 3.34 ERA, 1.037 WHIP, 27 HR, 233/45 K/BB in 226 2/3 IP

 

6. Jose Fernandez - Marlins

Projection: 13-8, 2.42 ERA, 1.037 WHIP, 13 HR, 212/44 K/BB in 178 1/3 IP

2016 stats: 16-8, 2.86 ERA, 1.119 WHIP, 13 HR, 253/55 K/BB in 182 1/3 IP

 

It’s not any less painful a few weeks later. Not that it matters in the grand scheme of things, but I was looking forward to listing Fernandez as the No. 2 starter behind Kershaw in next year’s rankings.

 

7. David Price - Red Sox

Projection: 18-9, 3.15 ERA, 1.085 WHIP, 23 HR, 221/40 K/BB in 223 IP

2016 stats: 17-9, 3.99 ERA, 1.204 WHIP, 30 HR, 228/50 K/BB in 230 IP

 

Price had a 3.39 ERA over his final 28 starts, and his strikeout rate was great all along. I still think he’s a top-10 starter next year, even though he probably won’t have a top-10 ERA.

 

8. Jacob deGrom - Mets

Projection: 15-8, 2.84 ERA, 1.071 WHIP, 19 HR, 217/44 K/BB in 202 2/3 IP

2016 stats: 7-8, 3.04 ERA, 1.203 WHIP, 15 HR, 143/36 K/BB in 148 IP

 

9. Corey Kluber - Indians

Projection: 15-11, 3.13 ERA, 1.066 WHIP, 23 HR, 233/42 K/BB in 221 1/3 IP

2016 stats: 18-9, 3.14 ERA, 1.056 WHIP, 22 HR, 227/57 K/BB in 215 IP

 

I think it’s safe to say that Cy Young Award winners typically exceed preseason expectations. That won’t be the case as much this year if both Kluber and Scherzer prevail (not that those two are close to locks).

 

10. Gerrit Cole - Pirates

Projection: 16-7, 2.70 ERA, 1.091 WHIP, 13 HR, 198/44 K/BB in 193 1/3 IP

2016 stats: 7-10, 3.88 ERA, 1.440 WHIP, 7 HR, 98/36 K/BB in 116 IP

 

11. Stephen Strasburg - Nationals

Projection: 14-9, 2.84 ERA, 1.067 WHIP, 19 HR, 216/37 K/BB in 193 IP

2016 stats: 15-4, 3.60 ERA, 1.104 WHIP, 15 HR, 183/44 K/BB in 147 2/3 IP

 

12. Carlos Carrasco - Indians

Projection: 15-8, 2.94 ERA, 1.087 WHIP, 18 HR, 222/48 K/BB in 198 2/3 IP

2016 stats: 11-8, 3.32 ERA, 1.148 WHIP, 21 HR, 150/34 K/BB in 146 1/3 IP

 

If Carrasco was a bit of a disappointment while healthy this year, it was largely because of how terrific of a hitter’s park Progressive Field turned out to be. Carrasco had a 141 ERA+ with his 3.32 ERA, according to Baseball-Reference. For comparison’s sake, Justin Verlander was at 136 with his 3.04 ERA. The other guys in Carrasco’s ERA+ range all finished with ERAs right around 3.00 or slightly below. I’ll be pretty high on Carrasco again next year.

 

13. Dallas Keuchel - Astros

Projection: 17-9, 2.92 ERA, 1.139 WHIP, 15 HR, 180/46 K/BB in 216 IP

2016 stats: 9-12, 4.55 ERA, 1.286 WHIP, 20 HR, 144/48 K/BB in 168 IP

 

According to the Astros, Keuchel never had any structural damage in his shoulder, making him a decent bounce-back candidate for 2017. Before he got hurt, his velocity was back up to where it was in his Cy Young campaign, and he still had an excellent groundball rate and fine strikeout rate to go along with the 4.55 ERA.

