Loading scores...
Strike Zone

Projection Review: Hitters

by Matthew Pouliot
Updated On: October 4, 2018, 4:04 pm ET

Here’s the first of two columns looking at back at my hitting projections and how things ended up. I’ll be doing the top 10 for each position and other notables, starting with the catchers, first basemen, second basemen and third basemen today.

 

Catchers

 

1. Buster Posey - Giants

Projection: .301/.366/.480, 19 HR, 74 R, 75 RBI, 1 SB in 492 AB

2015 stats: .318/.379/.470, 19 HR, 74 R, 95 RBI, 2 SB in 557 AB

 

2. Jonathan Lucroy - Brewers

Projection: .286/.350/.445, 16 HR, 76 R, 70 RBI, 4 SB in 528 AB

2015 stats: .264/.326/.391, 7 HR, 51 R, 43 RBI, 1 SB in 371 AB

 

3. Evan Gattis - Astros

Projection: .240/.299/.463, 28 HR, 70 R, 87 RBI, 1 SB in 499 AB

2015 stats: .246/.285/.463, 27 HR, 66 R, 88 RBI, 0 SB in 566 AB

 

4. Devin Mesoraco - Reds

Projection: .261/.339/.484, 23 HR, 60 R, 80 RBI, 2 SB in 417 AB

2015 stats: .178/.275/.244, 0 HR, 2 R, 2 RBI, 1 SB in 45 AB

 

5. Brian McCann - Yankees

Projection: .245/.313/.448, 26 HR, 62 R, 80 RBI, 1 SB in 462 AB

2015 stats: .232/.320/.437, 26 HR, 68 R, 94 RBI, 0 SB in 465 AB

 

You’ll notice a few examples here of players beating their run and RBI totals in otherwise fine projections. Run scoring was up 4 1/2 percent compared to 2014, which I wasn’t expecting after such a steady decline in recent seasons.

 

6. Salvador Perez - Royals

Projection: .282/.313/.434, 16 HR, 58 R, 69 RBI, 0 SB in 500 AB

2015 stats: .260/.280/.426, 21 HR, 52 R, 70 RBI, 1 SB in 531 AB

 

7. Matt Wieters - Orioles

Projection: .262/.319/.439, 19 HR, 57 R, 73 RBI, 1 SB in 451 AB

2015 stats: .267/.319/.422, 8 HR, 24 R, 25 RBI, 0 SB in 258 AB

 

It’ll be fascinating to see what happens with Wieters in free agency this winter. Two years ago, he was in line for a $150 million-$200 million contract even with his mediocre offense. However, between the Tommy John surgery and the modest hit his defensive rep has taken with Caleb Joseph playing so well in Baltimore, there’s now the chance we could see him take a one-year contract to rebuild his value. Still, I don’t really think it’ll come to that; there’s so little front-line catching out there that someone will make a big offer.

 

8. Yan Gomes - Indians

Projection: .264/.310/.442, 17 HR, 56 R, 65 RBI, 1 SB in 455 AB

2015 stats: .231/.267/.391, 12 HR, 38 R, 45 RBI, 0 SB in 363 AB

 

9. Russell Martin - Blue Jays

Projection: .233/.321/.397, 17 HR, 67 R, 58 RBI, 5 SB in 438 AB

2015 stats: .240/.329/.458, 23 HR, 76 R, 77 RBI, 4 SB in 441 AB

 

10. Wilson Ramos - Nationals

Projection: .272/.317/.438, 16 HR, 47 R, 60 RBI, 0 SB in 416 AB

2015 stats: .229/.258/.358, 15 HR, 41 R, 68 RBI, 0 SB in 475 AB

 

I thought Ramos would be quite a bit better than this if he ever put in a full season. He had fewer total bases in 475 at-bats this year than he did in 389 at-bats (his previous career high) in 2011.

