If fretting wagering on NFL spreads — historically the sharpest lines available at any book — props can be an intriguing and outright fun way to have skin in the game for a player’s performance each and every week. This ongoing series will be a weekly feature outlining my favorite player props for TNF, including the six detailed below. All props and odds have been sourced accordingly and tracked for accountability at the bottom of every write-up.
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Hunter Henry OVER 45.5 Receiving Yards (-115) — PointsBet Sportsbook
As you’ll notice, all five of the props discussed here are prime to pounce on due to an absence (or two) on both sides of the ball. Henry for instance has jarring splits in seven career games without Mike Williams (back, out), averaging 4.5 catches and 53.5 receiving yards in said situations. Las Vegas’ injury-riddled defense with four starters sidelined — Johnathan Abram, Damon Arnette, Clelin Ferrell, Nicholas Morrow — only helps matters.
Bryan Edwards OVER 10.5 Receiving Yards (-115) — PointsBet Sportsbook
Edwards has been a non-factor with Nelson Agholor emerging across from Henry Ruggs (COVID). But the latter’s absence this evening suddenly pins Edwards onto the boundary in three-wide sets since Hunter Renfrow has manned the slot for a team-high 65% of his routes in the two games Ruggs missed earlier this year. Edwards’ impact is questionable, but his proven downfield chops with 16.3 yards per reception on only 12 targets makes this one easily surpassable on a single throw.
Keenan Allen UNDER 7.5 Receptions (-112) — DraftKings Sportsbook
Ideally Allen is active, because he’s never reaching this number if Adam Schefter’s reports of being “limited” are true. It’s a win-win: either Allen is scratched, forfeiting this bet altogether, or he gives it a go and ultimately musters a few snaps. I would be more than willing to upgrade this one to a 2-3 unit wager.
Jalen Guyton OVER 29.5 Receiving Yards (-115) — PointsBet Sportsbook
Be sure and shop around for this number as it could differ at local sportsbooks. Either way, Guyton is fully expected to play his usual sub-80% of Los Angeles’ snaps with far more opportunity to go around with Williams and Allen laid up. Much like Edwards, Guyton too has proven to be a deep threat this year, popping for 17.9 yards per catch on 40 targets. We should expect him to get a handful of chances to get there within the first three quarters since Williams vacates a team-high 85.7 air yards per game.
Nelson Agholor OVER 54.5 Receiving Yards (-115) — PointsBet Sportsbook
Agholor has averaged 56.1 yards per game since taking over for Edwards in Week 4 and slightly more (57.2) even with Ruggs at full health since Week 9. With Las Vegas’ games averaging a combined 57 points on the year and, more recently, 37.5 to opponents over the last month, Carr will have no choice but to dropback and launch the ball towards Agholor, who still leads the team in air yards (541) and end zone targets (7) over the last month.
Last Week: 2-1, +2.8 Units
Season: 20-22, +14.9 Units