 

14. Matt Harvey - Mets

Projection: 14-8, 2.93 ERA, 1.091 WHIP, 19 HR, 200/42 K/BB in 193 1/3 IP

2016 stats: 4-10, 4.86 ERA, 1.468 WHIP, 8 HR, 76/25 K/BB in 92 2/3 IP

 

15. Felix Hernandez - Mariners

Projection: 16-10, 3.08 ERA, 1.125 WHIP, 18 HR, 201/48 K/BB in 213 1/3 IP

2016 stats: 11-8, 3.82 ERA, 1.324 WHIP, 19 HR, 122/65 K/BB in 153 1/3 IP

 

Obviously, Hernandez has some adjustments to make this winter. Unless his velocity comes back some, he’d seem to be done contending for Cy Young Awards. I’m guessing I’ll have him in the 30-40 range among SPs next spring.

 

16. Zack Greinke - Diamondbacks

Projection: 15-10, 3.07 ERA, 1.120 WHIP, 19 HR, 200/41 K/BB in 208 IP

2016 stats: 13-7, 4.37 ERA, 1.273 WHIP, 23 HR, 134/41 K/BB in 158 2/3 IP

 

17. Sonny Gray - Athletics

Projection: 15-10, 3.05 ERA, 1.133 WHIP, 18 HR, 182/57 K/BB in 212 2/3 IP

2016 stats: 5-11, 5.69 ERA, 1.496 WHIP, 18 HR, 94/42 K/BB in 117 IP

 

18. Cole Hamels - Rangers

Projection: 16-9, 3.29 ERA, 1.144 WHIP, 22 HR, 207/51 K/BB in 213 1/3 IP

2016 stats: 15-5, 3.32 ERA, 1.306 WHIP, 32 HR, 200/77 K/BB in 200 2/3 IP

 

19. Noah Syndergaard -Mets

Projection: 13-7, 2.95 ERA, 1.086 WHIP, 17 HR, 188/40 K/BB in 174 IP

2016 stats: 14-9, 2.60 ERA, 1.149 WHIP, 11 HR, 218/43 K/BB in 183 2/3 IP

 

Syndergaard chose not to undergo surgery on the bone spur in his elbow. It’s one of those things that could cease being an issue entirely or turn back into a problem again at a moment’s notice. I remain worried about the possibility of other arm issues as well, but I still don’t see how I’ll be able to keep him out of the top 10 next year.

 

20. Adam Wainwright - Cardinals

Projection: 16-9, 3.05 ERA, 1.137 WHIP, 16 HR, 167/42 K/BB in 209 1/3 IP

2016 stats: 13-9, 4.62 ERA, 1.404 WHIP, 22 HR, 161/59 K/BB in 198 2/3 IP

 

Wainwright’s velocity was the same as ever, and his strikeout rate wasn’t bad. However, his location wasn’t what it used to be and it didn’t help matters that the Cardinals defense wasn’t very good (Wainwright allowed a .330 BABIP).

 

21. Johnny Cueto - Giants

Projection: 15-10, 3.12 ERA, 1.129 WHIP, 18 HR, 176/48 K/BB in 204 2/3 IP

2016 stats: 18-5, 2.79 ERA, 1.093 WHIP, 15 HR, 198/45 K/BB in 219 2/3 IP

 

One of my biggest regrets was not ranking Cueto higher, but I was a little worried about the elbow, as were his suitors in free agency a year ago.