 

Others

 

27 1B. Stephen Vogt - Athletics

Projection: .263/.318/.406, 12 HR, 53 R, 61 RBI, 2 SB in 429 AB

2015 stats: .261/.341/.443, 18 HR, 58 R, 71 RBI, 0 SB in 445 AB

 

Vogt was my No. 11 catcher in the preseason, though since he didn’t qualify, he was listed with the first basemen. I would have liked him even better had the A’s planned to use him in left field or at first base again. He had a 1.022 OPS through the end of May before the rigors of catching regularly took their toll.

 

11. Yadier Molina - Cardinals

Projection: .276/.329/.382, 9 HR, 49 R, 56 RBI, 2 SB in 468 AB

2015 stats: .270/.310/.350, 4 HR, 34 R, 61 RBI, 3 SB in 488 AB

 

12. Travis d’Arnaud - Mets

Projection: .267/.330/.435, 14 HR, 46 R, 52 RBI, 1 SB in 386 AB

2015 stats: .268/.340/.485, 12 HR, 31 R, 41 RBI, 0 SB in 239 AB

 

It’s going to be impossible to leave d’Arnaud out of the top 10 next year, but he’ll have the lowest at-bat projection of the group. He just seems like such a weak bet to stay healthy.

 

13. Yasmani Grandal - Dodgers

Projection: .245/.353/.425, 15 HR, 47 R, 52 RBI, 1 SB in 386 AB

2015 stats: .234/.353/.403, 16 HR, 43 R, 47 RBI, 0 SB in 355 AB

 

Grandal will be in the top 10 for sure, even though he collapsed due to shoulder issues during the final two months of this year. Actually, collapse hardly does it justice; he hit .065 in 92 at-bats after Aug. 7 (he was hitting .295/.400/.513 with 15 homers in 261 at-bats up until then).

 

14. Mike Zunino - Mariners

Projection: .225/.293/.416, 19 HR, 50 R, 57 RBI, 1 SB in 413 AB

2015 stats: .174/.230/.300, 11 HR, 28 R, 28 RBI, 0 SB in 350 AB

 

19. Derek Norris - Padres

Projection: .234/.337/.375, 11 HR, 43 R, 44 RBI, 4 SB in 389 AB

2015 stats: .250/.305/.404, 14 HR, 65 R, 62 RBI, 4 SB in 515 AB

 

26. Francisco Cervelli - Pirates

Projection: .265/.339/.360, 6 HR, 38 R, 40 RBI, 1 SB in 389 AB

2015 stats: .295/.370/.401, 7 HR, 56 R, 43 RBI, 1 SB in 451 AB

 

31. Blake Swihart - Red Sox

Projection: .243/.283/.376, 6 HR, 28 R, 29 RBI, 2 SB in 255 AB

2015 stats: .274/.319/.392, 5 HR, 47 R, 31 RBI, 4 SB in 288 AB

 

Swihart hit .303/.353/.452 in 155 at-bats after returning from a sprained foot in July. It looks like he’ll have to be Boston’s starting catcher, even if Christian Vazquez is ready to go on Opening Day following Tommy John surgery.

 

36. Dioner Navarro - Blue Jays

Projection: .254/.306/.378, 5 HR, 21 R, 22 RBI, 1 SB in 185 AB

2015 stats: .246/.307/.374, 5 HR, 17 R, 20 RBI, 0 SB in 171 AB

 

38. Ryan Hanigan - Red Sox

Projection: .243/.337/.327, 3 HR, 24 R, 22 RBI, 0 SB in 226 AB

2015 stats: .247/.337/.328, 2 HR, 28 R, 16 RBI, 0 SB in 174 AB

 

I had to throw in my two best backup catcher projections.

