If fretting wagering on NFL spreads — historically the sharpest lines available at any book — props can be an intriguing and outright fun way to have an invested incentive in a player’s performance each and every week. This ongoing series will be a weekly feature outlining my favorite player props for TNF, including the six detailed below. All props and odds have been sourced accordingly and tracked for accountability at the bottom of every write-up.
Gardner Minshew OVER 18.5 Fantasy Points (-115) — PointsBet Sportsbook
Minshew has scored 20.8 and 23.5 fantasy points in his first two games engineering OC Jay Gruden’s quick-release scheme. With the Dolphins struggling to pressure opposing quarterbacks (18.6%, 23rd) in the slightest, Thursday arguably make for Minshew’s softest test to date. Jacksonville’s implied team total has quietly increased over a field goal from 22.75 to 26 since initially opening, which paints a terrific picture for Mustache Mania’s outlook as our composite QB12.
Myles Gaskin OVER 23.5 Receiving Yards (-112) — DraftKings Sportsbook
Myles Gaskin UNDER 39.5 Receiving Yards (-115) — PointsBet Sportsbook
Jacksonville didn’t allow a single catch to Tennessee’s running backs room only one week after permitting 17 to Philip Rivers and the Colts. Gaskin has inarguably been Miami’s lead back, out-carrying Jordan Howard 16 to 13 and running 41 more routes than Matt Breida (54 to 13) to date, but this prop is one that Gaskin has yet to eclipse on a similar workload in back-to-back weeks. In betting both (wherever applicable), we’re giving ourselves a wide range to ‘middle’ this wager and kill two birds with one stone.
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Preston Williams OVER 44.5 Receiving Yards (-115) — PointsBet Sportsbook
All Williams has done through two games is lead his own team in targets (7) and air yards (104) in Week 1 then get bodied by All-Pro Tre’Davious White for a single 26-yard reception the following game. The Jaguars have allowed the 10th-fewest fantasy points to opposing wideouts on the surface but have only faced the eighth-fewest targets (36) to that position. With the fourth-lowest blitz rate among defenses, Ryan Fitzpatrick should have no trouble finding his receivers (and Williams in particular) against Jacksonville’s three-man rush.
Laviska Shenault OVER 2.5 Receptions (-139) — DraftKings Sportsbook
Laviska Shenault OVER 33.5 Receiving Yards (-133) — DraftKings Sportsbook
Odds are both of these increase at your local book before kick-off, but we should be comfortable taking anything up to 4.5 Receptions and 39.5 Receiving Yards now that D.J. Chark (chest, back) has been ruled out. Squaring off against Miami’s undermanned secondary sans Byron Jones (groin) makes this matchup a potential eruption spot for Shenault, who has toppled both of his aforementioned props in Jacksonville’s first two games despite playing alongside Chark, who has led the team’s receivers room with 101 snaps (81%), the entire time. Shenault is currently tied with Chris Conley for the second-highest target share (12.5%) among Jacksonville’s wideouts.
Last Week: 1-2, +0.8 Units
Season: 4-6, +3.3 Units