 

22. Marcus Stroman - Blue Jays

Projection: 15-7, 3.16 ERA, 1.110 WHIP, 18 HR, 173/41 K/BB in 196 1/3 IP

2016 stats: 9-10, 4.37 ERA, 1.289 WHIP, 21 HR, 166/54 K/BB in 204 IP

 

23. Garrett Richards - Angels

Projection: 15-9, 3.08 ERA, 1.160 WHIP, 15 HR, 183/65 K/BB in 204 1/3 IP

2016 stats: 1-3, 2.34 ERA, 1.327 WHIP, 2 HR, 34/15 K/BB in 34 2/3 IP

 

24. Jeff Samardzija - Giants

Projection: 14-12, 3.29 ERA, 1.146 WHIP, 21 HR, 205/50 K/BB in 216 1/3 IP

2016 stats: 12-11, 3.81 ERA, 1.200 WHIP, 24 HR, 167/54 K/BB in 203 1/3 IP

 

Samardzija averaged a strikeout an inning in his 2 1/2 seasons as a starter for the Cubs. I figured the strikeout rate would come back up with a return to the National League, but it didn’t really materialize.

 

25. Justin Verlander - Tigers

Projection: 16-9, 3.32 ERA, 1.153 WHIP, 21 HR, 189/51 K/BB in 209 IP

2016 stats: 16-9, 3.04 ERA, 1.001 WHIP, 30 HR, 254/57 K/BB in 227 2/3 IP

 

I liked the way Verlander finished 2015, so I was fairly aggressive here. Still, the strikeouts were a huge surprise. He averaged 10 per 9 innings, up from 7.6 in 2015 and 6.9 in 2014. My projection pegged him at 8.1.

 

Others

 

27. Chris Archer - Rays

Projection: 14-8, 3.21 ERA, 1.167 WHIP, 17 HR, 192/57 K/BB in 187 2/3 IP

2016 stats: 9-19, 4.02 ERA, 1.242 WHIP, 30 HR, 233/67 K/BB in 201 1/3 IP

 

I suggested staying away because of the likelihood of injury. Archer made his 33 starts and racked up a huge strikeout total, but staying away proved to be the right call, even if he was a little better than his ERA suggested.

 

28. Jon Lester - Cubs

Projection: 14-10, 3.45 ERA, 1.154 WHIP, 19 HR, 198/48 K/BB in 203 2/3 IP

2016 stats: 19-5, 2.44 ERA, 1.016 WHIP, 21 HR, 197/52 K/BB in 202 2/3 IP

 

I think I underestimated the Cubs defense more than I did Lester. The left-hander finished with a 3.41 FIP and a 3.47 xFIP, and he had no history of outpitching his peripherals. The Cubs defense is just that good.

 

29. Carlos Martinez - Cardinals

Projection: 13-7, 2.91 ERA, 1.180 WHIP, 11 HR, 165/52 K/BB in 167 IP

2016 stats: 16-9, 3.04 ERA, 1.224 WHIP, 15 HR, 174/70 K/BB in 195 1/3 IP

 

31. Michael Pineda - Yankees

Projection: 12-8, 3.30 ERA, 1.093 WHIP, 21 HR, 163/26 K/BB in 172 IP

2016 stats: 6-12, 4.82 ERA, 1.349 WHIP, 27 HR, 207/53 K/BB in 175 2/3 IP

 

In major league history, 79 pitchers have thrown 162 innings in a season while averaging 10 strikeouts per nine innings. Pineda did it this year with a 4.82 ERA, which ranks 78th on that list of 79 pitchers. No. 79 is Robbie Ray’s 2016 (4.90 ERA, 11.3 K/9 IP).

 

35. Masahiro Tanaka - Yankees

Projection: 11-8, 3.42 ERA, 1.090 WHIP, 22 HR, 156/26 K/BB in 163 1/3 IP

2016 stats: 14-4, 3.07 ERA, 1.077 WHIP, 22 HR, 165/36 K/BB in 199 2/3 IP

 

36. Jose Quintana - White Sox

Projection: 13-11, 3.38 ERA, 1.186 WHIP, 20 HR, 174/44 K/BB in 202 1/3 IP

2016 stats: 13-12, 3.20 ERA, 1.163 WHIP, 22 HR, 181/50 K/BB in 208 IP

 

Projecting 13 wins for Quintana was going out on a limb, thank you very much.