 

41. A.J. Pierzynski - Braves

Projection: .258/.298/.347, 4 HR, 17 R, 22 RBI, 0 SB in 213 AB

2015 stats: .300/.339/.430, 9 HR, 38 R, 49 RBI, 0 SB in 407 AB

 

165 OF. Kyle Schwarber - Cubs

Projection: .238/.319/.385, 4 HR, 15 R, 15 RBI, 2 SB in 122 AB

2015 stats: .246/.355/.487, 16 HR, 52 R, 43 RBI, 3 SB in 232 AB

 

The great news was that Schwarber eked out 20-game catcher eligibility down the stretch. If he’s penciled in to start in left field, he’ll be my No. 2 catcher behind Posey in the preseason projections.

 

First basemen

 

1. Miguel Cabrera - Tigers

Projection: .311/.377/.539, 32 HR, 98 R, 114 RBI, 1 SB in 570 AB

2015 stats: .338/.440/.534, 18 HR, 64 R, 76 RBI, 1 SB in 429 AB

 

2. Jose Abreu - White Sox

Projection: .296/.368/.523, 33 HR, 96 R, 118 RBI, 2 SB in 598 AB

2015 stats: .290/.347/.502, 30 HR, 88 R, 101 RBI, 0 SB in 613 AB

 

Abreu came close to meeting expectations. Too bad Adam LaRoche behind him and the White Sox’s No. 2 hitters ahead of him were disasters.

 

3. Edwin Encarnacion - Blue Jays

Projection: .283/.366/.544, 37 HR, 94 R, 118 RBI, 4 SB in 555 AB

2015 stats: .277/.372/.557, 39 HR, 94 R, 111 RBI, 3 SB in 528 AB

 

4. Paul Goldschmidt - Diamondbacks

Projection: .286/.393/.518, 30 HR, 98 R, 96 RBI, 11 SB in 569 AB

2015 stats: .321/.435/.570, 33 HR, 103 R, 110 RBI, 21 SB in 567 AB

 

I underestimated the Diamondbacks’ lineup on the whole, but I was also a little down on Goldschmidt after the jump in his strikeout rate in 2014. He brought it back down some this year and hit .382 on balls in play (up from .343 in 2013 and .368 in 2014).

 

5. Prince Fielder - Rangers

Projection: .274/.377/.497, 32 HR, 85 R, 104 RBI, 0 SB in 563 AB

2015 stats: .305/.378/.463, 23 HR, 78 R, 98 RBI, 0 SB in 613 AB

 

It wasn’t exactly the Fielder of old, but no one is complaining. It’s still well worth noting that Fielder posted the lowest slugging percentage of his career to go along with his second highest average. Trading power for singles seemed like a conscious decision on his part following his neck surgery.

 

6. Albert Pujols - Angels

Projection: .284/.349/.469, 25 HR, 86 R, 102 RBI, 3 SB in 589 AB

2015 stats: .244/.307/.480, 40 HR, 85 R, 95 RBI, 5 SB in 602 AB

 

Pujols’ worst average as a Cardinal was .312. His worst OBP was .394. Obviously, he’s not that player any longer. He came through with 40 homers this year and was a fine fantasy first baseman because of it, but I’m not quite sure what to think about him for 2016. The weird thing about the collapse in his batting average is that his strikeout rate remains terrific (72 K’s in 661 plate appearances this year).

 

7. Anthony Rizzo - Cubs

Projection: .272/.379/.479, 28 HR, 95 R, 93 RBI, 4 SB in 580 AB

2015 stats: .278/.387/.512, 31 HR, 94 R, 101 RBI, 17 SB in 586 AB

 

I certainly didn’t see the 17 steals coming. Rizzo was 6-for-11 and 5-for-9 in his previous two full seasons. If anything, it seemed like he’d run less, given his current status as a star and the previous poor success rate.

 

8. Adrian Gonzalez - Dodgers

Projection: .282/.338/.458, 24 HR, 86 R, 104 RBI, 0 SB in 609 AB

2015 stats: .275/.350/.480, 28 HR, 76 R, 90 RBI, 0 SB in 571 AB

 

This one is kind of disappointing, if only because Gonzalez had like 40 RBI a week into the season.

