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Top Props

Primetime Props: Bills at 49ers

by Kyle Dvorchak
Updated On: December 7, 2020, 10:38 am ET

If fretting wagering on NFL spreads — historically the sharpest lines available at any book — props can be an intriguing and outright fun way to have an invested incentive in a player’s performance each and every week. This ongoing series will be a weekly feature outlining my favorite player props for MNF and the bonus game before MNF when it's available, including the five detailed below. All props and odds have been sourced accordingly and tracked for accountability at the bottom of every write-up.

 

 

Ben Roethlisberger UNDER 282.5 Passing Yards (-112) BetMGM Sportsbook

 

Roethlisberger is currently averaging 254.5 passing yards per game and has topped this prop just three times in 11 games this year. His matchup this week shouldn't elevate the line either. Washington is allowing the second-fewest passing yards per game in 2020. Their monstrous defensive front is generating 3.3 sacks per game, second only to Pittsburgh. This game has a 43.5-point total and the line is not in the same area code as the expectation for Roethlisberger, even in a good game environment.

 

Alex Smith OVER 216.5 Passing Yards (-115) Pointsbet Sportsbook

 

On the other side of the ball, Alex Smith stepped in as the starting passer when Kyle Allen went down in the first quarter of Week 9. Including that game, he has topped this line twice. Both games were losses and the two games he failed to beat 216 passing yards were Washington wins. Smith threw 87 passes in the two losses and 51 passes in the pair of wins. Washington coach Ron Rivera knows that he needs to be aggressive when playing from behind. As 6.5-point dogs this week, expect smith to near 40 passes. Even with middling efficiency, that would likely see him hit the over

 

Raheem Mostert OVER 11.5 Receiving Yards (-110) William Hill Sportsbook

 

Mostert isn't known as much of a receiving back but his numbers in the passing game have been promising this year. He's averaging 2.6 receptions for 30 receiving yards. He logged a career-high in receptions in the 49ers' loss to Arizona. Then, in Week 5, he caught three passes. That's his third-best game ever by total receptions. He hasn't caught fewer than two passes in a game this year and his career yards per reception is 10.8. 

 

Devin Singletary UNDER 36.5 Rushing Yards (-112) DraftKings Sportsbook

 

Singletary hit 82 yards on 11 carries last week but it was just the second time in the past five weeks that he had seen double-digit carries or topped this rushing line. His problem is that he is on the wrong side of a committee for a team that doesn't want to run the football. Over the past five weeks, Zack Moss is averaging 9.2 carries to Singletary's 7.8 totes per game. Entering Week 13, only one team had called fewer rushing plays for their running backs than the Bills. 

 

Antonio Gibson OVER 45.5 Rushing Yards (-112) BetMGM Sportsbook

 

This line would be perfect for Gibson if he were guaranteed to lose in dramatic fashion. In losses this year, he has averaged 38.9 rushing yards and Washington's margin of defeat has been ten points. He has hit this prop in three of seven losses. However, Pointsbet Sportsbook has the money line at +235. That gives Washington nearly a 30% chance to win this game. If they do, Gibson is incredibly likely to hit this prop. He has topped 90 yards in each of Washington's previous three wins. If they don't win, he still has a decent chance of hitting as well.

 

Last Week: 2-3, -1.2 Units

Season: 29-23, +3.3 Units

Kyle Dvorchak

Kyle Dvorchak is a writer for NBC Sports Edge and half of the other sites on the internet. He loves most Big 12 quarterbacks, misses the XFL and can be found on @kyletweetshere.