 

37. Patrick Corbin - Diamondbacks

Projection: 13-9, 3.48 ERA, 1.182 WHIP, 20 HR, 181/46 K/BB in 196 1/3 IP

2016 stats: 5-13, 5.15 ERA, 1.561 WHIP, 24 HR, 131/66 K/BB in 155 2/3 IP

 

One of my biggest disappointments this year. Corbin had better velocity upon returning from Tommy John surgery in 2015 than he did in his previous two big-league seasons, but his stuff simply wasn’t the same this year. It only really came back when he was shifted to the pen late in the year (he fanned 26 in 23 1/3 innings as a reliever). I assume he’ll be back in the rotation next spring, and he’ll be a sleeper if he’s throwing 91-94 mph in March.

 

41. Steven Matz - Mets

Projection: 12-9, 3.40 ERA, 1.201 WHIP, 17 HR, 170/54 K/BB in 177 1/3 IP

2016 stats: 9-8, 3.40 ERA, 1.209 WHIP, 14 HR, 129/31 K/BB in 132 1/3 IP

 

45. Kenta Maeda - Dodgers

Projection: 14-9, 3.47 ERA, 1.224 WHIP, 18 HR, 159/52 K/BB in 192 IP

2016 stats: 16-11, 3.48 ERA, 1.139 WHIP, 20 HR, 179/50 K/BB in 175 2/3 IP

 

The ERA was right on, but I thought Maeda would be more efficient and wind up with fewer strikeouts. He averaged just 5.5 innings per start after averaging 7.1 innings in his final year in Japan. Part of that was the Dodgers trying to protect him while he was working on a shorter rest schedule than he was used to, but the other part was that Maeda struggled to keep his pitch counts down.

 

47. Kyle Hendricks - Cubs

Projection: 12-9, 3.56 ERA, 1.174 WHIP, 17 HR, 153/40 K/BB in 187 1/3 IP

2016 stats: 16-8, 2.13 ERA, 0.979 WHIP, 15 HR, 177/44 K/BB in 190 IP

 

Now, this was a combination of Hendricks being better than expected and the Cubs defense being ridiculous.

 

51. Yu Darvish - Rangers

Projection: 10-6, 3.49 ERA, 1.215 WHIP, 15 HR, 149/46 K/BB in 131 2/3 IP

2016 stats: 7-5, 3.41 ERA, 1.116 WHIP, 12 HR, 132/31 K/BB in 100 1/3 IP

 

53. Jordan Zimmermann - Tigers

Projection: 13-10, 3.74 ERA, 1.192 WHIP, 22 HR, 151/38 K/BB in 194 2/3 IP

2016 stats: 9-7, 4.87 ERA, 1.367 WHIP, 14 HR, 66/26 K/BB in 105 1/3 IP

 

The AL Pitcher of the Month for April, believe it or not. Zimmermann was always on the avoid list because of some decline in his velocity and strikeout rate. I don’t expect a big rebound.

 

54. Julio Teheran - Braves

Projection: 11-13, 3.68 ERA, 1.192 WHIP, 24 HR, 174/51 K/BB in 208 IP

2016 stats: 7-10, 3.21 ERA, 1.053 WHIP, 22 HR, 167/41 K/BB in 188 IP

 

55. Juan Nicasio - Pirates

Projection: 11-8, 3.47 ERA, 1.240 WHIP, 16 HR, 178/59 K/BB in 171 IP

2016 stats: 10-7, 4.50 ERA, 1.373 WHIP, 15 HR, 138/45 K/BB in 118 IP

 

I thought the Pirates made a great move when they signed Nicasio as a reliever last winter. Then I made the mistake of buying in when he was so impressive in pitching his way into the rotation in the spring. Part of that was the Pirates’ track record with pitchers. Nicasio, though, struggled as a starter before settling back into his niche. He had a 3.05 ERA and a 63/12 K/BB ratio in 44 1/3 innings out of the pen in the second half.