 

9. Freddie Freeman - Braves

Projection: .277/.376/.472, 24 HR, 81 R, 84 RBI, 3 SB in 563 AB

2015 stats: .276/.370/.471, 18 HR, 62 R, 66 RBI, 3 SB in 416 AB

 

Freeman was at the very top of my avoid list this year. He might not be such a poor pick next year, even though the Braves offense still figures to be pretty bad.

 

10. Victor Martinez - Tigers

Projection: .303/.367/.457, 18 HR, 71 R, 89 RBI, 1 SB in 554 AB

2015 stats: .245/.301/.366, 11 HR, 39 R, 64 RBI, 0 SB in 440 AB

 

Others

 

11. Joey Votto - Reds

Projection: .291/.430/.470, 20 HR, 85 R, 77 RBI, 2 SB in 532 AB

2015 stats: .314/.459/.541, 29 HR, 95 R, 80 RBI, 11 SB in 545 AB

 

29 homers. Hit .329 and slugged .595 with men on. 80 RBI. At least it made my projection look less bad.

 

12. Eric Hosmer - Royals

Projection: .281/.335/.431, 17 HR, 76 R, 84 RBI, 5 SB in 601 AB

2015 stats: .297/.363/.459, 18 HR, 98 R, 93 RBI, 7 SB in 599 AB

 

1 DH. David Ortiz - Red Sox

Projection: .273/.361/.481, 25 HR, 75 R, 93 RBI, 0 SB in 501 AB

2015 stats: .273/.360/.553, 37 HR, 73 R, 108 RBI, 0 SB in 528 AB

 

2 DH. Chris Carter - Astros

Projection: .232/.321/.473, 33 HR, 76 R, 100 RBI, 3 SB in 535 AB

2015 stats: .199/.307/.427, 24 HR, 50 R, 64 RBI, 1 SB in 391 AB

 

14. Lucas Duda - Mets

Projection: .245/.338/.464, 29 HR, 76 R, 89 RBI, 2 SB in 511 AB

2015 stats: .244/.352/.486, 27 HR, 67 R, 73 RBI, 0 SB in 471 AB

 

16. Joe Mauer - Twins

Projection: .306/.393/.434, 10 HR, 75 R, 74 RBI, 4 SB in 542 AB

2015 stats: .265/.338/.380, 10 HR, 69 R, 66 RBI, 2 SB in 592 AB

 

Mauer’s power came back a bit after his poor first year at first base. His strikeout rate went down slightly. Still, he wasn’t any good, not while hitting .265. It doesn’t seem like he was unlucky, either. I won’t be projecting him to hit .300 again.

 

17. Adam LaRoche - White Sox

Projection: .247/.334/.460, 28 HR, 73 R, 87 RBI, 1 SB in 506 AB

2015 stats: .207/.293/.340, 12 HR, 41 R, 44 RBI, 0 SB in 429 AB

 

20. Adam Lind - Blue Jays

Projection: .273/.338/.462, 21 HR, 64 R, 76 RBI, 0 SB in 519 AB

2015 stats: .277/.360/.460, 20 HR, 72 R, 87 RBI, 0 SB in 502 AB

 

24. Kendrys Morales - Royals

Projection: .258/.309/.424, 19 HR, 61 R, 76 RBI, 0 SB in 519 AB

2015 stats: .290/.362/.485, 22 HR, 81 R, 106 RBI, 0 SB in 569 AB

 

I didn’t buy that Morales’s 2014 struggles were all about his missing spring training and getting a late start. But he didn’t just bounce back in 2015, he posted the second-best season of his career, six years after the best. His .847 OPS was 60 points higher than his career mark or his marks from full seasons in 2012 and 2013.

