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Aaron Rodgers
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Value Finder

DFS Value Finder: Divisional Round

by Kyle Dvorchak
Updated On: January 15, 2021, 12:36 pm ET

This is a simple, straightforward piece. At the end of the week, I'll look at the best values at each position on each site using our DFS Projections. The sites have combined the Saturday and Sunday games into one main slate so all players listed here will be usable in the same contests.

Lamar Jackson vs. Bills -- FanDuel, $8,000

Jackson got a short break from action in Week 12 while on the reserve/COVID-19 list and has returned with a vengeance since then. Dating back to Week 13, he has averaged 12 carries for 94.3 yards and .8 touchdowns per game. That's on top of throwing 1.8 passing scores per week. The Buffalo/Baltimore game holds a 49-point total and Jackson is a slight underdog for once. That should keep the Ravens playing fast and Jackson dropping back more often than usual. Win or lose, expect another big outing from the reigning MVP this week.

Aaron Rodgers vs. Rams -- DraftKings, $6,900

Rodgers has seven games with four or more passing touchdowns this year. That mark is two more than Russell Wilson, who had the second-most four-score games in 2020. In fact, only Payton Manning has topped seven such games in a season in the history of the NFL. Despite all of this, Rodgers' services can still be had for just $6,900 on DraftKings, making him the site's QB4 by price on the week.

Drew Brees vs. Buccaneers -- Yahoo, $27

Brees is simply too cheap for a quarterback with a 27.5 implied team total. That gives New Orleans the second-highest total of the week with over a point between them and the No. 3 team. He has his best weapon healthy once again and is incredibly cheap compared to the other passers on high-scoring teams. If paying down at QB, Brees is clearly the best option.

Aaron Jones vs. Rams -- FanDuel, $7,800

With the No. 1 seed and a first-round bye on the line, the Packers showed their preferred RB touched distribution in Week 17. Jones saw 64.7% of the Packers’ running back carries and all five of the Rodgers' throws directed to a running back. Despite AJ Dillon dominating the Titans in Week 16, he played on five snaps and saw one carry in the Packers' final regular season game. Jones remains one of the most efficient backs seeing significant volume in the playoffs.

Devin Singletary vs. Ravens -- DraftKings, $4,500

The Bills are going to be without Zack Moss for the remainder of the playoffs and that bodes well for Singletary. He played in three games without Moss early in the season and saw 14 carries plus four targets per game over that stretch. His backups averaged 3.3 rush attempts per game. As a favorite at home, Singletary is the best RB value across all sites this week.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire vs. Browns -- Yahoo, $19

Before injuring his hip in Week 15, CEH was starting to take over the Kansas City backfield once again. In his previous three games, he out-carried Le'Veon Bell 41-10 and out-targeted Bell 9-5. Darrel Williams and fullback Anthony Sherman combined for four targets and no carries in that span. The Chiefs are 10.5-point favorites with a 34-point implied team total this week. CEH will need to get past his hip injury but if he is active, expect him to be the best way to buy touches on the league's best offense.

Michael Thomas vs. Buccaneers -- FanDuel, $7,200

Last week, in Thomas's first game back from IR, he saw seven targets and brought down five for 73 yards and a score. He looked closer to his 2019 form than he had at most points this year but even his limited sample of regular season games was promising. Thomas led all wide receivers in air yards share when healthy this season and is still far below his peak price from last year.

John Brown vs. Ravens -- DraftKings, $4,600

Brown flopped as tournament chalk last week with zero catches on four targets. Despite the ugly day, he remains a solid option for saving money at the receiver position. He ran a route on 95.2 percent of Josh Allen's dropbacks in the Wild Card Round making him an every-down player for a quarterback who finished top-five in passing yards and touchdowns this year.

Cole Beasley vs. Browns -- Yahoo, $15

Somehow, Beasley looks like the more volatile receiver on the Bills this week. Unlike Brown, Beasley only ran a route on 78.6% of Allen's passing plays. This is seemingly the result of him coming off a knee injury that sidelined him in Week 17 and there's no guarantee that he's at full strength for the Divisional Round. If he is close to 100 percent healthy, we know his ceiling is sky-high. Beasley hit the century mark five times in the regular season and that is five more times than Brown. For floor, look to Brown. For upside, Beasley is the cheap Buffalo pass-catcher to target.

Travis Kelce vs. Browns -- FanDuel, $8,500

FanDuel's pricing makes it easier to pay up at tight end than most sites and we'll continue to do that as long as Kelce is on the slate. Kelce set the single-season record for receiving yards by a tight end (1,416) in just 15 games this year and also reached top-five in receptions (105). This shouldn't come as much of a surprise when you realize that he led a Patrick Mahomes offense in target share at 24.7 percent. Keep going back to Kelce on FanDuel and all three sites if your roster can make it work. 

Tyler Higbee vs. Packers -- DraftKings, $3,000

Of the affordable tight end option available in the Divisional Round, Higbee is the only one who sticks out on DraftKings. His 20 routes last week were six more than Gerald Everett and gave him a 69 percent route rate. In the final three weeks of the regular season, Higbee saw his role start to grow. He posted a 14.3 percent target share and had a higher average depth of target than all three of LA's starting wideouts. 

Austin Hooper vs. Chiefs -- Yahoo, $15

Even though Cleveland is viewed as a run-first offense, they aren't going to have much say in the matter if Vegas is correct in making them 10.5-point underdogs to the Chiefs this week. The Browns run the ball at a top-five rate but Kevin Stefanski knows to play aggressively when trailing. The Browns pass on 52 percent of their plays on average but that mark jumps by 10 percent when trailing by more than a field goal. Hooper played on 90 percent of Cleveland's snaps last week and saw 11 targets. Expect him to play a similar role this week as the Browns battle from a massive deficit. 

Kyle Dvorchak

Kyle Dvorchak is a writer for Rotoworld and half of the other sites on the internet. He loves most Big 12 quarterbacks, misses the XFL and can be found on @kyletweetshere.