 

58. Shelby Miller - Diamondbacks

Projection: 13-11, 3.72 ERA, 1.274 WHIP, 23 HR, 183/68 K/BB in 210 1/3 IP

2016 stats: 3-12, 6.15 ERA, 1.673 WHIP, 14 HR, 70/42 K/BB in 101 IP

 

While most disliked the Diamondbacks’ trade for Miller, I don’t think anyone saw him collapsing like that. I think he’ll make it back to being a useful middle-of-the-rotation starter, but there will be better late-round sleepers in mixed-league drafts next spring.

 

59. Jason Hammel - Cubs

Projection: 11-8, 3.69 ERA, 1.194 WHIP, 21 HR, 157/41 K/BB in 168 1/3 IP

2016 stats: 15-10, 3.83 ERA, 1.206 WHIP, 25 HR, 144/53 K/BB in 166 2/3 IP

 

66. James Shields - Padres/White Sox

Projection: 12-12, 3.83 ERA, 1.236 WHIP, 25 HR, 185/54 K/BB in 204 2/3 IP

2016 stats: 6-19, 5.85 ERA, 1.596 WHIP, 40 HR, 135/82 K/BB in 181 2/3 IP

 

Shields avoided the 20-loss season, but he did become the first starter to give up 40 homers since Bronson Arroyo in 2011.

 

67. Marco Estrada - Blue Jays

Projection: 12-11, 4.07 ERA, 1.166 WHIP, 31 HR, 161/51 K/BB in 194 2/3 IP

2016 stats: 9-9, 3.48 ERA, 1.119 WHIP, 23 HR, 165/65 K/BB in 176 IP

 

68. Kevin Gausman - Orioles

Projection: 11-9, 3.83 ERA, 1.211 WHIP, 23 HR, 151/41 K/BB in 169 1/3 IP

2016 stats: 9-12, 3.61 ERA, 1.280 WHIP, 28 HR, 174/47 K/BB in 179 2/3 IP

 

75. Rick Porcello - Red Sox

Projection: 12-10, 3.86 ERA, 1.221 WHIP, 22 HR, 147/38 K/BB in 195 2/3 IP

2016 stats: 22-4, 3.15 ERA, 1.009 WHIP, 23 HR, 189/32 K/BB in 223 IP

 

76. Ian Kennedy - Royals

Projection: 12-11, 3.95 ERA, 1.244 WHIP, 25 HR, 179/56 K/BB in 191 1/3 IP

2016 stats: 11-11, 3.68 ERA, 1.221 WHIP, 33 HR, 184/66 K/BB in 195 2/3 IP

 

85. Carlos Rodon - White Sox

Projection: 11-10, 3.90 ERA, 1.323 WHIP, 18 HR, 186/76 K/BB in 177 2/3 IP

2016 stats: 9-10, 4.04 ERA, 1.394 WHIP, 23 HR, 168/54 K/BB in 165 IP

 

I didn’t think Rodon was ready for prime time just yet, but next year should be better. The improvement in his walk rate was encouraging. After the All-Star break, he had a 3.45 ERA and a 77/22 K/BB ratio in 73 innings.

 

95. Rich Hill - Athletics/Dodgers

Projection: 8-7, 3.72 ERA, 1.210 WHIP, 15 HR, 124/41 K/BB in 125 2/3 IP

2016 stats: 12-5, 2.12 ERA, 0.997 WHIP, 4 HR, 129/33 K/BB in 110 1/3 IP

 

97. Matt Shoemaker - Angels

Projection: 9-8, 3.83 ERA, 1.191 WHIP, 19 HR, 120/33 K/BB in 141 IP

2016 stats: 9-13, 3.88 ERA, 1.225 WHIP, 18 HR, 143/30 K/BB in 160 IP

 