 

25. Ryan Howard - Phillies

Projection: .234/.315/.409, 22 HR, 60 R, 81 RBI, 0 SB in 492 AB

2015 stats: .229/.277/.443, 23 HR, 53 R, 77 RBI, 0 SB in 467 AB

 

28. Mark Teixeira - Yankees

Projection: .224/.322/.412, 20 HR, 58 R, 63 RBI, 1 SB in 415 AB

2015 stats: .255/.357/.548, 31 HR, 57 R, 79 RBI, 2 SB in 392 AB

 

29. Steve Pearce - Orioles

Projection: .245/.325/.407, 15 HR, 56 R, 52 RBI, 3 SB in 408 AB

2015 stats: .218/.289/.422, 15 HR, 42 R, 40 RBI, 1 SB in 294 AB

 

We got an email in March from someone who wanted a refund on the Rotoworld Draft Guide all because Pearce wasn’t in the top 300.

 

34. C.J. Cron - Angels

Projection: .253/.294/.429, 13 HR, 43 R, 51 RBI, 2 SB in 336 AB

2015 stats: .262/.300/.439, 16 HR, 37 R, 51 RBI, 3 SB in 378 AB

 

35. Mitch Moreland - Rangers

Projection: .239/.299/.393, 12 HR, 40 R, 46 RBI, 0 SB in 331 AB

2015 stats: .278/.330/.482, 23 HR, 51 R, 85 RBI, 1 SB in 471 AB

 

I thought the Rangers would be better off playing Kyle Blanks. Whoops.

 

48. Justin Bour - Marlins

Projection: .244/.310/.374, 3 HR, 13 R, 15 RBI, 1 SB in 145 AB

2015 stats: .262/.321/.479, 23 HR, 42 R, 73 RBI, 0 SB in 409 AB

 

Second basemen

 

1. Jose Altuve - Astros

Projection: .302/.342/.408, 8 HR, 85 R, 66 RBI, 36 SB in 639 AB

2015 stats: .313/.353/.459, 15 HR, 86 R, 66 RBI, 38 SB in 638 AB

 

I was projecting a new career high in homers for Altuve. He just went a little higher (he hit seven in 2012 and 2014). It’s actually rather disappointing that he scored only 86 runs, considering that he drove himself in 15 times. Houston’s improving offense should lead to better run and RBI totals next year.

 

2. Robinson Cano - Mariners

Projection: .301/.374/.477, 21 HR, 84 R, 90 RBI, 5 SB in 585 AB

2015 stats: .287/.334/.446, 21 HR, 82 R, 79 RBI, 2 SB in 624 AB

 

As hard as it might have been to believe on July 1, Cano successfully salvaged his season. He hit .238/.277/.344 in the first three months and .330/.383/.536 with 17 homers in the last three.

 

3. Dee Gordon - Marlins

Projection: .271/.315/.357, 1 HR, 87 R, 37 RBI, 61 SB in 652 AB

2015 stats: .333/.359/.418, 4 HR, 88 R, 46 RBI, 58 SB in 615 AB

 

4. Anthony Rendon - Nationals

Projection: .302/.372/.472, 15 HR, 83 R, 62 RBI, 9 SB in 496 AB

2015 stats: .264/.344/.363, 5 HR, 43 R, 25 RBI, 1 SB in 311 AB

 

5. Kolten Wong - Cardinals

Projection: .288/.338/.449, 16 HR, 73 R, 67 RBI, 22 SB in 521 AB

2015 stats: .262/.321/.386, 11 HR, 71 R, 61 RBI, 15 SB in 557 AB

 

It looked like my aggressive Wong projection would pan out when he hit .289/.346/.464 with nine homers in the first three months. However, he was bad enough afterwards that he was fortunate not to lose his starting job. I still think he’s capable of some .290-20 HR seasons.

