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Top Props

Primetime Props: Ravens at Browns

by Kyle Dvorchak
Updated On: December 14, 2020, 11:15 am ET

If fretting wagering on NFL spreads — historically the sharpest lines available at any book — props can be an intriguing and outright fun way to have an invested incentive in a player’s performance each and every week. This ongoing series will be a weekly feature outlining my favorite player props for MNF and the bonus game before MNF when it's available, including the five detailed below. All props and odds have been sourced accordingly and tracked for accountability at the bottom of every write-up.

Donovan Peoples-Jones UNDER 23.5 Receiving Yards (-115) — William Hill Sportsbook

Rashard Higgins OVER 38.5 Receiving Yards (-110) — BetMGM Sportsbook

 

Odell Beckham went down at the start of Week 7. Since then, Higgins has dominated the receiving work that doesn’t find its way to Jarvis Landry. He has a 19 percent target share and a 31 percent air yards share over the Browns’ previous six games. In that same span, Peoples-Jones has a six percent target share and a 12 percent air yards share. He ran 20 routes compared to Higgins’ team-high 30 routes. These two lines are set as if Higgins and Peoples-Jones are competing for the No. 2 role. Higgins has had that job locked up for weeks while Peoples-Jones could go out and catch zero of two targets.

 

Mark Ingram OVER 19.5 Rushing Yards (-115) — Williams Hill Sportsbook

In Weeks 10 and 11, Ingram logged seven carries for as many yards. After missing a week while on the reserve/COVID-19 list, he returned last week and saw six carries which he turned into 28 yards. Before Week 10 he was averaging 8.3 carries for 37.5 yards. It’s clear that Ingrams’ role is declining but this line is so low that Ingram only needs to take the field for a handful of snaps to go over it. Betting the over is simply a bet that he hasn’t been completely phased out of the offense yet.

 

Lamar Jackson OVER 20.5 Fantasy Points (-111) — PointsBet SportsBook

For fantasy managers, Jackson has undoubtedly had a disappointing year compared to what he cost to acquire in drafts. He has still been an elite fantasy option though. He’s the QB9 in points per game at 20.3. Jackson has gone over 20.5 points in five of 11 games this year and a matchup with the Browns is the final push he needs to top his prop once again. Cleveland is allowing the seventh-most passing yards per game this year. They’ll also be without top corner, Denzel Ward, this week.

 

Baker Mayfield UNDER 18.5 Completions (+105) — BetMGM Sportsbook

 

Mayfield has gone under this line in exactly half of his games this year. His average number of completions per game is 17.1. There’s a clear delineation between his high-completion games and his low-completion games. In the contests where he has connected on 19 or more passes, the game total has ended at a staggering average of 64.2 points. His under games finish with an average of 40.3 points. The total of this game currently sits 45.5.

 

 

Last Week: 1-4, -3.1 Units

Season: 30-27, +.2 Units

Kyle Dvorchak

Kyle Dvorchak is a writer for Rotoworld and half of the other sites on the internet. He loves most Big 12 quarterbacks, misses the XFL and can be found on @kyletweetshere.