Welcome to the Sunday Prop Shop.
Every weekend, we'll dive inside the thousands of NFL props from our friends over at PointsBet Sportsbook. All prop bets will be tracked for accountability at the bottom of every write-up. Let's go.
Josh Allen OVER 308.5 Passing Yards (-106)
Allen has been great this year but he becomes a machine in shootouts. In games with final totals over 50 points, Allen has posted 325.8 yards per game. In games below that number, he averages just 227 yards. His game with the Chiefs has a total that currently sits at 54 points. That is four points ahead of where the line opened at. In a contest that Vegas expects to be a back-and-forth affair, expect a massive outing from Allen.
Allen Lazard UNDER 47.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
After one successful game, it's time to sell high on Lazard. Last week, Lazard popped up with 96 yards on eight targets and scored once. It was his second-best game of the year. Across the 11 games he has played this year, Lazard has topped 47.5 receiving yards five times. Since returning to the field from IR in Week 10, Lazard has averaged just 36.6 yards per game.
Tyreek Hill OVER 76.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
This line is just surprisingly low for someone with Hill's talents. This year, including his first playoff game, Hill is averaging 86.6 receiving yards per week. His numbers become mind-bending when the Chiefs play in close games. In matches decided by seven or fewer points, Hill has posted 105.3 yards per game. When the Chiefs beat their opponent by more than a touchdown, Hill's average drops to 62.6 yards. In a game with a three-point spread, Hill is a strong bet to push for 100 yards.
Tyler Johnson Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+600)
Betting Johnson to score is simply a play to capture some closing line value. Antonio Brown has yet to practice (as of Thursday) and coach Bruce Arians stated that he'll be a game-time decision. If he doesn't play, one of Johnson or Scott Miller will be in line for a large role as Tom Brady's No. 3 receiver. Johnson played on 21 percent of the Bucs' snaps last week while Miller was at just 11 percent. He also ran more routes. If Brown is announced out, these odds likely jump significantly.
Devin Singletary Over 39.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Singletary busted last week but there were a number of positive indicators. He played on 84 percent of the team's snaps and saw 77.7 percent of Buffalo's running back carries. Backup T.J. Yeldon accounted for just two rushes, both of which came on the Bills' final drive when they were winning by two scores. If Singletary's market share numbers hold, the AFC Championship should be a rebound spot for him. The Bills ran the ball 18.1 times per game with running backs. His share from last week would be over 14 carries. Even if they don't hit their season-long average, Singletary is in line for a rebound that sees him top his prop.
Last Week: 3-2, +1.8 units
Season: 24-14, +11 units