 

6. Jason Kipnis - Indians

Projection: .273/.351/.412, 14 HR, 83 R, 65 RBI, 23 SB in 549 AB

2015 stats: .303/.372/.451, 9 HR, 86 R, 52 RBI, 12 SB in 565 AB

 

Terrific start, very good season, kinda disappointing fantasy numbers.

 

7. Dustin Pedroia - Red Sox

Projection: .286/.356/.415, 12 HR, 87 R, 68 RBI, 10 SB in 569 AB

2015 stats: .291/.356/.441, 12 HR, 46 R, 42 RBI, 2 SB in 381 AB

 

8. Howie Kendrick - Dodgers

Projection: .288/.331/.430, 15 HR, 70 R, 74 RBI, 12 SB in 542 AB

2015 stats: .295/.336/.409, 9 HR, 64 R, 54 RBI, 6 SB in 464 AB

 

9. Brian Dozier - Twins

Projection: .253/.336/.408, 17 HR, 90 R, 71 RBI, 14 SB in 574 AB

2015 stats: .236/.307/.444, 28 HR, 101 R, 77 RBI, 12 SB in 628 AB

 

Dozier was the talk of baseball around the All-Star break. He hit .210/.280/.359 with nine homers, 34 runs scored, 27 RBI and three steals in 69 games afterwards.

 

10. Ian Kinsler - Tigers

Projection: .269/.333/.412, 15 HR, 88 R, 66 RBI, 12 SB in 592 AB

2015 stats: .296/.342/.428, 11 HR, 94 R, 73 RBI, 10 SB in 624 AB

 

Others

 

11. Rougned Odor - Rangers

Projection: .263/.310/.407, 13 HR, 69 R, 62 RBI, 17 SB in 528 AB

2015 stats: .261/.316/.465, 16 HR, 54 R, 61 RBI, 6 SB in 426 AB

 

As anyone watching the ALDS can attest, Odor has the speed to swipe 20-30 bases next year if he wants to. Unfortunately, with the way he’s stealing the show, he’s not going to be as undervalued on draft day as I was hoping.

 

13. Neil Walker - Pirates

Projection: .263/.329/.418, 16 HR, 64 R, 74 RBI, 3 SB in 509 AB

2015 stats: .269/.328/.427, 16 HR, 69 R, 71 RBI, 4 SB in 543 AB

 

14. Brandon Phillips - Reds

Projection: .256/.300/.386, 15 HR, 69 R, 74 RBI, 5 SB in 567 AB

2015 stats: .284/.328/.395, 12 HR, 69 R, 70 RBI, 23 SB in 588 AB

 

15. Daniel Murphy - Mets

Projection: .281/.325/.406, 11 HR, 59 R, 61 RBI, 10 SB in 520 AB

2015 stats: .281/.322/.449, 14 HR, 56 R, 73 RBI, 2 SB in 499 AB

 

16. Chase Utley - Phillies/Dodgers

Projection: .262/.351/.417, 14 HR, 65 R, 62 RBI, 8 SB in 470 AB

2015 stats: .212/.286/.343, 8 HR, 37 R, 39 RBI, 4 SB in 373 AB

 

17. Martin Prado - Marlins

Projection: .288/.332/.405, 8 HR, 64 R, 63 RBI, 3 SB in 560 AB

2015 stats: .288/.338/.394, 9 HR, 52 R, 63 RBI, 1 SB in 500 AB

 

18. Brett Lawrie - Athletics

Projection: .253/.313/.423, 16 HR, 63 R, 63 RBI, 7 SB in 470 AB

2015 stats: .260/.299/.407, 16 HR, 64 R, 60 RBI, 5 SB in 562 AB

 

22. Marcus Semien - Athletics

Projection: .240/.314/.382, 13 HR, 66 R, 58 RBI, 12 SB in 513 AB

2015 stats: .257/.310/.405, 15 HR, 65 R, 45 RBI, 11 SB in 556 AB

 