101. Drew Pomeranz - Padres/Red Sox

Projection: 8-7, 3.68 ERA, 1.270 WHIP, 15 HR, 135/49 K/BB in 139 1/3 IP

2016 stats: 11-12, 3.32 ERA, 1.184 WHIP, 22 HR, 186/65 K/BB in 170 2/3 IP

 

103. J.A. Happ - Blue Jays

Projection: 11-10, 4.06 ERA, 1.280 WHIP, 24 HR, 152/52 K/BB in 177 1/3 IP

2016 stats: 20-4, 3.18 ERA, 1.169 WHIP, 22 HR, 163/60 K/BB in 195 IP

 

107. Aaron Sanchez - Blue Jays

Projection: 10-7, 3.85 ERA, 1.311 WHIP, 13 HR, 113/52 K/BB in 142 2/3 IP

2016 stats: 15-2, 3.00 ERA, 1.167 WHIP, 15 HR, 161/63 K/BB in 192 IP

 

There’s no denying Sanchez’s stuff, but I’ll be worried about that jump from 109 innings to 204 (including his two postseason starts). His previous high in innings pitched was 133 in 2014.

 

117. Jon Gray - Rockies

Projection: 10-9, 4.05 ERA, 1.324 WHIP, 20 HR, 150/50 K/BB in 162 1/3 IP

2016 stats: 10-10, 4.61 ERA, 1.262 WHIP, 18 HR, 185/59 K/BB in 168 IP

 

There haven’t been many more impressive seasons to result in ERAs above 4.50. Gray finished with a 3.61 FIP despite making half of his starts at Coors Field. If he pitched in a neutral setting, I’d probably rank him as a top-30 starter next spring.

 

119. James Paxton - Mariners

Projection: 9-8, 3.87 ERA, 1.316 WHIP, 15 HR, 124/52 K/BB in 146 2/3 IP

2016 stats: 6-7, 3.79 ERA, 1.306 WHIP, 9 HR, 117/24 K/BB in 121 IP

 

120. Danny Duffy - Royals

Projection: 8-7, 3.83 ERA, 1.291 WHIP, 15 HR, 116/50 K/BB in 138 2/3 IP

2016 stats: 12-3, 3.51 ERA, 1.141 WHIP, 27 HR, 188/42 K/BB in 179 2/3 IP

 

Not bad for a guy who was sent to the bullpen in favor of Chris Young and Kris Medlen at the end of the spring.

 

132. Tanner Roark - Nationals

Projection: 9-10, 4.02 ERA, 1.277 WHIP, 19 HR. 108/35 K/BB in 159 IP

2016 stats: 16-10, 2.83 ERA, 1.171 WHIP, 17 HR, 172/73 K/BB in 210 IP

 

Roark struck out 6.3 batters per nine innings during his surprising 15-win 2014 season and then just 5.7 batters per nine innings while spending much of 2015 in the bullpen. So, it was a big surprise to see him come out this year and strike out 7.4 batters per nine innings as a full-time starter. Still, even with those strikeouts, he had a 3.79 FIP to go along with his 2.83 ERA.

 

136. Bartolo Colon - Mets

Projection: 9-9, 4.25 ERA, 1.226 WHIP, 22 HR, 108/21 K/BB in 159 IP

2016 stats: 15-8, 3.43 ERA, 1.210 WHIP, 24 HR, 128/33 K/BB in 191 2/3 IP

 

139. Blake Snell - Rays

Projection: 6-5, 3.79 ERA, 1.315 WHIP, 10 HR, 93/40 K/BB in 97 1/3 IP

2016 stats: 6-8, 3.54 ERA, 1.618 WHIP, 5 HR, 98/51 K/BB in 89 IP

 

The 1.618 WHIP jumps out, but Snell will get the walks down and he seems to have a knack for limiting home run balls. He’ll open next year in the top 60.