23. Joe Panik - Giants

Projection: .274/.321/.357, 5 HR, 70 R, 44 RBI, 6 SB in 555 AB

2015 stats: .312/.378/.455, 8 HR, 59 R, 37 RBI, 3 SB in 382 AB

 

25, D.J. LeMahieu - Rockies

Projection: .272/.324/.374, 6 HR, 54 R, 47 RBI, 11 SB in 470 AB

2015 stats: .301/.358/.388, 6 HR, 85 R, 61 RBI, 23 SB in 564 AB

 

29. Odubel Herrera - Phillies

Projection: .249/.294/.314, 2 HR, 48 R, 30 RBI, 24 SB in 462 AB

2015 stats: .297/.344/.418, 8 HR, 64 R, 41 RBI, 16 SB in 495 AB

 

Herrera was a much better hitter than I thought he’d be, but where did the steals go? He was 7-for-7 stealing bases in 70 at-bats during the spring. If he kept running like that, he would have been a mixed-league guy.

 

30. Logan Forsythe - Rays

Projection: .252/.318/.392, 9 HR, 40 R, 37 RBI, 7 SB in 329 AB

2015 stats: .281/.359/.444, 17 HR, 69 R, 68 RBI, 9 SB in 540 AB

 

47. Matt Duffy - Giants

Projection: .254/.313/.352, 2 HR, 24 R, 15 RBI, 8 SB in 193 AB

2015 stats: .295/.334/.428, 12 HR, 77 R, 77 RBI, 12 SB in 573 AB

 

Third basemen

 

1. Nolan Arenado - Rockies

Projection: .306/.351/.509, 23 HR, 85 R, 100 RBI, 2 SB in 578 AB

2015 stats: .287/.323/.575, 42 HR, 97 R, 130 RBI, 2 SB in 616 AB

 

The chance I took in ranking Arenado first at third base paid off (even if Donaldson and Machado edged him out in value). Still, I certainly wasn’t expecting 42 homers. I thought he might contend for the batting crown, not the home run and RBI titles.

 

2. Josh Donaldson - Blue Jays

Projection: .257/.350/.487, 31 HR, 87 R, 103 RBI, 6 SB in 556 AB

2015 stats: .297/.371/.568, 41 HR, 122 R, 123 RBI, 6 SB in 620 AB

 

With the Jays sounding so committed to batting Russell Martin second, I figured Donaldson would spend the season hitting fifth for the most part. Obviously, that didn’t happen. I still would have been well under if it had.

 

3. Adrian Beltre - Rangers

Projection: .295/.353/.472, 23 HR, 79 R, 93 RBI, 2 SB in 570 AB

2015 stats: .287/.334/.453, 18 HR, 83 R, 83 RBI, 1 SB in 567 AB

 

4. Chris Davis - Orioles

Projection: .242/.325/.469, 33 HR, 84 R, 103 RBI, 2 SB in 574 AB

2015 stats: .262/.361/.562, 47 HR, 100 R, 117 RBI, 2 SB in 573 AB

 

5. Carlos Santana - Indians

Projection: .265/.385/.464, 25 HR, 80 R, 91 RBI, 4 SB in 550 AB

2015 stats: .231/.357/.395, 19 HR, 72 R, 85 RBI, 11 SB in 550 AB

 

6. Evan Longoria - Rays

Projection: .261/.343/.463, 26 HR, 80 R, 93 RBI, 3 SB in 566 AB

2015 stats: .270/.328/.435, 21 HR, 74 R, 73 RBI, 3 SB in 604 AB

 

7. David Wright - Mets

Projection: .282/.359/.455, 20 HR, 78 R, 78 RBI, 9 SB in 532 AB

2015 stats: .289/.379/.434, 5 HR, 24 R, 17 RBI, 2 SB in 152 AB

 

8. Todd Frazier - Reds

Projection: .257/.327/.451, 25 HR, 73 R, 89 RBI, 12 SB in 552 AB

2015 stats: .255/.309/.498, 35 HR, 82 R, 89 RBI, 13 SB in 619 AB

 

I would have projected Frazier for quite a bit more than 89 RBI had I known he was going to be hitting 35 homers. Unfortunately, 23 of those were solo shots. He slugged .542 with the bases empty, .450 with men on and .414 with RISP.

 

9. Manny Machado - Orioles

Projection: .288/.327/.467, 20 HR, 79 R, 75 RBI, 7 SB in 535 AB

2015 stats: .286/.359/.502, 35 HR, 102 R, 86 RBI, 20 SB in 633 AB

 

I had Machado sixth when I submitted my draft guide projections in January. He later fell to ninth after the Orioles decided to start him out in the sixth spot in the lineup. Fortunately, Machado was way too good for that to last.

 

10. Kyle Seager - Mariners

Projection: .276/.357/.455, 21 HR, 76 R, 84 RBI, 7 SB in 561 AB

2015 stats: .266/.328/.451, 26 HR, 85 R, 74 RBI, 6 SB in 623 AB

 

Others

 

12. Kris Bryant - Cubs

Projection: .251/.348/.487, 28 HR, 70 R, 83 RBI, 6 SB in 466 AB

2015 stats: .275/.369/.488, 26 HR, 87 R, 99 RBI, 13 SB in 559 AB

 

I projected Bryant to strike out 30.3 percent of the time. He finished at 30.6. But then I projected Bryant to finish with a .321 BABIP. He came in at .378, the fifth-highest mark of anyone to qualify for the batting title. Everyone else in the top 10 in BABIP finished with at least a .297 average. Bryant, because of the huge strikeout rate, came in at .275.

 

13. Matt Carpenter - Cardinals

Projection: .286/.368/.420, 13 HR, 97 R, 65 RBI, 4 SB in 605 AB

2015 stats: .272/.365/.505, 28 HR, 101 R, 84 RBI, 4 SB in 574 AB

 

Projecting 13 homers for Carpenter actually seemed aggressive back in the spring; he hit 11 in 2013 and eight last year. Oh well.

 

14. Pablo Sandoval - Red Sox

Projection: .290/.347/.462, 17 HR, 73 R, 84 RBI, 1 SB in 535 AB

2015 stats: .245/.292/.366, 10 HR, 43 R, 47 RBI, 0 SB in 470 AB

 

15. Pedro Alvarez - Pirates

Projection: .252/.321/.485, 28 HR, 64 R, 84 RBI, 4 SB in 472 AB

2015 stats: .243/.318/.469, 27 HR, 60 R, 77 RBI, 2 SB in 437 AB

 

20. Mike Moustakas - Royals

Projection: .257/.309/.433, 22 HR, 70 R, 76 RBI, 3 SB in 538 AB

2015 stats: .284/.348/.470, 22 HR, 73 R, 82 RBI, 1 SB in 549 AB

 

22. Alex Rodriguez - Yankees

Projection: .240/.348/.416, 21 HR, 66 R, 71 RBI, 6 SB in 462 AB

2015 stats: .250/.356/.486, 33 HR, 83 R, 86 RBI, 4 SB in 523 AB

 

31. Maikel Franco - Phillies

Projection: .263/.304/.439, 13 HR, 41 R, 50 RBI, 1 SB in 353 AB

2015 stats: .280/.343/.497, 14 HR, 45 R, 50 RBI, 1 SB in 304 AB

 

53. Miguel Sano - Twins

Projection: .208/.315/.364, 3 HR, 9 R, 10 RBI, 1 SB in 77 AB

2015 stats: .269/.385/.530, 18 HR, 46 R, 52 RBI, 1 SB in 279 AB

Matthew Pouliot
Matthew Pouliot is the Executive Editor of RotoWorld.com and has been doing the site's baseball projections for the last 10 years. Follow him on Twitter @matthewpouliot.