 

142. CC Sabathia - Yankees

Projection: 9-10, 4.43 ERA, 1.271 WHIP, 27 HR, 149/44 K/BB in 174 2/3 IP

2016 stats: 9-12, 3.91 ERA, 1.319 WHIP, 22 HR, 152/65 K/BB in 179 2/3 IP

 

146. Steven Wright - Red Sox

Projection: 8-7, 3.99 ERA, 1.290 WHIP, 15 HR, 99/46 K/BB in 128 2/3 IP

2016 stats: 13-6, 3.33 ERA, 1.245 WHIP, 12 HR, 127/57 K/BB in 156 2/3 IP

 

151. Chris Tillman - Orioles

Projection: 11-12, 4.31 ERA, 1.326 WHIP, 27 HR, 140/59 K/BB in 192 1/3 IP

2016 stats: 16-6, 3.77 ERA, 1.285 WHIP, 19 HR, 140/66 K/BB in 172 IP

 

157. Ivan Nova - Yankees/Pirates

Projection: 9-9, 4.23 ERA, 1.315 WHIP, 19 HR, 123/49 K/BB in 159 2/3 IP

2016 stats: 12-8, 4.17 ERA, 1.253 WHIP, 23 HR, 127/28 K/BB in 162 IP

 

Usually, the in-season trades prove detrimental to preseason projections. Nova, though, badly needed the Pirates bounce to match up with expectations.

 

167. Sean Manaea - Athletics

Projection: 5-5, 3.90 ERA, 1.323 WHIP, 9 HR, 79/35 K/BB in 87 2/3 IP

2016 stats: 7-9, 3.86 ERA, 1.189 WHIP, 20 HR, 124/37 K/BB in 144 2/3 IP

 

175. Julio Urias - Dodgers

Projection: 3-2, 3.51 ERA, 1.247 WHIP, 4 HR, 50/19 K/BB in 51 1/3 IP

2016 stats: 5-2, 3.39 ERA, 1.455 WHIP, 5 HR, 84/31 K/BB in 77 IP

 

The Dodgers will still want to monitor the 20-year-old Urias’s innings closely next year, so I’m not sure he has a rotation spot on Opening Day. If he were unrestricted in the innings department, he’d make the top 50 for sure. As is, he’ll probably be a little lower.

 

179. Brandon Finnegan - Reds

Projection: 6-8, 4.18 ERA, 1.353 WHIP, 14 HR, 110/50 K/BB in 122 2/3 IP

2016 stats: 10-11, 3.98 ERA, 1.360 WHIP, 29 HR, 145/84 K/BB in 172 IP

 

194. Michael Fulmer - Tigers

Projection: 4-3, 4.08 ERA, 1.281 WHIP, 8 HR, 53/19 K/BB in 64 IP

2016 stats: 11-7, 3.06 ERA, 1.119 WHIP, 16 HR, 132/42 K/BB in 159 IP

 

198. Dylan Bundy - Orioles

Projection: 4-3, 4.14 ERA, 1.355 WHIP, 9 HR, 72/33 K/BB in 76 IP

2016 stats: 10-6, 4.02 ERA, 1.377 WHIP, 18 HR, 104/42 K/BB in 109 2/3 IP

 

He’ll be interesting next year in a late-round-pick kind of way. It’s just not easy for an Orioles pitcher to amass a lot of fantasy value in the AL East and Camden Yards, particularly one who allows as many flies as Bundy does. Still, the talent is obvious.

 

214. Tom Koehler - Marlins

Projection: 8-13, 4.38 ERA, 1.370 WHIP, 22 HR, 129/62 K/BB in 181 IP

2016 stats: 9-13, 4.33 ERA, 1.466 WHIP, 22 HR, 147/83 K/BB in 176 2/3 IP

 

Well, I had to end it on a good note.

Matthew Pouliot
Matthew Pouliot is the Executive Editor of RotoWorld.com and has been doing the site's baseball projections for the last 10 years. Follow him on Twitter @matthewpouliot.